How Did Division I-A College Football Cities Vote in 2016?

[NOVA Green]

Big 10 East Conference:

University of Michigan- Ann Arbor:

Ann, Arbor Michigan:

Campus/Dorm Vote:

Total Vote: 6,943--- 6,010 HRC (86.6% Dem), 634 DJT (9.1% Rep), 299 Others (4.3%)

+ 77.5% Dem

Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 5,515--- 4,779 (86.7% Dem), 521 DJT (9.4% Rep), 215 Other (3.9%)

+ 77.3% Dem

Combined Campus/Off Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 12,458---- 10,789 (86.6% Dem), 1,155 (9.3% Rep), 514 Others (4.1%)

+ 77.3% Dem

Notes/Comments/Observations:


1.) The overlapping of overwhelmingly Undergrad student precincts both "Campus and Off-Campus" matches more directly with Census Data than in some other places we have examined in detail to date....

Additionally the "Dorm Vote" vs heavily Undergrad "Off-Campus" precincts is a bit more clear cut than some other municipalities.

2.) The gaps between Dorm/Campus voters and off-campus Undergrad voters are virtually non-existent, which is similar to what we have seen in most of the PAC-12 (WSU and OSU stand out, mainly because these smaller communities have fewer precincts, so there is likely a bit more of a Townie/Grad Student/Professor blend mixed in).

3.) We have seen even larger swings in some University towns within the Big 12 (Norman, Ames, and Manhattan stand out).

4.) Undergrad Students at the University of Michigan voted more heavily Democratic than any campus in the Big 12 or the PAC-12 South, and even more so than 4/6 in PAC-12 North (UW, WSU, U of O, and OSU).... Now much of this likely because of the high 3rd Party voting numbers in several of these University Communities, but Trump's 9% at University of Michigan Campus Precincts was much lower than that in Pullman and Corvallis, and UCLA is the only place in PAC-12 South where Trump only matched his 9% numbers from University of Michigan.

5.) Interestingly enough Trump didn't lose a single Undergrad Precinct in University of Michigan to 3rd Party Votes, unlike quite a few of those in the West Coast...

6.) Obviously one of the most interesting things is again the contrast between the overwhelming rejection of Trump among University Students here, versus his overall performance in the Michigan, which he narrowly won as we all know....

Now, the University of Michigan does have a founding mission to provide affordable and quality education to residents of the State from all economic backgrounds, and are now grappling with the question as to how to appeal to many residents of Michigan, that they are actually a University of the People, and that yes College Education will be affordable for "In-State Students", as opposed to the trend where all of these Universities are increasingly chasing the out-of-state student dollar where they get 2 times the payment for the same student....

https://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-education/2017/11/09/michigans-flagship-tries-to-convince-working-class-students-they-belong-223259

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/09/university-of-michigan-admissions-low-income-244420

Now before anyone gets in a tiff, neighboring Working-Class Ypsilani voted HRC > Trump by about the same margins as Ann Arbor (83-13 D)    + 70 Dem

[NOVA Green]

Big 10 East- Conference:

Penn State University:

State College, Pennsylvania:

Dorm/Campus Vote:

Total Votes--- 9,052--- 5,651 HRC (62.4% Dem), 2,765 DJT (30.5% Rep), 636 Other (7.0%)

+ 31.9% Dem

Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Votes--- 5,290--- 3,348 HRC (63.3% Dem), 1,599 (30.2% Rep), 343 (6.5%)

+ 33.1% Dem

Total Undergrad Student Vote:

Total Vote: 14,342--- 8,999 HRC (62.7% Dem), 4,364 (30.4% Rep), 979 Other (6.8%)

Notes/Comments/Observations:

1.) Precinct maps were much more closely aligned than in many other University Communities between the "Campus Vote" and "Off Campus Vote"....

This is likely a result of being a fairly compact University City, combined with a significant amount of on-campus student housing. As we have seen in many other heavily concentrated University precincts, election results tend to align more closely between campus precincts and off-campus undergrad precincts, than those where the Off-Camps University Undergrad population is more scattered, and sometimes intermingled with heavily Townie and/or Grad Student type precincts.

2.) The City itself appears to have voted significantly to the "Left" of the Undergrad Student vote, which is fairly unusual based upon those University Communities we have examined thus far....

Some of this is likely because of several precincts on the Northwestern edge of State College that have a significant "Professor Population", "Grad Student" populations more concentrated in the Eastern Part of the City, as well as "Townies" that are not College Students, Professors, etc that support the student based economy in precincts that are more heavily African-American and Latino-American than the City average, as well as "White" Union employees that work at PSU, that tend to be a bit more Democratic because of the better benefits and working-conditions that come with a Union Card.

3.) Penn State so far appears to be one the least Democratic Universities in "Northern States" we have examined thus far....

University of Utah deserves an asterix, Iowa State University was certainly more Republican than Penn State, and then of course we have Kansas State, which if we look at from the Civil War was "Bleeding Kansas", and arguably one of the indirect triggers for that most brutal of American Wars.

4.) Considering that this election was narrowly decided by a small number of voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, this obviously raises a much larger question:

To what extent did: 

A.) A decline in College Student Voter turnout contribute to HRC's loss in PA,WI, MI  ?

B.) An increase in 3rd Party Voting contribute to HRC's loss in PA, WI, MI?

C.) A swing towards Trump, namely Undergrad Millennials voting significantly more Republican (As opposed to just 3rd Party defection) contributed to HRC's loss in PA, WI, MI?

Although obviously these questions are not something where just one or two University campuses can answer, it will be interesting to try to pull compare/contrast numbers from '12 to '16 to see how this plays in not only I-A football campus area precincts, but also other College/University precincts within these states (Plus Ohio as well) to see if it was the Younger Millennial vote that cost HRC the election....  (Ok, slightly tongue in cheek, but since many are blaming African-American turnout in PA, WI, MI for HRCs loss, others condemn the "betrayal" of Democratic leaning WWC Union voters in these States for Trump's win, it's fair to flip the tables, and say "What about the Youth Vote"?

5.) Even though I haven't run the numbers yet for Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana University, and Rutgers, I would be absolutely floored if Penn State wasn't the most Republican and least Democratic University in the Big 10-East

6.) Side note.... gap between the City of State College and surrounding areas is astounding....

Trump won precincts outside of State College by some 5k Votes, and HRC won the City by about 7.3k...

Something tells me that most likely the precincts outside of the City swung heavily Trump compared to '12, and the College Students swung towards HRC, despite the narrative on Atlas that many have regarding "older Millennials are more Democratic than Younger Millennial shtick that some Atlas posters have based upon their Exit polling data....

"Fake News"   ?    Maybe or maybe not....

[NOVA Green]

Big 10 East:

THE Ohio State University:

Columbus, Ohio:

Dorm/Campus Vote:

Total Vote--- 10,081--- 7,201 HRC (71.4% Dem), 2,244 DJT (22.3% Rep), 636 Other (6.3%)

+ 49.1% Dem

Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 6,508--- 4,645 HRC (71.4% Dem), 1,358 DJT (20.9% Rep), 505 Other (10.9%)

+ 50.5% Dem

Combined Campus and Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 16,589--- 11,846 HRC (71.4% Dem), 3,602 DJT (21.7% Rep), 1,141 Other (6.9%)

+ 49.7% Dem

Notes/Comments/Observations:

1.) Damn, I love these large Midwest Universities, where a good chunk of students live in the dorms and vote locally!!!

Ohio State University is a sprawling Campus, and not only do a good chunk of the students live on-campus, but quite a few in apartments and shared row-house style structures within the immediate  surrounding area, rather than commuting from outside the area as tends to be the case in many "Sunbelt" University areas....

The relative compactness of the student vote and sheer number of precincts, made it easier to overlay with the University/ Off-Campus than in some other places reviewed thus far....

There were a few precincts that I included in the Campus Vote, where potentially a majority of the population were off-campus, because it was too difficult to separate the split of the population within those precincts, but I don't think it would have shifted the numbers too much on the campus/off-campus scale.

2.) There isn't much of a voting gap between the Undergrad Student Population and the City of Columbus (70- 25 D) than in many other communities examined thus far, especially considering that the University is just but one big player in a City of almost 900k...

3.) It also puts Ohio State ahead of two schools in the PAC-12 (Excluding University of Utah), almost every school in the Big 12, except UT-Austin and Kansas University, and of course Penn State with the Big 10-East.

4.) Again Ohio State would be interesting to compare against 2012 election results, to see what net total vote margins and percentage margins shifted between '12 and '16....

HRC bagging an 8k+ vote margin over Trump in OSU precincts looks pretty impressive, but how did these numbers shift between '08>'12>16, especially in a State which one would typically expect to be close in a Presidential election?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

NOVA Green, you might want to also look at which schools have an on-campus polling place, because those might have a higher proportion of students vote on campus.  I still have my questions about the accuracy of on-campus precincts (with the points I mentioned upthread), but this is a really interesting project.

Also, I think 2012 numbers would be really interesting, because, using my Facebook feed as a judge (which is like 80-85% Republican and mostly consists of ideological conservatives between 18 and 25 from well-off to wealthy families around the country who attend(ed) these sorts of major universities), probably a quarter of the conservatives didn't vote or voted third-party or write-in as a protest.  I think Rubio probably does 15 points better (perhaps even more) than Trump against Hillary nationwide with these groups.  But, my finding of no gap between 2012 and 2016 in campus precincts in Tennessee puts either this theory or campus precincts into question (but since few students in Tennessee seem to vote on campus, perhaps the Midwest would be a better test of this).

[NOVA Green]

NOVA Green, you might want to also look at which schools have an on-campus polling place, because those might have a higher proportion of students vote on campus.  I still have my questions about the accuracy of on-campus precincts (with the points I mentioned upthread), but this is a really interesting project.

Also, I think 2012 numbers would be really interesting, because, using my Facebook feed as a judge (which is like 80-85% Republican and mostly consists of ideological conservatives between 18 and 25 from well-off to wealthy families around the country who attend(ed) these sorts of major universities), probably a quarter of the conservatives didn't vote or voted third-party or write-in as a protest.  I think Rubio probably does 15 points better (perhaps even more) than Trump against Hillary nationwide with these groups.  But, my finding of no gap between 2012 and 2016 in campus precincts in Tennessee puts either this theory or campus precincts into question (but since few students in Tennessee seem to vote on campus, perhaps the Midwest would be a better test of this).

Extreme Conservative---- Glad to see you back around these parts!

Missed your contributions old friend   

My sincere apologies for not directly responding earlier on some various items and points that you made regarding Alabama University precincts, DDHQ projection numbers "Using the One Mile Rule???" (Not your methodological flaw but theirs (Sorry RI--- No dis intended...    )

So.... apologies if I am misinterpreting your statements but to summarize what I think your are suggesting is this:

1.) 2012 vs 2016 compare/contrast by University precincts might likely suggest that there was a significant decrease of total voter turnout among Romney '12 voters, combined with an increase of 3rd Party voting among this 'Pub leaning Demographic....

2.) You have already invested a significant amount of time and energy looking at Precinct level results from the Great State of Tennessee...

This is certainly a very worthwhile subject of continued exploration (Let's face it Division 1-A football communities is just one small fragment of overall College Campus communities nationally, and honestly I didn't invest tons of time looking at the results, mainly because I wanted to finish one project before moving on the next one....)

Maybe, if you don't mind rolling the raw precinct numbers for Tennessee based upon your research into an Excel and convert to a Powerpoint, might make it a bit easier for some of the Laymen and Women around these parts....

Hell, if Dems can't run a decent dawg in Tennessee a year, two or three down the line, how can they represent being a national party?

3.) You know, I've never disagreed with you about Rubio that much, and he did play very well as a foil to Trump in the former States of the Old Confederacy (Mainly because Super Tuesday caused him to drop out in a shrinking field after Florida).... Out West and Mid-West Kasich took up the torch as the "Normal Republican in the Race", and even though Cruz and Kasich had officially dropped out of the race Trump got something like only 55% of the vote in the Oregon Republican Primary in late May '16.....

4.) Now back to Tennessee, here is an old classic Rock 'N Roll song by the Grateful Dead, just recently played by Eric Church and up and comin' Country singer....   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ks_kelfIGI&list=RD3Ks_kelfIGI

Here's an original Grateful Dead jam live cover from Nashville....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWwicgg0SQI&index=1&list=RDqWwicgg0SQI

If Dems can't win "Tennessee Jed" type voters, like many of Coworkers, Friends, and Family members on items such as reasonable restrictions on Guns, differences of opinions on Reproductive Right Issues, chill with LGTBQ equality, generally Anti-Inverventionist but patriotic, they might have a few issues going forward into '18 and '20....

Something tells me that Tennessee is potentially in the firing line of unexpected 2018 and 2020 Partisan flips...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ks_kelfIGI

[NOVA Green]

Big 10- East:

Michigan State University:

East Lansing, Michigan:

Dorm/Campus Vote:

Total Vote: 4,514---  3,076 HRC (68.1% Dem), 1,121 DJT (24.8% Rep), 317 Others (7.0%)

+ 43.3% Dem

Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 8,210--- 5,962 HRC (72.6% Dem), 1,746 DJT (21.3% Rep), 502 Others (6.1%)

+ 51.3% Dem

Combined Campus & Undergrad Student Vote:

Total Vote: 12,724--- 9,038 HRC (71.0% Dem), 2,867 (22.5% Rep), 819 Others (6.4%)

+ 48.5% Dem


Notes/Comments/Observations:

1.) The precinct data for the MSU campus is pretty straight-forward since basically every precinct South of Grand River Avenue is located 100% on Campus grounds.

2.) The Off-Campus precinct coding is a bit trickier, since the precincts between Saginaw Street /78 to the North and Grand River Ave to the South contain a huge number of Undergrad MSU voters, but the precinct boundaries aren't cleanly aligned to the US Census Tract maps....

3.) Still, East Lansing is an overwhelmingly small College town, and overall the "Off Campus" numbers overlap pretty well with where these voters are located as a significant proportion of the population.

4.) Regardless of how one slices the exact numbers, the MSU campus vote is slightly less Democratic than Ohio State University campus numbers, but well ahead of Penn State numbers....

If we look at the Off-Campus numbers, MSU voted more Democratic than Ohio State University, which is interesting and somewhat unexpected, although again as mentioned above it could also be a factor of MSU off-campus precincts being slightly more "contaminated" by a greater proportion of Grad Student voters than OSU...

5.) Again, will be interesting to compare/contrast 2012 Pres numbers against 2016 numbers looking particularly at turnout and margins to see to what extent the College Student vote in Michigan may or may have not contributed to HRC's loss in Michigan....

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

4.) Again Ohio State would be interesting to compare against 2012 election results, to see what net total vote margins and percentage margins shifted between '12 and '16....

HRC bagging an 8k+ vote margin over Trump in OSU precincts looks pretty impressive, but how did these numbers shift between '08>'12>16, especially in a State which one would typically expect to be close in a Presidential election?

This is pure speculation (I don't have the wherewithal to do any of this analysis myself so I thank you for doing it), but I would guess that Columbus has swung more D since 2000 than the rest of the state. In fact, it may be the only area of the state (other than Cleveland and Cincinatti suburbs maybe) that is trending D right now because it's the fastest growing metro area and becoming one of the economic engines of the state.

[NOVA Green]

4.) Again Ohio State would be interesting to compare against 2012 election results, to see what net total vote margins and percentage margins shifted between '12 and '16....

HRC bagging an 8k+ vote margin over Trump in OSU precincts looks pretty impressive, but how did these numbers shift between '08>'12>16, especially in a State which one would typically expect to be close in a Presidential election?

This is pure speculation (I don't have the wherewithal to do any of this analysis myself so I thank you for doing it), but I would guess that Columbus has swung more D since 2000 than the rest of the state. In fact, it may be the only area of the state (other than Cleveland and Cincinatti suburbs maybe) that is trending D right now because it's the fastest growing metro area and becoming one of the economic engines of the state.

I think we can pretty safely say that Columbus probably has been one, if not the only large City, in Ohio that has been consistently shifting Democratic since 2000, and by significantly larger margins than elsewhere.

So basically in 2016 Columbus accounted for about 61% of the vote in Franklin County, and I think without without going into all of the precinct level data for '00 > '08, it's pretty safe to say that much of the swings and movement within the County will be directly represented in the County level numbers....

Franklin County:

2000: 49-48 D    + 1  D
2004: 54-45 D    + 9  D
2008: 60-39 D    + 21 D
2012: 61-38 D    + 23 D
2016: 60-34 D    + 26 D

Now if we look at the City of Columbus:

2012: 69- 30 D    + 39 D
2016: 70-25  D    + 45 D

I haven't gone through and consolidated the precinct numbers for Columbus in '00/'04/'08, since although I think I have precinct numbers floating around for one or two of these elections in a format easily transferable to Excel (As opposed to data entry from PDFs), it will take me a bit to chase this down, but I think the County level data pretty clearly shows a trend....

Columbus being a fast growing City in Ohio likely plays a role in all of this as you mentioned.... we have been observing similar trending in places like Metro Kansas City for example in recent years, and although much of the Atlas focus has been on fast growing "Sun Belt" areas over the past few election cycles, there are plenty of other Cities/Metro Areas elsewhere in the Country with relatively fast growing populations, that have been trending Dem for awhile as certain types of voters that would have been "Lean Rep Indies" only a decade or so back have moved firmly into the Democratic column....

[NOVA Green]

Big 10- East:

Indiana University:

Bloomington, Indiana:

Campus/Dorm Vote:

Total Vote: 3,859---- 2,808 HRC (72.8% Dem), 791 DJT (20.5% Rep), 260 Others (6.7%)

+ 52.3% Dem

Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 932--- 754 HRC (80.9% Dem), 110 DJT (11.8% Rep), 68 Others (7.3%)

+ 69.1% Dem

Combined Campus/Dorm and Undergrad Student Vote:

Total Vote: 4,791--- 3,562 HRC (74.3% Dem), 901 DJT (18.8% Rep), 328 (6.8%)

+ 55.5% Dem

Notes/Comments/Observation:

1.) The University Campus precincts are fairly consolidated and pretty cleanly overlap with "Dorm Voters", and although there are a few precincts that overlap to some extent with "off-campus", fairly confident overall numbers overall look good when overlapped with University of Indiana dorm precincts....

2.) "Off-Campus" precincts were slightly more problematic when matched against US Census Tract data, so I was extremely conservative in only including three precincts (Two in Bloomington and One in Perry), where the Undergrad Student Vote (Overwhelmingly 18-22) and didn't include several other precincts that although they had a portion of the precinct that was overwhelmingly Dem, also had a good chunk of Census Tract territory that did not appear to be heavily Undergrad.... (Bloomington Precincts # 2, 13,14  & 17 appear to have a significant Undergrad population in certain areas close to Campus).

3.) So again, we have a Midwestern University City/Town, where a large chunk of the Student population lives on campus.... however for a City of 81k, we have only a total of 13.8k Votes cast within the City ?

Although voter turnout in heavily Student precincts was only something like 50-55%, this raises the question of how many students at IU voted via absentee mail ballots in their home counties/cities within Indiana, not to mention how many Undergrads voted remotely via absentee ballots in their homes counties and cities outside of Indiana.

4.) Regardless, Undergrad Student precincts in Bloomington voted more Democrat in '16 than the City at large, and the gap between the "Flagship University" election results and Statewide results is very striking, but hell that would involve a whole separate graphical format powerpoint style slide and additional data to look at this topic at a National level....

Next stop Rutgers- New Brunswick to complete the Big 10- East NOVA Green series.....

[NOVA Green]

Big 10- East:

Rutgers University:

New Brunswick, New Jersey:

Dorm/Campus Vote:

Total Vote: 21,559---- 16,089 HRC (74.6% Dem), 4,654 DJT (21.6% Rep), 816 Others (3.8%)

+ 53.0% Dem

Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 10,350--- 7,435 HRC (71.8% Dem), 2,502 DJT (24.2% Rep), 413 Others (4.0%)

+ 47.6% Dem

Combined Dorm Vote and Undergrad Off Campus Vote:

Total Vote: 31,909--- 23,524 HRC (73.7% Dem),  7,156 DJT (22.4% Rep), 1,229 Others (3.9%)

+ 51.3% Dem

Notes/Comments/Observations:

1.) Rutgers is a massive University institution within New Jersey, but these Campus election results only include the four separate University campuses located within or nearby to New Brunswick ( Cook-Douglas Campus, New Brunswick Campus, Busch Campus, and Livingston Campus)...

2.) Off-Campus precincts become a bit more problematic, simply because the Undergrad Off-Campus student population is more evenly distributed throughout the region, as well as the fact the Rutgers actually does an extremely good job of guaranteeing on-campus student housing, compared to many other Universities, so not only does it save the College Students (Or their parents some bucks in an expensive housing market) but also means that we have fewer "Off Campus" student sprawl compared to some other places....

3.) Interestingly enough despite the reputation of Rutgers as a Liberal Democratic stronghold in my former home-state of Joisey, it placed well behind the University of Michigan and University of Maryland Undergrad Student vote....

Honestly I was expecting to see Rutgers Campus precincts voting closer to PAC-12 numbers and Trump's 22% of the "Dorm Vote" exceeds any numbers in the Conference, other than Arizona State University, where the "Dorm Vote" gave Trump 24% of their total vote....

Actually Trump achieved his highest percentage of the vote for 3rd Place in the Big 10-East, behind Penn State and Michigan State University...

Ok--- compare contrast Big 10- East Graphs/Charts coming up next....

[NOVA Green]

So, let's summarize the results from the Big 10- East in a graphical format....

Here are the results from the Cities/Towns that comprise the Conference...



Here are the results from the Dorm/Campus Vote by University...



Here are the results from Off-Campus heavily Undergrad Precincts:




So what to make of all this???

1.) Obvious outliar that stands out is Penn State, where 30% of the Undergrad Student population voted Trump....

What was it about this student population that caused it to be so heavily Republican, compared to so many other student populations in the region?

2.) We see Trump achieving over 20% of the vote in 5/7 Big 10-East campuses, but only at MSU did Trump hit 25% (Other than Penn State).

3.) Third Party support appears to be extremely low among University Students here, compared to most PAC-12 and Big-12 University campuses...

4.) At the "Elite" public Universities of Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan it appears that the Undergrad Millennial Student body overwhelmingly rejected the message of Trump, despite the massive swings towards Trump in the "Rust Belt" of the Upper Midwest....

5.) Again, I ask the question did the College kids in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania cost HRC the 2016 Presidential Election because of lack of turnout, defection to 3rd Party Candidates, and general complacency with a Dem Pres Candidate that was not particularly inspiring that nobody viewed as "The third Obama Term" (Despite the message HRC was trying to roll with).

[NOVA Green]

Big 10- West:

University of Nebraska- Lincoln

Lincoln, Nebraska:

Campus/ Dorm Vote:

Total Vote--- 1,344--- 773 HRC (57.5% Dem), 394 DJT (29.3% Rep), 177 Others (13.2%)

+ 28.2% Dem

Off-Campus Undergrad Precincts:

Total Votes--- 1,040--- 680 HRC (65.4% Dem), 202 DJT (19.4% Rep), 158 Others (15.2%)

+ 46.0% Dem

Combined Campus and Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote--- 2,384--- 1,453 HRC (60.9% Dem), 596 DJT (25.0% Rep), 335 Others (14.1%)

+ 35.9% Dem

*** Note that these results do NOT include the roughly 30% of Lancaster County ballots that voted absentee, which unfortunately are not broken down by precinct.

Considering that these ballots are overwhelmingly Democratic, it is entirely probable that the actual Democratic Campus vote numbers are margins are a bit higher than the precinct level results, but still unfortunately these are the best numbers we've got.

[NOVA Green]

Big 10- West:

University of Minnesota- Minneapolis

Minneapolis, Minnesota:

Campus/Dorm Vote:

Total Vote: 3,132--- 2,163 HRC (69.1% Dem), 567 DJT (18.1% Rep), 402 Others (12.8%)

+ 51.0% Dem

Off Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 5,915---  4,259 HRC (72.0% Dem), 1,043 DJT (17.6% Rep), 613 Others (10.4%)

+ 54.4% Dem

Combined Dorm / Off-Campus Vote:

Total Vote: 9,047--- 6,422 HRC (71.0% Dem), 1,610 DJT (17.8% Rep), 1,015 Others (11.2%)

+ 53.2% Dem

*** Also, there are two precincts not included, one of which lies partially on the campus of UMN, but  also, includes Augsburg University and the second of which includes some off-campus UMN undergrad student areas, but also overlaps with Augsburg University as well.

For sake of completeness, here are the combined results for these two precincts:

Total Vote: 1,672--- 1,343 HRC (80.3% Dem), 149 DJT (8.9% Rep), 180 Others (10.8%)

+ 71.4% Dem

So interestingly enough UMN voted to the Right of the City of Minneapolis, which I found a bit surprising.

The UMN campus in St Paul (Actually located in Falcon Heights) appears to have voted similarly to the Minneapolis campus (73-18 Dem), although the campus population is a bit more dispersed than in Minneapolis.

Also, while looking at Ramsey County, I found a precinct that is 91% 18-19 year olds, which is where Bethel University, an evangelical Christian Liberal Arts school is located at in Arden Hills, Minnesota.

Total Votes: 1,505---  644 HRC (42.8% Dem), 637 (42.3% Rep), 224 Others (14.9%)

+ 0.5% Dem

Results were perhaps a bit suprising, and would be interesting to see if HRC actually performed fairly well at other evangelical Christian schools in Northern States.

[NOVA Green]

Big 10- West:

University of Wisconsin- Madison:

Madison, Wisconsin:

Campus/Dorm Vote:

Total Vote: 2,898---  2,048 HRC (70.7% Dem), 576 DJT (19.9% Rep), 274 Others (9.5%)

+ 50.8% Dem

Undergrad Off-Campus Vote:

Total Vote: 20,930---  15,755 HRC (75.3% Dem), 3,413 DJT (16.3% Rep), 1,762 Others (8.4%)

+ 59.0% Dem

Combined Campus/Off-Campus Vote:

Total Vote: 23,828--- 17,803 HRC (74.7% Dem), 3,989 DJT (16.7% Rep), 2,036 Others (8.5%)

+ 58.0% Dem

Notes/Comments:

1.) University of Wisconsin was a bit easier than some as the campus precincts are generally pretty cleanly defined, with the exception of one precinct that includes both a mixture of on-campus student halls and off-campus undergrad housing (Which I coded as off-campus simply because I couldn't figure out which population was significantly larger).

2.) Off-Campus precincts appeared to be a bit more compact than in some other Cities we've looked at, and are heavily concentrated directly South and East of Campus where there are extremely high percentages of the population aged 18-22 years.

3.) Again, it looks like UW actually voted to the Right of Madison as a whole, and Trump actually did a bit better here than I might have imagined, considering the reputation of the school as a Liberal bastion. The off-campus vote actually did more as one might have expected, and was actually pretty close to the numbers of UT-Austin for example, although still significantly worse than most University Undergrad precincts in the PAC-12 schools.

[NOVA Green]

Big 10- West:

University of Illinois- Champaign-Urbana:


Cunningham Township, Champaign County, Illinois:

Dorm/Campus Vote:

Total Votes: 6,690---  5,119 HRC (76.5% Dem), 990 DJT (14.8% Rep), 581 Others (8.7%)

+ 61.7% Dem

Undergrad Off-Campus:

Total Votes: 5,429---  4,063 HRC (74.8% Dem), 848 DJT (15.6% Rep), 518 Others (9.5%)

+ 59.2% Dem

Combined Campus/Off-Campus Vote:

Total Votes: 12,119--- 9,182 HRC (75.8% Dem), 1,838 DJT (15.2% Rep), 1,099 Others (9.1%)

+ 60.6% Dem

So--- WOW!!! University of Illinois voted way more Democratic than University of Minnesota and University of Wisconsin, especially with the Undergrad Dorm Vote.

This is perhaps a bit surprising considering the reputations of UMN and UW, but thinking about it a bit more perhaps makes it a question of what was the composition of the student body in these respective States?

Even though obviously the Undergrad student body at the "elite flagship Universities" of Wisconsin and Minnesota voted "Heavy Dem in '16", perhaps the student composition at U of I, with a much larger Metro area composition with a more diverse student body from Chi-Town acted a bit differently than the "elite Sons and daughters" from Minnesota and Wisconsin, where after all the '16 results were much closer than most might have expected?

Still, at this point University of Illinois is looking to be the most Democratic campus in the Big 10- West, although I would not be surprised if the University of Iowa beats them for 1st in Conference.

[NOVA Green]

Big 10- West:


Northwestern University:

Evanston, Illinois

Dorm/Campus Vote:

Total Vote: 678--- 583 HRC (86.0% Dem), 40 DJT (5.9% Rep), 55 Others (8.1%)

+ 80.1% Dem

Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 1,516--- 1,348 HRC  (88.9% Dem), 101 DJT (6.7% Rep), 67 Others (4.4%)

+ 82.2% Dem

Combined Campus/Off-Campus Vote:

Total Vote: 2,194--- 1,931 HRC (88.0% Dem), 141 DJT (6.4% Rep), 122 Others (5.6%)

+ 81.6% Dem

Notes/Comments:

1.) There are two precincts located predominately on the main campus of Northwestern. A third precinct appears to include a significant amount of University housing, but I defaulted it to "off-campus" since I couldn't determine the breakdown between campus/off-campus vote.

2.) This was the worst performance thus far for Trump within the Big 10, even worse than at the University of Michigan. In fact he placed behind combined 3rd Party votes for the campus vote, and almost for the consolidated campus/off-campus vote. In fact it was Trump's worse performance among any College Campus, excepting UC-Berkeley and Stanford.

3.) Interestingly enough the City and campus voted virtually identically, which we haven't seen to be the case very often thus far.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

lol @ Evanston having literally less than 150 Trump voters. I expect that the combination of A) having many voters/students from out of state and B) Illinois being a Democratic lock motivated many people to vote in their home state (e.g., I was working in Chicagoland last fall, not as a student, and opted to mail in a ballot in my home state rather than waste my vote). For what it's worth Evanston is the only college town I've visited in the last 18 months with more Hillary bumper stickers than Bernie ones.

My (rather uninformed) guess for UIUC having stronger Hillary-support than UW/UMN: I'd guess that the sheer size of the Chicagoland area relative to the Twin Cities/Madison-Milwaukee areas means that a higher proportion of students at UIUC come from an educated, solidly/upper middle class background than the other schools. Additionally, my experience with Chicago-area Republicans is that they are much more in the Rockefeller-mold than in the Trump mold, meaning that a number of children of Republican households may have voted for Clinton anyway. That's a total guess, and there are other explanations (e.g., Minnesota has a lot more private liberal arts schools that could bleed away well-off voters). It could also be something random, like a really bad Trump campaign organizer in Champaigne or a really good one in Madison.

[NOVA Green]

Big 10 West:

University of Iowa:

Iowa City, Iowa:

Campus/Dorm Vote:

Total Votes: 3,492--- 2,219 HRC (63.5% Dem), 1,006 DJT (28.8% Rep), 267 Others (7.6%)

+ 34.7% Dem

Off-Campus Undergrad Votes:

Total Votes: 8,007--- 5,778 (72.2% Dem), 1,585 DJT (19.8% Rep), 644 Others (8.0%)

+ 52.4% Dem

Combined Campus/Off-Campus Vote:

Total Vote: 11,499--- 7,997 HRC (69.5% Dem), 2,591 DJT (22.5% Rep), 911 Others (7.9%)

+ 47.0% Dem

Notes/Comments:

1.) So only two precincts were almost completely University Campus precincts, and an additional two where there was a significant dorm component, but also "off-campus" component that I lumped into the off-campus numbers.

2.) It is still striking the significant difference between the dorm vote versus the off-campus vote, not to mention how relatively well Trump performed among the "Dorm Votes" and how lackluster HRC performed, in what generally is a pretty overwhelmingly Democratic voting bloc within Iowa elections.

3.) Not sure how many of y'all have every been to Iowa City, but this is a town where for the longest time one of the largest grocery stores in town was an organic Natural Food Cooperative, and very socially liberal, especially by Iowa standards.

Even the off-campus student precinct numbers show Trump doing better than in other place within the Big 10- West, narrowly edging out off-campus undergrad precincts in Lincoln, Nebraska.

4.) One must certainly wonder if the precinct results we have seen from Iowa State University and University of Iowa, as well as Penn State University, were indicators of a broader shift within the electorate in Iowa and Pennsylvania in the 2016 Presidential Election.

Now, we have not seen those types of numbers from campus precincts in Michigan and Wisconsin thus far, and we still have plenty more data points from Ohio to look at, but still potentially lackluster support among Millennials in Iowa is certainly something to look at when writing the story about the '16 Presidential election.

[NOVA Green]

lol @ Evanston having literally less than 150 Trump voters. I expect that the combination of A) having many voters/students from out of state and B) Illinois being a Democratic lock motivated many people to vote in their home state (e.g., I was working in Chicagoland last fall, not as a student, and opted to mail in a ballot in my home state rather than waste my vote). For what it's worth Evanston is the only college town I've visited in the last 18 months with more Hillary bumper stickers than Bernie ones.

My (rather uninformed) guess for UIUC having stronger Hillary-support than UW/UMN: I'd guess that the sheer size of the Chicagoland area relative to the Twin Cities/Madison-Milwaukee areas means that a higher proportion of students at UIUC come from an educated, solidly/upper middle class background than the other schools. Additionally, my experience with Chicago-area Republicans is that they are much more in the Rockefeller-mold than in the Trump mold, meaning that a number of children of Republican households may have voted for Clinton anyway. That's a total guess, and there are other explanations (e.g., Minnesota has a lot more private liberal arts schools that could bleed away well-off voters). It could also be something random, like a really bad Trump campaign organizer in Champaigne or a really good one in Madison.

Thanks peenie weenie!

I was wondering that about Northwestern, since it's one of the Universities on the list, that really I know very little about. So, a huge chunk of the Undergrad population are from out of State, compared to many State Universities, which would explain the relatively low amount of votes within the Campus/Dorm precincts I'm assuming?

When I went to College in Ohio in the early 1990s, I voted absentee in Oregon simply for a mixture of tactical reasons and convenience at that time, and I'm pretty sure that particularly with Private schools, you are going to see a higher proportion of out-of-state students than at Public Universities for obvious reasons.

Regarding UILC, your thoughts are fairly similar to mine, especially when looking at the Trump brand of Republicanism, which was most heavily rejected in larger sprawling Metro Areas throughout the United States, including among many traditionally Upper-Middle-Class Republican suburban voters in places as diverse as the suburbs of Nashville and Atlanta, to Columbus and Indianapolis, and even in what was left of the Republican rump in cities like Portland, Seattle, Bay Area California down to Southern California.

Still, the relative weakness of the Democratic candidate in 2016 in places like the University precincts of Madison and Minneapolis, and now recent numbers indicate the University of Iowa as well, tells a countervailing narrative, considering these were all cities that were strongholds of the New Left during the Civil Rights Movement and War in Vietnam, through the "Alternative Movement" of the 1970s, and even throughout the heyday of the Reagan Administration in the '80s.

I guess the key question here, is to what extent if any did Millennial undergrad college students coming from rural and small town backgrounds swing significantly towards Trump in 2016, compared to how they voted (Or their peers four years older did in 2012)?

One of the main reasons that I started this project wasn't just because I happen to like watching College Ball games, but since unfortunately other than national exit polls, we really don't have a very good method to obtain actual verifiable precinct level results for Millennial Voters, since Military Base precincts are even sketchier to look at when it comes to *where* military voters actually vote (Which is really the only place other than College/University precincts where you'll see a massive concentration of voters aged 18-25).

At some point, I'm hoping to pull the 2012 precinct numbers for these same communities to see what shifts if any there were in terms of turnout levels, voting patterns and margins, to at least give us some actual comparative data points to use when trying to discuss Millennial voters.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

lol @ Evanston having literally less than 150 Trump voters. I expect that the combination of A) having many voters/students from out of state and B) Illinois being a Democratic lock motivated many people to vote in their home state (e.g., I was working in Chicagoland last fall, not as a student, and opted to mail in a ballot in my home state rather than waste my vote). For what it's worth Evanston is the only college town I've visited in the last 18 months with more Hillary bumper stickers than Bernie ones.

My (rather uninformed) guess for UIUC having stronger Hillary-support than UW/UMN: I'd guess that the sheer size of the Chicagoland area relative to the Twin Cities/Madison-Milwaukee areas means that a higher proportion of students at UIUC come from an educated, solidly/upper middle class background than the other schools. Additionally, my experience with Chicago-area Republicans is that they are much more in the Rockefeller-mold than in the Trump mold, meaning that a number of children of Republican households may have voted for Clinton anyway. That's a total guess, and there are other explanations (e.g., Minnesota has a lot more private liberal arts schools that could bleed away well-off voters). It could also be something random, like a really bad Trump campaign organizer in Champaigne or a really good one in Madison.

Thanks peenie weenie!

I was wondering that about Northwestern, since it's one of the Universities on the list, that really I know very little about. So, a huge chunk of the Undergrad population are from out of State, compared to many State Universities, which would explain the relatively low amount of votes within the Campus/Dorm precincts I'm assuming?

When I went to College in Ohio in the early 1990s, I voted absentee in Oregon simply for a mixture of tactical reasons and convenience at that time, and I'm pretty sure that particularly with Private schools, you are going to see a higher proportion of out-of-state students than at Public Universities for obvious reasons.

Regarding UILC, your thoughts are fairly similar to mine, especially when looking at the Trump brand of Republicanism, which was most heavily rejected in larger sprawling Metro Areas throughout the United States, including among many traditionally Upper-Middle-Class Republican suburban voters in places as diverse as the suburbs of Nashville and Atlanta, to Columbus and Indianapolis, and even in what was left of the Republican rump in cities like Portland, Seattle, Bay Area California down to Southern California.

Still, the relative weakness of the Democratic candidate in 2016 in places like the University precincts of Madison and Minneapolis, and now recent numbers indicate the University of Iowa as well, tells a countervailing narrative, considering these were all cities that were strongholds of the New Left during the Civil Rights Movement and War in Vietnam, through the "Alternative Movement" of the 1970s, and even throughout the heyday of the Reagan Administration in the '80s.

I guess the key question here, is to what extent if any did Millennial undergrad college students coming from rural and small town backgrounds swing significantly towards Trump in 2016, compared to how they voted (Or their peers four years older did in 2012)?

One of the main reasons that I started this project wasn't just because I happen to like watching College Ball games, but since unfortunately other than national exit polls, we really don't have a very good method to obtain actual verifiable precinct level results for Millennial Voters, since Military Base precincts are even sketchier to look at when it comes to *where* military voters actually vote (Which is really the only place other than College/University precincts where you'll see a massive concentration of voters aged 18-25).

At some point, I'm hoping to pull the 2012 precinct numbers for these same communities to see what shifts if any there were in terms of turnout levels, voting patterns and margins, to at least give us some actual comparative data points to use when trying to discuss Millennial voters.

Northwestern's a small (relative to the rest of the Big 10) private school which maybe will explain some of its anomalous features. Its undergrad student body is less than 10K, and I imagine it attracts a lot more wealthy students (and out-of-staters) than your average Big 10 flagship state school. I haven't spent as much time in other Big 10 towns so I can't draw reliable comparisons, but Evanston is incredibly cosmopolitan and diverse (although somewhat segregated), probably has a large liberal/urban influence from neighboring Chicago, and has a very large educated population (and it's not just an educated population associated with the University -- lots of people who live there work white-collar jobs in the city).

I should have been more explicit about Illinois Republicans -- in my experience, these aren't just Clinton-voting Republicans, but were likely Obama voters in 2012 and/or 2008, which I doubt suburban voters outside Minneapolis or Milwaukee (or Nashville, Houston, etc.).

It is an interesting project and I appreciate you doing it! Re: your last point about trends in students from small-towns, unfortunately I don't have great anecdotes to contribute here (I wasn't on a college campus for the election and most people I worked with were not student age or were from upper-middle class backgrounds). I'm looking forward to reading what you found!

[NOVA Green]

Big 10- West:

Purdue University:

West Lafayette, Indiana:

Campus/ Dorm Vote:

Total Vote: 1,619--- 1,017 HRC (62.8% Dem), 403 DJT (24.9% Rep), 199 Others (12.3%)

+ 37.9% Dem

Off-Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 1,809--- 1,174 HRC (64.9% Dem), 455 DJT (25.2% Rep), 180 Others (10.0%)

+ 39.7% Dem

Combined Dorm and Off-Campus Vote:

Total Vote: 3,428--- 2,191 HRC (63.9% Dem), 858 DJT (25.0% Rep), 379 Others (11.1%)

+ 38.9% Dem

Notes/Comments:

1.) Although the campus precincts are relatively clear, the muddied nature of the Tippecanoe County precinct map available online made it slightly tougher than in some other cases to cleanly overlap with US Census Tract info.

Still, I'm fairly confident that I included those precincts with a large majority of Undergrad students and excluded those with a much smaller percentage of that population.

2.) I suspect that once again when you have a large University population located in a relatively low cost of housing City in the Midwest, the Undergrad student population is a bit more dispersed than might be the case in some other Campus situations.

3.) Additionally, as a Private University, you are going to have a higher percentage of the student population that votes absentee in other States, which is a trend we have seen elsewhere as we roll through precinct level data.

4.) Purdue emerges as the campus in the Big 10-West that gave their highest percentage to Trump overall, although the Dorm Vote at University of Nebraska-Lincoln and University of Iowa- Iowa City actually provided a higher overall share of the Dorm vote to Trump than Purdue.

Still, it is interesting that despite the overall vote percentages in heavily 2016 'Pub Pres States like Indiana and Nebraska, that actually the College Student population doesn't exhibit nearly as large a spread compared to heavily Democratic States, like one might imagine.

Next stop Big 10- West Charts and Graphs.

[NOVA Green]

Big Ten West--- University Precinct Results Completed!!!!

Here are how the Cities of the Big 10- West voted in 2016:



Here are how the Dorm/Campus voters of the Big 10- West voted in 2016:



Here are how the Off-Campus Undergrad precincts of the Big 10- West voted in 2016:



Here are the consolidated Dorm/Campus precincts and Off-Campus precincts of the Big 10-West and how they voted in 2016:



I'll let others comment in more detail, as I already made various comments running through the individual University campus communities, but hell at least here is a summary sheet for Christmas Day, for anyone out there that at least vicariously observes the Holiday, as well as something interesting to look at for those who don't celebrate the Holiday, but still want to check out something interesting on Atlas, even on a slow-posting day for the most part.

[NOVA Green]

Mountain State- East:

Boise State University:

Boise, Idaho:

Dorm Vote/ Campus Vote:


Total Vote: 921--- 489 HRC (53.1% Dem), 274 DJT (29.8% Rep), 158 Others (17.2%)

+ 23.3% Dem

Undergrad/Off-Campus Vote:

Total Votes: 2,304--- 1,252 HRC (54.3% Dem), 686 DJT (29.8% Rep), 366 Others (15.9%)

+ 24.5% Dem

Combined Dorm and Off-Campus Vote:

Total Votes: 3,225--- 1,741 HRC (54.0% Dem), 960 DJT (29.8% Rep), 524 Others (16.2%)

+ 24.2% Dem

Notes/Comments:

1.) Pretty much only one precinct in Boise that is overwhelmingly campus, not to mention the lack of concentration of student undergrad precincts compared to many other University towns.

2.) The 3rd Party vote is heavily Libertarian at Boise State compared to the McMullin Vote, although he still did achieve 3.4% of the Undergrad vote at Boise State.

3.) It's pretty clear that if Boise Idaho is a Liberal Democratic stronghold, Boise State University doesn't appear to be the main reason for that, considering the Campus barely voted more Democratic than the City writ large.

I would suspect that the reason for the solid base of Democratic support in Boise, has much more to do with a combination of the "Alternative Movement" from the '70s and '80s, combined with a much more recent influx of tech workers over the past decade or so, and then throw in a healthy pinch of public sector workers doing decent work at Union Wages in the Capitol of the Great State of Idaho...

[NOVA Green]

Mountain State- East:

Utah State University:


Logan, Utah:

Campus/Dorm Vote:

Total Votes: 638--- 142 HRC (22.3% Dem), 161 DJT (25.2% Rep), 256 MCmullin (40.1% Ind), 79 Others (12.4%)

+ 14.9% McMullin...  + 2.9% Rep (Two Party Vote Only)

Undergrad/ Off-Campus:

Total Votes: 2,516--- 651 HRC (25.9% Dem), 842 DJT (33.5%), 820 McMullin (32.6% Ind), 203 Others (8.1%)

+ 0.9% Rep....    + 7.6% Rep (Two Party Vote Only)

Combined Campus/ Off-Campus Vote:

Total Votes: 3,154--- 793 HRC (25.1% Dem), 1,003 DJT (31.8% Rep), 1,076 McMullin (34.1% Ind), 282 Others (8.9%)

Notes/Comments:

1.) There are two precincts located squarely on the campus of Utah State University, as well as several that are located with some campus housing combined with off-campus housing, which I lumped into the "off-campus" vote.

2.) The one precinct that I had a bit of problems with was North Logan precinct 1, in that it includes a decent chunk of the Utah State University campus, but also includes some areas of North Logan that aren't predominately undergrad college students.... This might have muddied the off-campus numbers a little bit since it went 38% Trump and only 28% McMullin, but still was hard not to include considering it does take in a significant part of the campus and does have some undergrad concentrations within the Census tracts composing the precinct.

3.) So Logan, Utah like many other smaller campus communities, does have a student population that is pretty dispersed within the City, as well as in some parts of North Logan as well, so again it gets a bit trickier to narrow down the undergrad the student vote as easily as some other Cities.

It is noteworthy that HRC performed significantly worse than the town of Logan as whole, where she carried 8/27 total precincts in the City, not including the 1/6 she carried in campus precincts.

It is also interesting that McMullin performed significantly better among the heavily student precincts here compared to his support within the City at large.

Although obviously we have had discussions on various other threads about the types of voters that McMullin appealed strongest to within Utah, younger, more educated, from larger Cities within Utah, etc...  here is some actual data that shows how that played out.

4.) Comparing Logan and the University vote to Cache County as a whole (18% HRC-45% DJT -29% McMullin) versus Logan (28% HRC- 34% DJT- 38% Others) to Utah State (25% HRC- 32% DJT, 34% McMullin, 9% Others) pretty clearly illustrates Trump's extreme unpopularity within a pretty solidly Republican University community in Northern Utah.

Obviously Utah is a giant question mark come the 2020 General Election, and although few expect a Democrat to win a majority of the vote in the State, it really wouldn't take that much of collapse among Trump '16 LDS voters towards a 3rd Party Candidate, and even a small break towards a Democrat other an HRC (who wasn't very popular among LDS voters), to make for an interesting three candidate contest).

Utah will likely continue to remain one of the more interesting states politically in the US, under the Trump brand of national Republican politics...

[NOVA Green]

Mountain West- East:

University of Wyoming:

Laramie, Wyoming:

Dorm/Campus Vote:

Total Vote: 4,919--- 2,300 HRC (46.8% Dem), 2,012 DJT (40.9% Rep), 607 Others (12.3%)

+ 5.7% Dem

Off Campus Undergrad Vote:

Total Vote: 410-- 243 HRC (59.3% Dem), 105 DJT (25.6% Rep), 62 Others (15.1%)

+ 33.7% Dem

Combined Campus/ Off-Campus Vote:

Total Vote: 5,329--- 2,543 (47.7% Dem), 2,117 (39.7% Rep), 669 Others (12.6%)

+ 8.0% Dem

Notes/Comments:

1.) University of Wyoming results are some of the most problematic of just about any campus precinct data that I have examined thus far. You basically have two precincts that are partially located on the University campus, that also include a significant amount of off-campus areas, that are not overwhelmingly undergrad student Census tracts.

This makes the data a bit more suspect simply because if it is more contaminated with the "Townie" and Grad student voters.

2.) Laramie is one of those smaller campus cities where the student body is more dispersed throughout the City, making it a bit harder to isolate the student vote as effectively as I would like, but as the major game in town college students still consist of quite a large chunk of the City vote.

3.) Unfortunately there aren't a ton of precincts in Laramie, further complicating the effort to try to overlap Census tracts to identify significant concentrations of Undergrad student voters.

4.) Despite those inherent limitations, it still seems that the Campus voted slightly more Democratic than Laramie at large, especially considering precinct 14-1, which is partially located on the University Campus and narrowly voted for Trump, also includes a Census tract located off-campus with both a significant number of voters, which are older and have some of the highest household income within the City, basically right next to the Golf Course on the East side of Town. These are likely faculty and decent paid administrators at the University.

If we contrast that with the other University precinct that contains a significant number of the Campus Dorms over on the West side of campus (Precinct 13-3), you don't really see a significant concentration of older, wealthier voters within that precinct, which went heavily Clinton. Sure, there might be a slightly higher of Grad students in their '30s on the South Side of the precinct, but considering the population density of the student housing, I feel a bit more comfortable with that data than 14-1.

5.) Still, we need to work with what we have, so throw an asterix on both the campus and off-campus data, and overall the combined numbers are likely the most realistic.

6.) One interesting side-note is the 3rd Party vote at the University of Wyoming. Although it was not unusual at all to see combined 3rd Party votes in the 10-15 % range in many Universities (Even outside of the obvious schools in Utah) was the distribution of 3rd Party votes.

MCmullin was not on the ballot here, but Gary Johnson cleaned up among 3rd Party votes big time, and although I haven't completely broken down his numbers by campus precincts, it looks like this might have been his best University thus far, other than perhaps Texas Tech.