German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread

[Yeahsayyeah]

In Leipzig 19.4% of eligible voters voted by mail (2013: 13.5%).
until 10 o'clock 8.2% voted (2013: 7.3%). Turnout in Leipzig was 67,9% last time (it was 71.5% in Germany). So turnout should be up in the end. Weather here is grey, but it's not raining. And in relation to the last days it is relatively warm. We were voting half past eight and did see some voters but no spectacular numbers. The first bulk comes normally between ten and twelfe.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Saxony does not include postal ballots in their numbers.

In the city of Dresden, Mail voting is up by 16.9 to 22.9 per cent but today's voting seems to collapse a bit and is down (at twelve) from 25.8 to 21.6.

In Leipzig numbers for on-the-day voting mirror 2013, but as I said, mail ballots are up a lot.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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There could also be some anti-AfD-mobilisation effect. We will start to see what happens in about three and a half hours.

Leipzig turnout curve unchanged. About six per cent up by 2 o'clock with postal ballots.

[Yeahsayyeah]

But the "Antifa" is exactly 0.1 per cent of the population or something... ;-)

Actually it could be a wash. There are still very deprived parts of the city where the AfD could be strong. On the other hand Leipzig is one of the fastest growing and changing big cities in Germany with the influx of many younger people who come for studying, apprenticeship, work and so on. This probably does account for the higher turnout.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Bloomberg says.  ARD indicates that AfD might come in first in Saxony.   Not sure if they mean Saxon or Saxony-Anhalt

They mean Saxony, but the results skew rural at the moment, because in Saxony we just know about muncipalities that are fully counted.

AfD is ten points behind CDU in Sachsen-Anhalt.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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state sites

Sachsen-Anhalt
http://www.statistik.sachsen-anhalt.de/wahlen/bt17/index.html

Sachsen
https://www.statistik.sachsen.de/wpr_neu/pkg_s10_erg_lw.prc_erg_lw?p_bz_bzid=BW17&p_ebene=SN&p_ort=14

Thüringen
http://www.wahlen.thueringen.de/datenbank/wahl1/wahl.asp?wahlart=BW&wJahr=2017&zeigeErg=Land

Berlin
https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BU2017/afspraes/uebersicht_gemeinde-11000000-berlin_gesamt.html

Brandenburg
https://www.wahlergebnisse.brandenburg.de/wahlen/BU2017/ergebnis/ergebLandBB.asp?sel1=2156&sel2=0661

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
https://wahlen.mvnet.de/dateien/atlanten/ergebnisse.2017/bundestagswahl.html

[Yeahsayyeah]

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The Bavarian state site is pointless, because it has not more information than the Bundeswahlleiter.

München is here

https://wahlen-muenchen.de/ergebnisse/20170924bundestagswahl/

[Yeahsayyeah]

CDU has about 25000 votes more than AfD in Leipzig, and 2000 (sic) in Dresden. Should be enough for a narrow CDU "victory".

Actually the most right wing CDU state party lost the most, and the CSU lost bigly to the AfD. I don't think, that's a coincidence.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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I would not call it crushed, but it's a small but significant lead in Leipzig, which is a seventh of the population, so I think it will be enough. And in some other that are not counted yet, AfD should also slightly underperform.

[Yeahsayyeah]

http://www.leipzig.de/buergerservice-und-verwaltung/wahlen-in-leipzig/bundestagswahlen/bundestagswahl-2017/wahlergebnis/#wk-2

Die Linke seems to win Leipzig II. And Leipzig is different to Dresden and especially Chemnitz for many reasons.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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It's not THAT easy. There is a left-wing majority in the Dresden city parliament, for instance. But Dresden has always been more the city of the kings of Saxony, their nobles and servants. And it's part of the "valley of the clueless" that had no access to western television by geography.
Leipzig has always been more a center of commerce, trade, fabrication, science, the important trade fairs, and so it always some cosmopolitan streak and had not totally lost that until 1989.

Of course it was also hit by the stagnation and decay of the GDR and by the shock therapy afterwards.

Chemnitz is in essence just a hard hit big industrial town.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Just curious, why the heck do they call it the "jamacia" coalition?

Because Schwampel sounds like some kind of giplets.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Lolwut

So she does probably think she has enough people on the board for her own faction. Or else it would not make to much sense.

I also noticed a very staatstragend tone in her comments yesterday, that was actually new, in my opinion.

[Yeahsayyeah]

From the cool graphics section:

regional majorities for typical coalitions, pictured as landmasses and ocean

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl-2017-wo-eine-jamaika-koalition-eine-mehrheit-hat-und-wo-nicht-a-1168632.html

A more detailed model of voters migration

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/wahlergebnisse-volksparteien-laufen-waehler-weg-afd-und-fdp-profitieren-a-1169611.html

[Yeahsayyeah]

The compensation seats are not only because of the CSU. There have been actually 46 overhang seats.

CDU: 36
in Baden-Württemberg (11), Sachsen-Anhalt (4), Brandenburg (3), Sachsen (3), Hessen (3), Thüringen (3), Rheinland-Pfalz (3), Schleswig-Holstein (3), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2), Saarland (1)

CSU: 7

SPD: 3
in Hamburg (2) and Bremen (1)

[Yeahsayyeah]

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It would not really work nowadays, because if you win a district and are not affiliated with a party that gets proportional representation, the list votes of the district winner's voters are declared obsolete and won't influence the proportional representation.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Why is Saarland a Western stronghold for Die Linke?

It's a declining former coal and steel industrial area. And It's the home of Oskar Lafontaine and the state he has been prime minister of from 1985 to 1998.