German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The official results site is usually decent. Elsewhere results are usually presented very clearly on www.election.de

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CDU: 32,5 Prozent / SPD: 20,0 Prozent / Linkspartei: 9,0 Prozent / Grüne: 9,5 Prozent / FDP: 10,5 Prozent / AfD: 13,5 Prozent

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This Bundestag election will be the first, since the end of Nazi era in 1945, in which a far-right party enters the German parliament (AfD) - a trend we are seeing in many places in Europe.

Wrong: far-right parties won seats in the first three Bundestag elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The good news for the SPD is that as sh!t as their result is it's not The story, lol.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And wasn't the very early FDP quite nationalist?

It was an unholy coalition of principled liberals and, yes, people of that general leaning.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This Bundestag election will be the first, since the end of Nazi era in 1945, in which a far-right party enters the German parliament (AfD) - a trend we are seeing in many places in Europe.

Wrong: far-right parties won seats in the first three Bundestag elections.

I just checked the 1949, 1953 and 1957 German election results and was unable to discern same. Care to name 'em?

The DP (German Party) was a right-wing nationalist party, the Bloc of Expellees was as well, and in 1949 the two other very right wing parties (the German Right Party and the Economic Reconstruction Union) also won seats. There were also right-wing elements in the early FDP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The SPD still is 3.5 times as big as our social democratic party, it can always be worse

On the other hand the SPD is roughly tied with our social democratic party, and I though that ours was already close to dying.

The SPD will be fine now they have a chance to actually re-orientate themselves, though should be kicking themselves for staying in the coalition throughout the year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also says to fight for Saxony. (AKA no talks until Oct. 15)

Lower Saxony

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems CDU is increasing slightly in the new projection while AFD is slightly decreasing. Hope this trend continues.

Same. Also, I guess Jamaica will hurt Greens in the next election, no? Why would they want it?

They've been in opposition for more than a decade.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The same was true for the FDP in 2009...

Quite so. And that is why they enthusiastically bounded into government. Remember that for politicians power is the thing and elections are but a means of access.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Where is there a live map?

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2017-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1167247.html

There doesn't appear to be any results though....

Votes have to be counted, you know?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some people on twitter are saying that SPD just by going into opposition and turning more leftwing(idk how thats going to work considering Schulz has been SPD's most leftwing leader since pre-Schroder) will regain AfD voters just like Labour in the UK did with UKIP voters.

I think anyone suggesting that a loss of votes to the AfD is the problem is immediately resorting to inane clichés rather than the actual situation. Whether they swing left or right the main thing for the SPD is to be distinctive (because unless you're distinctive how on earth can you convince people that you're a credible alternative government?), which they were not in the 2005-09 Bundestag and which they were not in the 2013-17 Bundestag either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So far Die Linke (18,5%) is ahead of the SPD (18,3%) in Berlin. Holy balls.

Well it isn't as if that hasn't happened before. Quite a few close fptp races.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In retrospect it seems SPD should have formed a SPD-Green-Linke government in 2013.  The SPD fear of losing the middle ground if it forms an alliance with Linke was irrelevant since not forming such an alliance did not fetch it one Centrist vote relative to 2013.  It just lost votes to AfD, Greens, Linke, and FDP across the board.

Going into another Grand Coalition was clearly an error on the part of both parties involved, as neither wished to make a gamble (i.e. the CDU had the numbers to tough out a minority, but that too went against norms). Will be interesting - in terms of longer term political culture - to see if there's a change in attitudes now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, this might be a small part of the explanation. The bigger part of the explanation would be a significant part of the population that has been swinging over the last 130 years between CSU (and its predecessors), abstention (e.g. in 2013) and various populist, centrist and far-right outfits (Bavarian Peasants' League, NSDAP, Bavaria Party, The Republicans, Free Voters and now the AfD). And historically being dirt-poor, backwards and living with an inferiority complex.

A very useful post and will hopefully be informative to most reading the thread, but I fear the poster it was directed at cares only for Hot Takes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it true the CDU is outperforming the exit polls?

Not significantly, no.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You love me really:



As always the risk of minor inconsistencies with rounding etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's a remarkably arrogant remark from a representative of such a new party, even if on this occasion it may be technically true.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I went a little mad with the keys because why the Hell not...








As always there's a risk of a few errors, while the nature of this sort of map means that minor inconsistencies are hard to entirely avoid. Who care tho.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note that the keys are not identical to those for the list maps and in some cases are very different.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's unusual about the big rural seat in Lower Saxony along the border between East and West where the Greens did so well? And what about that seat in NRW where the FDP had its best result?

1. That's Lüchow-Dannenberg - Lüneburg; Lüneburg is a university town and the surrounding countryside, the Wendland, has a certain Alternative undercurrent and is a traditional Green stronghold.

2. The FDP candidate in Rheinisch-Bergischer Kreis was one Christian Lindner, who happens to be the party's leader.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With the aim of allowing certain patterns to be Seen with greater Clarity I do also present...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

List vote percentages...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Full Size