German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread

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In Leipzig 19.4% of eligible voters voted by mail (2013: 13.5%).
until 10 o'clock 8.2% voted (2013: 7.3%). Turnout in Leipzig was 67,9% last time (it was 71.5% in Germany). So turnout should be up in the end. Weather here is grey, but it's not raining. And in relation to the last days it is relatively warm. We were voting half past eight and did see some voters but no spectacular numbers. The first bulk comes normally between ten and twelfe.

Wow! My turnout prediction (81.5%) doesn't seem that off.

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I assume high turnout like this will work in favor of SPD?

No. Why ?

All the state elections also had higher turnout and the SPD collapsed ...

I was thinking of elections of 1998 2002 and 2005 where we had high turnout and SPD over-performed in all these 3 elections. 

You're right. But that is history.
In all the Landtag elections in the last three years, the AfD availed itself of higher turnout.

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There could also be some anti-AfD-mobilisation effect. We will start to see what happens in about three and a half hours.

Leipzig turnout curve unchanged. About six per cent up by 2 o'clock with postal ballots.

Leipzig is an Antifa stronghold embraced by a very right-wing area, so high turnout could redound to the Left's advantage.

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It's 3pm.

Time for coffee and cake !

By the way, what time is displayed at the top of this page?

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The state of Rheinland-Pfalz also reports high turnout (+8% compared with 2013, incl. postal ballots).

http://www.meine-vrm.de/politik/rheinland-pfalz/rheinland-pfalz-verzeichnet-deutlich-hoehere-wahlbeteiligung_18202453.htm

Thats CDU territory at the national level...no?

14/16 states voted for CDU/CSU the last time, only Hamburg and Bremen for the SPD.

But the SPD is usually pretty strong in Rheinland-Pfalz as well.

Rhineland-Palatinate is the only "Americanized" Land in terms of election. It has been an SPD stronghold in statewide elections since 1993, but countrywide it overwhelmingly votes CDU; only in 1998 a narrow plurality voted SPD.

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Is there anything in Munich today that would explain the rise in turnout ?

79.8% with 2 hours to go. That is up by 16.6% compared with 2013 (!!!).

Maybe all PARTEI members have moved to Munich.

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As usual when he's doing the pre-election broadcast, ARD's Jörg Schönenborn's words reveal quite a lot if you read between the lines: While he obviously didn't cite any specific figures, he just said that we might need to rethink the definition of the word "grand" with regards to the term "Grand Coalition" and this election's results. This seems to suggest a very strong AfD and a very weak SPD performance in my view.

You can receive ARD in Switzerland?

And yes, I thought very often that I could interpret something into Schönenborn's words, and in hindsight I had read between the lines quite rightly...

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Any chance of a zu Guttenberg comeback as a minister btw? There was quite a lot of hype after he returned to campaign for the CSU (and I'd rather see him as the next chancellor than a Merkel clone, but I'm afraid that ship has sailed )

I think he rather becomes the next Bavarian minister president.

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The GREENS outperformed Linke?!?!?!

Many former Linke voters turned to the AfD.

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If I’m not mistaken would t this be the worst result for the  CDU/CSU in the history of Germany ?

Close. They got 33% in 2009.

No. In 1949 the Union got 31.0%.
Second worse result for the CSU btw.

Year	Chancellor candidate	CSU top candidate	Union (PV)	Union (%)	CSU (PV)	CSU (% fed.)	CSU (% Bav.)	CSU share
1949	Konrad Adenauer	Hanns Seidel	7,359,084	31.0%	1,380,448	5.8%	29.2%	18.8%
1953	Konrad Adenauer	Fritz Schäffer	12,443,981	45.2%	2,427,387	8.9%	47.8%	19.5%
19571)	Konrad Adenauer	Fritz Schäffer	15,008,399	50.2%	3,133,060	10.5%	57.2%	20.9%
1961	Konrad Adenauer	Franz J. Strauß	14,298,372	45.3%	3,014,471	9.6%	54.9%	21.1%
1965	Ludwig Erhard	Franz J. Strauß	15,524,068	47.6%	3,136,506	9.6%	55.6%	20.2%
1969	Kurt G. Kiesinger	Franz J. Strauß	15,195,187	46.1%	3,115,652	9.5%	54.4%	20.5%
19722)	Rainer Barzel	Franz J. Strauß	16,806,020	44.9%	3,615,183	9.7%	55.1%	21.5%
1976	Helmut Kohl	Franz J. Strauß	18,394,801	48.6%	4,027,499	10.6%	60.0%	21.9%
1980	Franz J. Strauß	Franz J. Strauß	16,897,659	44.5%	3,908,459	10.3%	57.6%	23.1%
1983	Helmut Kohl	Franz J. Strauß	18,998,545	48.8%	4,140,865	10.6%	59.5%	21.8%
1987	Helmut Kohl	Franz J. Strauß	16,761,572	44.3%	3,715,827	9.8%	55.1%	22.2%
19903)	Helmut Kohl	Theo Waigel	20,358,096	43.8%	3,302,980	7.1%	51.9%	16.2%
1994	Helmut Kohl	Theo Waigel	19,517,156	41.4%	3,427,196	7.3%	51.2%	17.6%
1998	Helmut Kohl	Theo Waigel	17,329,388	35.1%	3,324,480	6.7%	47.7%	19.2%
2002	Edmund Stoiber	Edmund Stoiber	18,482,641	38.5%	4,315,080	9.0%	58.6%	23.3%
2005	Angela Merkel	Edmund Stoiber	16,631,049	35.2%	3,494,309	7.4%	49.2%	21.0%
2009	Angela Merkel	Peter Ramsauer	14,658,515	33.8%	2,830,238	6.5%	42.5%	19.3%
2013	Angela Merkel	Gerda Hasselfeldt	18,165,446	41.5%	3,243,569	7.4%	49.3%	17.9%

1) First election after the Saarland's reunification with West Germany. Only time the CSU also competed outside of Bavaria; the federal CSU result includes the Saarland votes.
2) The voting age had been lowered from 21 to 18, hence the marked increase in votes.
3) First election after Reunification, hence the large increase in votes.

PS: If you wanna know how great pains I took to create this chart, take a look at the source code... 😓

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If you only count post reunification results it's the worst though, but Hades is right, I forgot about 1949. It's funny how Germany started about with quite a lot of parties in 1949, but gradually moved to having only 3 (or 4 if you count CSU) parties represented in parliament by the early 60s.

That's because in the very first election a party only needed 5% in a single Land (and not in the whole of Germany).

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1.2 million former non-voters voted AfD.

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Where we can find official results?

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/bundestagswahlen/2017/ergebnisse/bund-99.html

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Here are some statistics about the election:

http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2017-09-24-BT-DE/index.shtml

Here can you find a map of the district winners:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2017-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1167247.html

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East Germany forecast:

Do you think the AfD could have received a plurality in Saxony (and maybe in a second Land)?

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It seems CDU is increasing slightly in the new projection while AFD is slightly decreasing. Hope this trend continues.

Same. Also, I guess Jamaica will hurt Greens in the next election, no? Why would they want it?

They've been in opposition for more than a decade.

The same was true for the FDP in 2009...

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turnout at 76.5% (+5%) according to ZDF

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I assume by Merkel's record, both the FDP and Greens will fall out of parliament next election?

CDU/CSU majority with Jens SPAHN as chancellor?

🤢Perish the thought!🤢

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What will the green demand in the coalition talks?

Probably no upper limit for new refugees, Diesel ban, state funding of electric vehicles and class action.

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Where is there a live map?

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2017-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1167247.html

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What will the green demand in the coalition talks?

Probably no upper limit for new refugees, Diesel ban, state funding of electric vehicles and class action.

What do you mean by "class action"?

Musterfeststellungsklage.
Class action is the only translation I found.

If several people want to sue a company they have to do it person by person.
By contrast, in the US several people can build a group and sue the company as one unit.

This issue has risen after the diesel scandal.

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Where is there a live map?

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2017-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1167247.html

There doesn't appear to be any results though....

It's like in the UK: Only after a district result as a whole has been officially approved it will be published.

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Where is there a live map?

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2017-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1167247.html

There doesn't appear to be any results though....

Votes have to be counted, you know?

But to be fair, a live result map like on CNN or New York Times is urgently needed in Europe.

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Do we have some data about outflows and inflows of electorate between parties?

http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2017-09-24-BT-DE/analyse-wanderung.shtml#11_Wanderung_UNION

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Please tell me how Jamaica will not be suicide for the Greens.

 
 
Won't lie to you. The Greens are dead meat. And honestly I don't see yet how they will form a coalition to begin with. Seehofer already has declared that the CSU will go hard left to close the gap opened for the AfD but that is something not even the " our ideals"-party of the Greens will go with.

It's theoretically possible that the CSU will not join the Jamaica coalition.