Predict the County Swings - Arizona

[GlobeSoc]

This is my first thread in a series of (hopefully) 50 discussing predicted 2020 swings within the states and the assumptions we use to get them, as well as sharing prediction maps we create.

A (low-quality ) blank map for you guys to create predictions:


My swing prediction:


My assumptions are:
1. Hispanic turnout rises
2. Hispanics swing r
3. Native Americans stagnate/swing slightly r
4. Rural whites slightly swing d
5. Suburban whites swing r

[ProgressiveCanadian]

South Arizona will continue to swing away from Republicans.

[GlobeSoc]

South Arizona will continue to swing away from Republicans.

Imma check out Pima real quick

Yeah Pima will(thank university turnout increases), but barely:


I stand by the other southern swings.

[GlobeSoc]

My assumptions are:
1. Hispanic turnout rises
Yes

2. Hispanics swing r
No!

3. Native Americans stagnate/swing slightly r
Why?

4. Rural whites slightly swing d
Maybe

5. Suburban whites swing r

Nah

My projected swing (overall results):
Apache County +5D (+39D)
Cochise County +1R (+22R)
Coconino County +5 D (+24D)
Gila County +2R (+34R)
Graham County +1D (+37R)
Greenlee County +1D (+23R)
La Paz County +2D (+39R)
Maricopa County +5D (+2D)
Mohave County +2R (+53R)
Navajo County +6D (+4R)
Pima County +4D (+17D)
Pinal County +2D (+17R)
Santa Cruz County +4D (+51D)
Yavapai County +1D (+32R)
Yuma County +5D (+4D)

Arizona Overall +4D (+1D)

Possible with Trump running for re-election, but even then he should do ok in AZ

[Del Tachi]

Maricopa will swing/trend R.  Suburban whites there will come back into the fold.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Maricopa will swing/trend R.  Suburban whites there will come back into the fold.

Not on a presidential level. I don't see why most everyone has come to a consensus that 45 will do better with white moderate surbanites next time, sad!

[Webnicz]

If you haven't noticed yet, I LOVE talking about local politics of my beautiful home state of Arizona, I try to put insight on every AZ related thread, so here goes for this one. AZ is a state that has increasingly gotten more attention(finally) as we reach bellwether status due to D trends. Shockingly despite AZ being the 3rd to last state being called (was not projected until Thursday after the election) no commentators in the mainstream media did not give the time of day to AZ on election night, spent more time talking about an unclose election in Ohio than a close one in AZ.

I can tell you Mohave county, Graham, La Paz, Gila counties will not swing D, in fact they will continue to swing R. Rural folk in Arizona (in these counties mentioned anyway) are very tough for Dems to win over, some were won by Bill Clinton but times have changed

Folks in Coconino county are rural but lean D, the flagstaff area along with the Navajo nation take part in this. Navajo county is very swingy down ballot, gave O'Halleran a big lead and voted for Dems in 2014. This is the same case for Greenlee county where copper mining plays a huge role in the economy, it has trended R (heavily) at the presidential level but still has potential for down ballot Dems like Goddard in '14. Similarly to Navajo these folks give Dems a second look down ballot but never at the presidential level. Jeff Flake barely hung onto Greenlee in '12

In regards to D swings, I hope nobody on this site has forgotten about the Arpaio pardon. Many of you think this issue will disappear but this issue is still talked about on the daily in local media and in conversations here in Maricopa County. For that reason Maricopa will likely see the largest D swing of all counties, not more than 5% though, but this pardon changes everything, we will be seeing ads shortly tying every republican to Arpaio who is the most hated man in the area by moderates.

Yuma County will also see a slight D trend that could but D's over the edge.

Pima trends D slightly.Contrary to belief, Tucson is actually the only city in the county that leans Dem, all the others like the suburbs i.e Oro Valley are actually conservative, which means The Dems are reaching their capacity in Pima, they still have room but not much left, I would expect trump to receive the same 39-40% while Dems hold and pick up 1-2% of Johnson/stein voters in the county and that would be the De max.

The others (Apache, Cochise, Yavapai,Santa Cruz) will possibly see no change in the current status.

[5280]

Southern AZ will swing D along with Coconino county, the rest will stay the same or swing R.