How Did Division I-A College Football Cities Vote in 2016?

[NOVA Green]

Sun Belt Conference:

Arkansas State University....

Jonesboro, Arkansas:

8,396 HRC (33.9%), Trump 14,823 (59.8% R)                                    + 25.7% R

Very interesting.... not sure if anyone has insights onto Jonesboro and Arkansas State University, but it does seem a bit odd that it voted much more heavily Republican, than even "Whiter" College Cities in the Cotton Belt and Appalachia....

A possibility (that may be impossible to confirm) would be that Arkansas St. had a higher percentage of the vote coming from undergraduate students compared to professors and academics (including grad students).  It is possible that groups on campus made more of an effort to get students to vote at their campus address (rather than their parents' house) than at some other universities.  It wouldn't surprise me if the undergrads at somewhere like Arkansas St. voted 60-75% Trump (depending on the racial demographics of the student body, which I'm not sure of), which offset the professors and academics in town.  Unfortunately, other than seeing how many votes were cast in the campus precinct (which can be very low and reflective of student bodies as a whole if a group of one party encourages it and the other doesn't, for example) or popular off-campus residence areas for students, it's impossible to confirm or deny this theory.

Your thinking is exactly the opposite of the truth.  The city is the conservative base, not the University.

Well, this discussion raises the "Pink Elephant in the Room" when it comes to looking at Colleges and Universities, "townies/gownies" as well as the obvious issue of how to break down major college Universities within some of the largest cities in America, to try to contain and isolate the College/University vote to a data point that is actually discernible.

Obviously we can't isolate the student vote in larger cities such as LA, Houston, Atlanta, San Antonio, Charlotte, Columbus, New Orleans, etc... based solely upon the overall City vote, in what are after all large Metro areas where the College Student vote, is frequently but a relatively minor fraction of the overall vote share....

It is much easier to look at the data points from smaller cities with a both a much higher population of college students within certain precincts to help examine the subject further...

I was planning to go into this subject in greater detail after running the City/Town numbers to the best of my ability ( Any additional help is much appreciated on the project   ) to attempt to try to isolate heavily University based precincts from the rest of the City/Town....

Obviously, Jonesboro is but one data point, that stood out dramatically as an outlier, so since the subject has been broached, delved into it in slightly more detail:

1.) My original numbers included several split-precincts (36 & 45) that voted overwhelmingly Trump that I included in the Jonesboro total numbers to be conservative with the data, since I don't believe in skewing numbers for any type of partisan political angle.

2.) Even if we exclude these split precincts the margins in Jonesboro barely move on the needle.

3.) What does the precinct map of Jonesboro look like?



4.) Where does it appear that the student population is most heavily concentrated?



5.) It does appear that there is a direct correlation between the most heavily University precincts in the "College Ghettos" of Jonesboro and support for HRC...



6.) So I overlapped the map the correlated most directly with the highest concentration of individuals in their '20s (Precincts 26,27,32,33,34,35) and obtained the following result:

1,476 HRC (50.4% D)- 1,250 Trump (42.7% R)       + 7.7 D



7.) It does appear that Jerry Arkansas knows his S**t when it comes to his home state....

Now maybe the precincts included in my list exclude certain other precincts that are heavily college student precincts, and since I have never been to Jonesboro (Although I've driven through the state a few times over the decades, including a wild night pitching tent in the Ozarks during a lighting storm and Tornado warning in a campground on the edge of a lake in a State Forest).

It does appear that the "townies" tend to vote overwhelmingly Republican at a Presidential level, but certainly much less so than rural small-town precincts in places like Bono that were almost 4:1 Trump, or Lake City 3:1 Trump....

8.) Anyone of y'alls from around there want to jump in, since sometimes it's really easy to look at data from one level, and still not get what's going on at the ground level....

[NOVA Green]

American Athletic Conference East:

East Carolina University:

Greenville, North Carolina:

6,588 HRC (54.7% D), 4,742 Trump (39.4% R)        +15.3% D

[NOVA Green]

Sun Belt Conference:

Appalachian State University:

Boone, North Carolina:

4,807 HRC (64.4% D), 1,934 Trump (25.9% R)     + 38.5% D

So here's where it gets a bit complicated... these results include the three precincts of the Wautaga County that fall within City limits.

Additionally it includes the category of "OS-ASU". Although I'm not sure exactly what that means, it obviously refers to Appalachian State University....

I did not include any of the provisional, absentee, nor transfer ballots summarized in the precinct reports since these 1,600 votes were not able to be broken down into municipal level breakdowns.

[NOVA Green]

Big 10 East:

University of Maryland:

College Park---

4,118 HRC (74.8%), 908 Trump (16.5%)      + 58.3% D

Note: This includes Prince George's County precincts (1-08, 21-01, 21-02, 21-04, 21-09, 21-10,      21-17).

If anyone has better precinct data for the City, please jump in or provide info, since this is the best info that I could find that appears to match precinct locations for College Park.

The precinct located on campus went 1,202 (81.9%) HRC, 138 (9.4%) Trump out of 1,467 votes.

[NOVA Green]

Updated Chart....

In order to view anything, you'll need to right click and view in new tab and zoom in...

Atlas limitations on graphic and file sizes and all that...

[Gass3268]

Troy---  Troy University- Troy, Alab 2,824 HRC (42.0% D), 2,611 (53.7% R)         + 13.7% R

How does Hillary have a lower % with more votes?

[nclib]

Army is in West Point CDP which is in the Town of Highlands in Orange County, NY. CDPs do not appear to have election results available, but the Town of Highlands is 49.9% D 45.0% R +4.8% D.

This is the same situation as UConn and U. of Rhode Island in the flagship schools list. Is it worth (or possible) calculating the CDP results, or should we just use the town results? Either way, it would be good to be consistent.

[nclib]

Maryland-College Park is probably the only university on this list that is less Democratic than its county (though simply because university town whites are not nearly as Democratic as blacks).

Nebraska-Lincoln appears close, though absentees are not broken down by precinct but it is likely that Lincoln would be more Democratic as Hillary didn't win a single precinct outside of Lincoln city limits.

Anything else?

PS: Jerry, what is that a map of in your signature?

[NOVA Green]

AAC- West

US Naval Academy:

Annapolis, Maryland:

4,473 HRC (37.0% D), 6,727 Trump (55.7% R)                   + 18.7% R

****   However these results are not correct....

Total precinct votes in Anne Arundel County summarized equal 171,373 total votes....

Actual County votes equate to  something over 270k total votes...

We are missing 37% of the County Vote at a precinct level!!!

Something tells me that Maryland is doing the same dodgy lazy election reporting gig, just like South Carolina, and only includes actual same day voting in their official precinct numbers.

Essentially what this means for smaller municipal areas within larger counties, it essentially makes the election results "junk results", since we have no idea of where the missing early votes and absentee votes came from....

So if we look at the Election Day Votes in Anne Arundel we see the following results:

72,267 HRC (42.2%), 85,337 Trump (49.8%).      +7.6% R

If we look at the total County vote and subtract the election day numbers we see the following:

56,152 HRC (56.9%), 37,066 Trump (37.6%)       +19.3% D

If we were to extrapolate the 7.1% of the ED County vote share for Annapolis, we would have an additional 7,008 votes.

If we were to multiply that by the absentee/early vote share, we would have the following numbers:

3,987 HRC, 2,635 Trump....

If we were to add the actual ED vote counts with the best possible guess of the EV/Absentee vote count, we would see something like the following:

HRC:     4,473 (ED) + 3,987 (EV/Absentee)--- 8,460 Total
Trump:  6,727 (ED) + 2,635 (EV/Absentee)-    9,362 Total
Total:   12,088 (ED) + 7,088 (EV/Absentee)-    19,176 Total

In this hypothetical scenario the results would look something more like the following....

HRC - 44.1%, Trump 48.8%      + 4.7% R


Honestly this is something closer to what I would expect, considering that Annapolis is generally a Republican leaning town in Maryland, but Trump lost some support of "Ancestral 'Pub" voters connected to Naval Academy, as well as some the well heeled small business owners and Navy retirees in the City used to a more gentile style of Republican Party political leaders....

Anyone have better data on Annapolis that incorporates EV and absentee ballots by municipality...

On a side topic, if Maryland is segregating same day precinct votes and lumping them only into a giant basket at a statewide level, it also helps explain why the total votes in College Station were much less than I was expecting....

Shame on you Maryland for not providing more transparent election reporting...

[NOVA Green]

Troy---  Troy University- Troy, Alab 2,824 HRC (42.0% D), 2,611 (53.7% R)         + 13.7% R

How does Hillary have a lower % with more votes?

This was a typo....

Troy was actually 2,824 HRC and 3,611 Trump....

Apologies for my sloppy numbers, and went back to double check my original precinct spreadsheet for Pike County, Alabama just in case, but those jive with the precinct numbers....

Now, here's a quote from my original post regarding Troy:

"*** Note these numbers are probably a bit high for Trump, considering there are multiple split precincts here, and Precinct # 13 (Troy Rec Center) where 1,677 people voted for Pres was 70% Trump, and much of the precinct lies outside of City limits. Still it's probably the best # we can get w/o some really convoluted carving out precincts by population inside and outside of City Limits and trying to model how the "rural" parts of the precincts would have voted based on neighboring areas..."

If we were to completely remove Precinct #13 we would see the results look more like:

2,387 HRC (47.3%), 2,445 Trump (48.4%)....

Just goes to show how extremely racially polarized election precincts and results are to the present day in some states in the "Deep South"....

The main reason why I included precinct #13, was that I couldn't ascertain what proportion of the precinct was located within Troy City limits, since it looks like there are a few large subdivisions that fall within City boundaries, and difficult to tell the population outside of City limits....

So I erred on the side of caution with split precincts, rather than excluding the precinct in order to fit a pre-determined narrative, which isn't my agenda nor objective, instead included it based on a judgement call that likely > 50% of the voters in the precinct resided within City limits...

Hope that clarifies, and according these numbers and including precinct # 13 the 3,611 Trump numbers are the best possible numbers, unless we can determine how to split the votes in precinct #13 between those within and outside of City Limits.

There are a few other precincts in Troy where I faced a similar issue, and basically included them as well if it appeared that the majority of the voters were located within the City....

Sigh... I really dislike split-precincts when it becomes an OTT norm and screws with the work of Political Scientists trying to objectively analyze and dissect election results in a detailed manner....

[NOVA Green]

Army is in West Point CDP which is in the Town of Highlands in Orange County, NY. CDPs do not appear to have election results available, but the Town of Highlands is 49.9% D 45.0% R +4.8% D.

This is the same situation as UConn and U. of Rhode Island in the flagship schools list. Is it worth (or possible) calculating the CDP results, or should we just use the town results? Either way, it would be good to be consistent.

Very good question----

Although, I am likely not the best versed in the intricacies to towns/townships/CDPs, compared to many other more knowledgeable posters on Atlas, my general thought is when we look at places in New England, New York, and the Central Atlantic States, where this is a more prevalent form of local electoral reporting, that we should default to the Town/Township results, unless one can obtain more clear-cut results using precinct numbers that correspond to CDPs....

In Oregon, we don't have the ability to run numbers by town/township for Uninc areas, so for example I ran the precinct numbers for Aloha (CDP ~ 50k) located in Washington County, which is one of most heavily Asian-American "places" in Oregon, as well a relatively upper Middle-Class,  to look at the '12 > '16 numbers.

My thought would be to run the town/township numbers in the Northeast/ Central Atlantic for Uninc areas if possible, rather than trying to decipher individual precinct numbers for CDPs, which after all don't easily align with actual precinct lines....

Anyone else have thoughts on this?

[NOVA Green]

Maryland-College Park is probably the only university on this list that is less Democratic than its county (though simply because university town whites are not nearly as Democratic as blacks).

Nebraska-Lincoln appears close, though absentees are not broken down by precinct but it is likely that Lincoln would be more Democratic as Hillary didn't win a single precinct outside of Lincoln city limits.

Anything else?

PS: Jerry, what is that a map of in your signature?

I'm actually starting to wonder if that is actually the case (Bolded).....

Not sure if you've seen my post on Annapolis and Anne Arundel County, but it does appear the potentially Maryland only includes Election Day Votes in their official SoV reports....

In that case, there is a huge number of votes within every county in Maryland that can't be broken down by the precinct level....

Especially if one looks at student voters, there is much more likely be a higher % of EV and Absentee voting, than among other populations....

Still, I suspect that you might well be correct when it comes to the County vs the Uni Town, but my faith in the ability of the Maryland Department of Elections to accurately break down votes by precinct regarding EV/ED/Absentee is now sufficiently shattered, that I question the credibility of any type of detailed precinct level analysis from the great Commonwealth of Maryland....

EDIT: Thinking that maybe I need to make a "New Rule" which is for those areas that don't break down EVs/Absentee by Precinct is to simply take the total County vote (Official) and subtract the TV for ED, in order to calculate the % of the EV/Absentee Vote...

Then we go back and look at the % of ED vote by municipality and assign an equal % to the EV/Absentee Vote...

We use the EV/Absentee Vote % to calculate the estimate numbers by municipality....

It's not a perfect system, and quite frankly if anything likely understates the Democratic vote in many places....

Lincoln, Nebraska would obviously be ground zero.... As I mentioned elsewhere Clemson numbers would likely also be a bit more Dem....

I had basically given up on rolling the precinct numbers from Columbia, South Carolina for the same reason, but will def revisit using the same formula, and clearly defined....

Precinct level work is tricky enough, and all we ask is for election officials in both red and blue state America alike, to at least include EVs/Absentees into final official County level precinct summaries, rather than just wrapping up into total County level numbers....

Doesn't cost taxpayers a dime more, and makes elections much more transparent....

[NOVA Green]

University of Missouri (Columbia)
Clinton - 31,694 - 56.17%
Trump - 20,072 - 35.57%

Thanks Reagente!!!!

Didn't totally realize why you were posting these numbers, until I started looking at the nclib "flagship universities" subject in greater detail....

My apologies for not giving credit before, since it slipped under the radar in what has been a very busy week for me...

[NOVA Green]

So shots out to nclib, in a metaphorical hip-hop style, not like I just got off a homemade shooting range with one of son in laws that like to occasionally like to do some target practice on some family land outside of City limits....

If we look at the "Flagship State Colleges and Universities" (Although there are some legitimate arguments as to to merits of inclusion when it comes to a few states in our Great Union, we need to roll with the classic definitions to sake of common discussion, rather than wrangle in the weeds about the merits of Academic Inclusion into this most coveted list).

We see the following results:



Now if we were to roll it into an Atlas map by % of support for the winning candidate we see something like the following:

Naturally, one must assume that UT-Austin would vote more Democratic than the County at large, same gig with NM, AZ.

Certainly Chapel Hill NC would fit into that equation as well....

The initial numbers I ran on Grand Forks, ND appear that Trump won the City by significant numbers...

SD haven't played around with yet, let alone the great unknown of Pacific Northwest City of Fairbanks Alaska...

Very curious about exact numbers from Lexington Kentucky, but once again this will be solid Clinton Country, more curious about the margins myself....

Missoula is pretty much a given heavy Dem City, and generally one of the most Democratic Cities in Montana, but again more interested in the margins and overall percentages than the result.

Pretty amazing map if you look at it, especially considering that those graduating from the public universities with the highest status and prestige can pretty much roll out of college and get a job anywhere, and essentially represent the next generation of leaders in the worlds of business/commerce, math/science, political leadership, arts/culture, are voting so overwhelmingly against the party of Trump....

I still remember the days as a Gen Xer where the College Students were so much more conservative than the "townies" during the days of the "Reagan Youth", including working class precincts like mine....

[nclib]

Maryland-College Park is probably the only university on this list that is less Democratic than its county (though simply because university town whites are not nearly as Democratic as blacks).

Nebraska-Lincoln appears close, though absentees are not broken down by precinct but it is likely that Lincoln would be more Democratic as Hillary didn't win a single precinct outside of Lincoln city limits.

Anything else?

PS: Jerry, what is that a map of in your signature?

I'm actually starting to wonder if that is actually the case (Bolded).....

Are you doubting College Park votes to the right of Prince George's, or are you questioning that College Park was probably the only one?

As for the rest of your post, yes, it is unfortunate where Absentee and Early vote aren't broken down by precinct, esp. where that takes up a good chunk of the county's vote.

I like your idea of assuming the abs and early vote, vote in proportion as the ED vote, i.e. if the city's ED vote is 5% more Dem than the county's ED vote, then we project that the city's abs/early is 5% more Democratic than the county's.

That said, this isn't perfect, esp. as we don't know if some precincts are more likely to have voters vote Abs/Early. It may still be the best we have.

As for Annapolis, IIRC in 2008 it went barely Democratic even as Anne Arundel went Republican.

[NOVA Green]

Atlantic Coastal Conference- Coastal

University of North Carolina:

*** Flagship University ****

Chapel Hill, North Carolina:

26,459 HRC (81.5% D), 5,078 Trump (15.6% R)           + 65.9% D

So, here's what I love about Orange County, North Carolina.... the County Bureau of elections actually wraps their early voting into the overall precinct numbers, unlike many other counties in North Carolina.

Note, these results include one split precinct "Dogwood Acres" , where a significant majority of the population appears to reside within municipal boundaries, and excludes Kings Mill, which has a section of the population within Chapel Hill, but appears to be predominately unincorporated areas outside of City Limits....   Grrr split-precincts.   

Additionally I added in the election day voting numbers from precinct #27 located in neighboring Durham County, which is the only part of the City located outside of Orange County.

Unfortunately, we have a slight issue with Durham County, as they do not break down their Early Voting (One-Stop) by precinct, which isn't really a major issue with Chapel Hill, unlike the City of Durham, which we will get to shortly.

[NOVA Green]

Maryland-College Park is probably the only university on this list that is less Democratic than its county (though simply because university town whites are not nearly as Democratic as blacks).

Nebraska-Lincoln appears close, though absentees are not broken down by precinct but it is likely that Lincoln would be more Democratic as Hillary didn't win a single precinct outside of Lincoln city limits.

Anything else?

PS: Jerry, what is that a map of in your signature?

I'm actually starting to wonder if that is actually the case (Bolded).....

Are you doubting College Park votes to the right of Prince George's, or are you questioning that College Park was probably the only one?

As for the rest of your post, yes, it is unfortunate where Absentee and Early vote aren't broken down by precinct, esp. where that takes up a good chunk of the county's vote.

I like your idea of assuming the abs and early vote, vote in proportion as the ED vote, i.e. if the city's ED vote is 5% more Dem than the county's ED vote, then we project that the city's abs/early is 5% more Democratic than the county's.

That said, this isn't perfect, esp. as we don't know if some precincts are more likely to have voters vote Abs/Early. It may still be the best we have.

As for Annapolis, IIRC in 2008 it went barely Democratic even as Anne Arundel went Republican.

1.) RE: College Park and University City vs County (Quoted in Italics)

Well intuitively your argument makes sense that College Station is likely more Republican than the County as a whole, considering that the County overall total vote went (88.1 D- 8.4 R), vs ED numbers from College Park (74.8% D- 16.5% R). ....

After all College Park is 57% White, 17% African-American, 13% Asian-American, and 10% Latino-American, which is very different from the County as a whole 64.2% African-American, 14.8% Anglo-American, 14.5% Latino-American....

However, what gives me pause, and my apologies I should have stated it more clearly, since I generally try to be more precise in my written words than what essentially likely almost read as a throw-away comment without explanation nor rationale, is simply the extremely low number of ED voters from College Park, where only some 5,5k people voted in a City of 30.8k....

If we look at precinct 21-17 which is located physically on the campus of the University of Maryland, we see the same day voting numbers of 1,202 HRC (81.9% D), 138 Trump (9.4% R), out of 1,467 Total Votes.

Now, the wild card here is how many individuals located within College Park precincts voted early/absentee, which is after all an area in this part of the Country where Democrats typically excel at.

Now the University of Maryland, as a major flagship University has a significant number of International students and faculty, as well as likely many students who vote absentee in their home counties and states, so this doesn't mean that a relatively low ED vote is indicative of something like another 5-10k EV/Absentee Votes, which within this context would most likely be even more Democratic than same-day voting.

Still, even using the ED voting from precinct 21-17, and if we were to do a giant leap on the "jump to conclusions mat" (Office Space reference), it actually appears that the gap between the University community and the County overall was likely significantly lower than initially might appear to be the case....

So, to answer your question after raising my doubts about how close the margins might differ once we consider the EV student vote, I believe that College Park did most likely vote to the Right of the County overall.

However we run into the same problem as Annapolis for example when trying to do vote modeling as % of County population. After all only 3.5% of the population of Prince Georges County lives in College Park and only 7.1% of Anne Arundel lives within the City of Annapolis!

Regarding College Park being perhaps the only College City/Town on the list where the University section voted to the Right of the County, you might well be right.

I do wonder about UCLA and USC versus Los Angeles, and have been trying to wrap my brain around how best to try to objectively isolate the University Vote, which quite possibly, considering similar demographics as Prince Georges County Maryland (Anglo majority precincts in an overwhelmingly minority-majority City/County)....

This was actually something that I was conceiving at the beginning of the project, since after all when one looks at larger cities in the United States, how to isolate these large Universities from cities such as San Jose, San Diego, Dallas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Memphis, Columbia, etc....

I suspect that we might find instances in some larger cities, where the University precincts voted to the right of the City, and possibly even the County, but haven't yet figured out how to isolate that yet, since the initial step was simply to consolidate raw precinct numbers by municipality, and then try to look at heavily University precincts to see what the "student vote" looked like in these places.

2.) Do you mind PM'ing me or posting a link to the '08 results from Annapolis?

I know we pretty much have somewhat approximating a complete '08 precinct data set for most of the US floating around from various sources, but wonder how we can be confident that the '08 Annapolis numbers don't share some of the same issues as the '16 numbers?

[nclib]

This thread has discussion on Annapolis in 2008.

[NOVA Green]

Atlantic Coastal Conference- Coastal:

Duke University:

Durham, North Carolina:

Election Day Votes:

18,544 HRC (73.9% D), 4,898 Trump (19.5% R), 25,107 Total Votes      + 54.4% D

* I'm not going to even go into the split-precincts at this point included in the above numbers as to some that included and a few that I excluded as part of the numbers above, since that is the least of our worries.

Obviously these numbers don't make a hell of a lotta sense, considering we are talking about a City of 235k residents, roughly 85% of Durham County where there a bit over 156k votes case in '16....

Meanwhile, an astonishing 76% percent of the voters voted early (119,153 votes in Durham County) at "One Stop (OS) Voting Centers located in 13 early vote centers scattered around the county....

This does not include an additional 6,554 votes classified as absentee or provisional...

Early Votes for the County work out as the following:

95,463 HRC (80.1% D), 19,523 Trump (16.4% R)           + 63.7% D

Uninc precint ED voting was something like the following:

2,048 HRC (42.6% D), 2,413 (50.2% R)  Trump, 4,806 Total        + 7.6% R

So, on first glance Durham appears to vote to the Right of the County as a whole, but in actuality, it appears that it voted to the Left of the County, albeit narrowly since Durham accounts for 85% of the Population....

Honestly not sure how to assign total votes and percentages to Durham, considering all of the obstacles.

The Durham County Elections division are FFs for allowing easy access to early voting locations, despite the Republican's attempt to restrict the access to the vote in NC in '16, but HPs for not allowing more transparent election results by precinct, as did some other counties in NC.

Meanwhile, food for thought since after all Duke University is the main reason Durham is being discussed on this thread....

Duke University--- One Stop Voting (Early Voting)

7,266 HRC (87.1% D), 740 Trump (8.9% R)            + 78.2% D

So it certainly appears that the University voted significantly to the Left of the City/County....

[NOVA Green]

This thread has discussion on Annapolis in 2008.

Wow! Awesome gold mine posts from the heyday of Classic Atlas!

I was lurking on the site starting sometime before the '04 elections and didn't register I believe until sometime in early '08, because I went through a bit of personal and political slump during the W. years with Iraq and all that and life situations, but got into posting on Atlas precisely in early '08 because of many of the quality and effort posts from various individuals, especially when it came to the caliber of the content regarding electoral results and analysis....

So Lephead's numbers apparently indicate a significant shift in precinct boundaries between '08 and '16 (Which is certainly not unusual, and I have no reason to doubt the research).

I guess where I do have a question regarding Annapolis, is how EVs and Absentee ballots were calculated based upon his (?) research.

I've probably been to Annapolis over 25 times in my life, because of family proximity and ties, and it always seemed more like a well-heeled East Shore Maryland town, with extreme residential segregation, but still essentially relatively socially liberal, but conservative on economics and foreign policy (Moderate Republican circa mid '80s- mid '90s...

Would love to go back again once more in my adult life, and grab some of the fresh crabs from the Bay from the fishing market down by the piers...

It is interesting to note that 42% of the population has a Bachelors Degree or Higher, not to mention a relatively high MHI, which would seem to put it in a category where one might expect an Obama '12 > HRC '16 Swing...

What is also really interesting here, is that Obama performed really well in '08 in Cities/Towns with large Military populations, both active duty and retirees (Tons of Naval retirees in Annapolis)...

So it wouldn't surprise me if Obama narrowly won Annapolis in '08, lost it by mid single digits in '12, and it swung back a bit towards HRC in '16, but she narrowly lost it because of defections to 3rd Party Candidates....

Unfortunately, I'm not sure how we can isolate the Annapolis vote in '16 to include EV/Absentee ballots.

Arguably the Navy is the most Democratic military branch, other than the US Army, and certainly there has been a dramatic shift in recent years when looking at the Top Brass in the US Armed Services, which used to vote overwhelmingly Republican compared to Enlisted Men/Women, and the United States Navy is no exception to that trend in terms of greater convergence between the Officer Corps versus Enlisted Service Members....

The US Naval Academy is a major part of the social & cultural identity of the town.... my parents used to play against their teams in College sports back in the early '60s...

It is not the only gig in town, but Annapolis has come along way since the early '60s, when both my parents were cited for "disturbing the peace" simply because they chose to sit down in a segregated lunch counter somewhere in East Shore Maryland, along with some of their African-American friends, simply wanting to order a burger and some fries, with a soft drink on the side.

Anyways--- regardless of political voting patterns, here's a shot out to the future leadership of the US Navy, and all of the cadets that went to University at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis with a photo with the State Capitol of Maryland in the background.

[NOVA Green]

Updated list...

PAC 12- North: Completed

University of Washington- Seattle----          (84.2% D- 8.4% R)               +75.8% D
Washington State University- Pullman-       (62.4% D- 22.3% R)              +40.1% D
Stanford- Stanford-Palo Alto--                              (82.5 % D- 12.2% R)             +70.2% D
University of California- Berkeley---                 (90.4% D- 3.2% R- 4.6% LBT)     +87.2% D
University of Oregon- Eugene--57,583 HRC (65.5% D), 20,148 Trump (22.9% R)   + 42.6% D
Oregon State University-Corvallis---            (69.5.1% D- 17.8% R)                         +51.7% D



PAC 12 South:  4/6 Completed

University of Southern California- Los Angeles- LA-    (78.5% D- 16.4% R)                +62.1% D
University of Utah- Salt Lake City, Utah-     (66.1% D- 16.3% R- 10.8% McMullin)      +49.8% D      
Arizona State University- ASU- Tempe        
University of Colorado- Boulder---      56,156 HRC (82.3% D), 7,602 Trump (11.1%)  +71.2% D            University of Arizona- U of A- Tuscon      
University of California Los Angeles- UCLA- LA         (78.5% D- 16.4% R)                   +62.1% D

Big 12 Conference: 8/10 Completed

Oklahoma- Norman---            21,163 HRC (46.4% D),  20,758 Trump (45.5% R)      +0.9% D    
TCU- Fort Worth----           121,042 HRC (50.2% D), 105,756 Trump (44.1% R)        +6.1% D
West Virginia- Morgantown---    4,580 HRC (55.4% D), 2,767 Trump (33.5% R)        +21.9% D
Texas Tech- Lubbock---       24,800 HRC (31.1% D), 50,556 Trump (53.1% R)           +32.0% R
Iowa State- Ames----          18,956 HRC ( 57.3%), 10,352 Trump (31.3%)                +26.0% D
Kansas State- Manhatten---    8,068 HRC (47.8% D), 7,103 Trump (42.1% R)          + 5.7% D
Texas- Austin
Oklahoma State- Stillwater    5,679 HRC (41.4% D), 6,634 Trump (48.3% R)          + 6.9% R
Kansas- Lawrence---- 26,342 HRC (68.6% D), 8,832 Trump (23.0% R)                    +55.6% D
Baylor- Waco  

Big Ten East: Completed

University of Michigan- Ann Arbor, MI- (83.2 % D- 11.8 % R)                        +71.4% D
Penn State- State College-    (65.2 % D-27.8 % R)                                       +37.4% D
Ohio State- Columbus, Ohio (70.2% D- 25.2% R)                                         +45.0% D
Maryland- College Park, MD- (74.8% D- 16.5%)                                           + 58.3% D
Michigan State: East Lansing- (71.4% D- 22.4% R)                                      +  49.0% D
Indiana- Bloomington, IN--  9,699 HRC (70.1%),   3,221 Trump (23.3%)        +46.8% D
Rutgers- Piscataway, NJ--  (71.3% D- 24.6% R)                                            +46.7% D

                                          

Big Ten West:Completed

Nebraska- Lincoln, NE                                                (44.9 D %- 44.7 R %).   +0.2% D
Minnesota- Minneapolis-                                             (79.8 % D- 11.8 % R)   +68.0% D
Wisconsin- Madison-                                                   (78.4% D- 15.0% R)     +63.4% D
Illinois- Urbana-Champaign-                                 ----  (66.0% D- 24.7 R)        +41.3% D
Northwestern- Evanston, IL----                                     (87.3% D- 7.2% R)      +80.1% D
Iowa- Iowa City--- 26,476 HRC (72.6%), 7.332 Trump (20.1%)                         +52.5% D
Purdue- West Lafayette, IN-   6,214 HRC (60.3% D), 3,134 Trump (30.4% R)     +29.9% D



Mountain West- East 5/6 Completed

Boise State University- Boise---                             (52.1% D-  34.3% R)         + 17.8% D
Utah State- Logan---4,455 HRC ( 28.1% D), 5,392 Trump (34.0% R), McMullin (29.4% I) + 4.6% R
Wyoming- Laramie---                            (43.9% D- 39.8% R)                   + 4.1% D
Colorado State University- Fort Collins-  53,143 HRC (56.3 %), 29,256 (31.0% R)    +25.3% D
New Mexico- Albuquerque
Air Force---- Colorado Springs                               (36.7% D- 53.0% R)         + 16.3% R

Mountain State- West 3/5 Completed

San Diego State- San Diego---   (65.9% D- 28.0% R)       + 37.9% D
Fresno State- Fresno--              (57.2% D- 37.4% R)       + 19.8% D
UNLV- Las Vegas
Hawaii- Honolulu
San Jose State- San Jose           (73.8% D- 20.5% R)        +53.3% D

American Athletic Conference East 4/6 Completed:

South Florida- Tampa
East Carolina- Greenville, NC- (54.7% D)- 39.4% R           + 15.3% D
UCF- Orlando
Cincinnati- Cincinnati, OH- ( 74.6% D- 21.3% R)                 + 53.3% D
Temple- Philly, PA---  ( 82.3% D- 15.3 R%)                      + 67.0% D
Connecticut- East Hartford---   (69.2% D-  27.4% D)             + 41.8% D

American Athletic Conference West: 3/6 Completed

Navy--- Annapolis, Maryland--- (44.1% D- 48.8% R)         + 4.7% R  
Memphis- Memphis
SMU- Dallas, Texas
Houston- Houston
Tulsa- Tulsa----   ( 42.7% D- 50.7% R)                               + 8.0% R
Tulane- New Orleans, LA----   (80.8% D- 14.7% R)                     + 66.1% D

ACC- Atlantic: 5/7 Completed

Clemson- Clemson SC---  (46.0% D- 44.5% R)....     + 1.5% D
Wake Forest- Winston-Salem, NC---  (64.5% D), (31.1% R)             + 33.4% D
NC State- Raleigh, NC--- (66.3% D- 28.3% R)          + 38.0% D
Louisville- Louisville, KY
Syracuse- Syracuse, NY---- (74.9% D- 20.1% R)          + 54.8% D
Florida State- Tallahassee, FL
Boston College- Boston, MA---   (80.6% D- 13.9% R)    + 66.7% D

ACC-Coastal: 4/7 Completed

Duke- Durham, NC--- (80.1% D), (16.4% R)        +  63.7% D
Shooting in the dark slightly here, but an extremely realistic number considering the data available here...

Georgia Tech- Atlanta, GA
Virginia Tech- Blacksburg VA
Virginia- Charlottesville----     (79.7% D-  13.2% R)        +66.5% D
Miami- Miami Gardens FL
Pittsburgh- Pittsburgh--- (74.8% D- 20.6% R)                 + 54.2% D
North Carolina- Chapel Hill- (81.5% D- 15.6% R)             + 65.9% D

Conf USA- East: 3/7 Completed

Florida Intl-  Huh?
Marshall- Huntington, WV        (43.9% D- 48.1% R)       +4.2% R
Middle Tennessee- Murfreesboro, TN
Old Dominion- Norfolk, VA---    (68.4% D- 25.9% R)       +42.5% D
Florida Atlantic- Boca Raton
Charlotte- Charlotte, NC
Western Kentucky- Bowling Green-   (48.1% D- 45.0% R)    +3.1% D

Conf USA- West 2/7 Completed

Louisiana Tech- Ruston, LA
North Texas- Denton, TX
Rice- Houston, Texas
UT San Antonio- San Antonio, Texas
Southern Mississippi- Hattiesburg---     (63.2% D- 32.9% R)        + 30.3% D
UAB- Birmingham, AL
UTEP- El Paso, TX--- 125,509 HRC (67.7% D)-  49,012 Trump (26.4% R)    +41.3% D


FBS- Independents 2/4 Complete

Notre Dame- South Bend, Indiana
Army- West Point, New York
BYU- Provo, Utah---          (19.2% D- 39.4% R- 34.9% McMullin)         +4.5% R * (Vs 3rd Party)
UMass- Amherst, MA----       (82.8% D- 8.4% R)----   +74.4% D

Mid-American East COMPLETED !!!!

Ohio-  Ohio University- Athens, OH----               (69.1% D- 24.4% R)      +44.7% D
Miami (OH)- Oxford, OH----                           (62.7% D- 31.9% R)      +30.8% D
Buffalo- SUNY Buffalo- Buffalo, NY----               (77.8% D- 18.2% R)      +59.6% D
Akron- University of Akron- Akron, OH  -             (67.6% D- 28.7% R)      +38.9% D
Kent State- Kent State University- Kent, OH---       (66.3% D- 27.0% R)      +39.2% D                  
Bowling Green State University- Bowling Green, OH-   (56.3% D- 35.8% R)      +20.5% D



Mid-American West: Completed

Toledo- University of Toledo-   Toledo, OH-                         (65.4% D- 29.2% R)    + 36.2% D
Northern Illinois- Northern Illinois University- DeKalb, IL---   (61.0% D- 29.2% R)    + 31.8% D
Ball State- Ball State University- Muncie, IN-      10,594 HRC (50.2% D- 42.2% R)   +8.0% D                
Western Michigan- Western Michigan University- Kalamazoo, MI---  (71.7% D- 21.5% R) + 50.2% D
Eastern Michigan- Eastern Michigan University- Ypsilanti, MI---     (80.9% D- 12.5% R)    + 68.4% D
Central Michigan- Central Michigan University- Mount Pleasant, MI--(58.8 % D- 33.0% R) +25.8% D



SEC- EAST: 4/6 Completed

Florida- University of Florida- Gainesville, FL- 50,884 HRC (68.1% D), 19156 Trump (+42.5% D)
Georgia- University of Georgia- Athens, GA- 29,603 HRC (65.1% D), 12,717 Trump (28.0% R)  +37.1% D
Kentucky- University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY
South Carolina- University of South Carolina- Columbia, SC- (65.0% D- 28.0% R)   +37.0% D
Tennessee- University of Tennessee- Knoxville, TN         (49.9 D- 42.9 R)      +7.0% D
Vanderbilt- Vanderbilt University- Nashville, TN

SEC-WEST: 6/7 Completed

Alabama- University of Alabama- Tuscaloosa, AL-  22,827 HRC (54.7% D), 17,073 Trump (40.9% R) + 13.8% D
Auburn University-Auburn, AL--     12,914 HRC (39.8% D), 17,189 Trump (52.9% R)    (+13.1% R)    
Texas A&M- Texas A& M University- College Station, TX- 5,397 HRC (35.3% D), 8,483 Trump (55.4% R)   + 20.1% R
Mississippi State- Mississippi State University- Starkville, MS---    (49.8% D- 45.4% R)    +4.4% D
Ole Miss- University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS-     (45.5% D- 49.7% R)                           +4.2% R
LSU-  Louisiana State University- Baton Rouge, LA
Arkansas- University of Arkansas- Fayetteville, AR    (54.2% D- 35.7% R)                    + 18.5% D

Sun Belt Conference: 5/12 Complete

Troy---  Troy University- Troy, Alab2,824 HRC (42.0% D), 2,611 (53.7% R)         + 13.7% R     Appalachian State University- Boone, North Carolina- (64.4% D- 25.9% R)          +  38.5% D
Idaho- University of Idaho- Moscow, Idaho-                (46.5% D- 32.7% R)          + 13.8% D  
Louisiana Monroe- University of Louisiana- Monroe, Louisiana  
Arkansas State University- Jonesboro, Arkansas 8,396 HRC (33.9%), Trump 14,823 (59.8% R)       + 25.7% R
Coastal Carolina- Coastal Carolina University- Conway, South Carolina  
Georgia State- Georgia State University- Atlanta, Georgia  
Georgia Southern- Georgia Southern University- Statesboro, Georgia  
New Mexico State- New Mexico State University- Las Cruces, New Mexico- 24,137 HRC (51.8% D), 17,124 Trump (36.7% R)      + 15.1% D  
Louisiana- University of Louisiana- Lafayette, Louisiana  
South Alabama- University of Alabama- Mobile, Alabama  
Texas State- Texas State University- San Marcos, Texas  

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Pretty amazing map if you look at it, especially considering that those graduating from the public universities with the highest status and prestige can pretty much roll out of college and get a job anywhere, and essentially represent the next generation of leaders in the worlds of business/commerce, math/science, political leadership, arts/culture, are voting so overwhelmingly against the party of Trump....

I still remember the days as a Gen Xer where the College Students were so much more conservative than the "townies" during the days of the "Reagan Youth", including working class precincts like mine....

That requires a fundamental assumption that the college town votes represent college students- particularly undergrads- themselves, rather than the feelings of career academics living in these communities.  Especially for campuses without on-campus voting, the number of undergrads voting on campus may be so tiny as to not be able to take any meaningful conclusions from (and often may not be representative, if the College Dems push voting from a campus address, for example).  Out of curiosity, do you have the numbers for LSU's campus precinct- to compare that with a relatively thorough mock election that they did?

What do you think of my list for undergrad students?

[NOVA Green]

Pretty amazing map if you look at it, especially considering that those graduating from the public universities with the highest status and prestige can pretty much roll out of college and get a job anywhere, and essentially represent the next generation of leaders in the worlds of business/commerce, math/science, political leadership, arts/culture, are voting so overwhelmingly against the party of Trump....

I still remember the days as a Gen Xer where the College Students were so much more conservative than the "townies" during the days of the "Reagan Youth", including working class precincts like mine....

That requires a fundamental assumption that the college town votes represent college students- particularly undergrads- themselves, rather than the feelings of career academics living in these communities.  Especially for campuses without on-campus voting, the number of undergrads voting on campus may be so tiny as to not be able to take any meaningful conclusions from (and often may not be representative, if the College Dems push voting from a campus address, for example).  Out of curiosity, do you have the numbers for LSU's campus precinct- to compare that with a relatively thorough mock election that they did?

What do you think of my list for undergrad students?

SEC-WEST: 7/7 Completed:

Louisiana State University:

***Flagship University ***

Baton Rouge, Louisiana:

50,247 HRC (67.7% D), 20,340 Trump (27.4% R)         +40.3% D

Note this excludes some split precincts, although likely this wouldn't dramatically move the needle much....

Although LSU is both a major educational facility courtesy of the legendary Louisiana Governor Huey Long, it's also a Government Town (State Capitol of LA), as well as a major oil refining town.

Additionally, Metro Baton Rouge is one of the fastest growing Metro areas in the US (#21), and also has experienced a significant increase in population as result of Katrina refugees, moving back to Louisiana after a decade of living in places like Houston, Dallas, and Austin, as well as a growing tech boom, much of which can likely be attributed to LSU....

The City itself is 54% African-American and 37% Anglo, with about 8% of the population being from Latino-American, Asian-American, or Mixed Family background and heritage.

Trump's margins that made the Parish much closer than the 50% of the vote from the City came heavily from places like Central and Zachary that voted 3:1 Trump, and rural precincts that went 4:1 Trump..... (Ballpark math here... could roll the numbers if someone really wants them).

So here's the graph.... LSU actually wins the prize for the most Democratic City in SEC-WEST, even beating Arkansas and Alabama, in what is a fairly conservative academic conference.



So to answer your question about the main LSU precinct, we see the following demographic info that includes both 18-21 year old populations, as well as 22-29 year olds, since after all there are many Undergrad students, as well as includes the giant net of grad students.....






Obviously, this helps gain a more comprehensive map that could potentially include students in off-campus housing in "University Ghetto" precincts....

Generally on-campus student housing is exclusively confined to undergrads, and in fact many students try to move off-campus once they hit the end of their Freshman or Sophomore year, or whatever University requirements dicatate....

Still, it appears that precinct 1-044, 1,046-, and 1-02 are exclusively located on University property, so this would be the "Dorm Vote":

1,261 HRC (82.1% D), 200 Trump (13.0% R)....      + 69.1% D

What is perhaps the most fascinating about this, is that a heavily White Southern University undergrad population appears to have voted significantly to the "Left" of the City at large, which is narrowly majority African-American....

Now if we roll down to precinct 1-102 located right around the LSU Golf Course (High proportion of those in their '20s.... (Grad Students? ) we see the following:

595 HRC (56.7%),  326 Trump (31.1% R)            + 25.6 % D.

Thus far your theory regarding Liberal University Professors and Grad Students voting overwhelmingly Democratic, while the student body leans Republican does not appear to be born out by the detailed data that I have presented regarding WVU, Jonesboro, and Baton Rouge....

If anything I suspect that the Professors and Grad students in many of these Communities actually voted to the "Right" compared to Undergrads....

So, one additional factoid....

With all the discussion of Flagship Universities, one would be remiss not to take a look at Southern University and A&M College with a student population of 5.2k  (The heavily Millennial area in the far NW corner of Baton Rouge for anyone interested)...

The history of White Supremacist rule in many of the former states of the Old Confederacy, did allow for the development of historically "Black Only" schools throughout the region after the end of Reconstruction.

These institutions were historically created after the American Apartheid Regime in the South was instituted because of some sell-out deal back in the 1880s regarding a closely contested Presidential Election.

These academic institutions were historically funded through money from private donors, and eventually a bit later on from small buckets of State Revenue in the Deep South, which chose to invest most of their Government $$$ into "White Only" Universities....

So... Southern University on the "other side of the railroad tracks":

Precinct 1-100:   515 HRC (96.1% D), 4 Trump (0.7%), 11 Stein (2.1%), 4 Johnson (0.7%)

+ 95,4% D

Precinct 1-094 right across the road from Southern University:

321 HRC (97.9% D) , 2 Trump (0.6% R), 3 Stein (0.9%), 1 Johnson (0.3%)        +97.3% D

So, obviously we need to be careful when trying to extrapolate College/University Millennial voters particularly in the Deep South for I-A Colleges/Universities, where many of these Universities tend to be much "Whiter" (I hate that term honestly) than the overall statewide population.

Regarding your list, (Assuming you are talking about the NYT link) will definitely need to look at this in further detail since my personal preference is a "bottom up" approach (Precinct level data) rather than all of the junk data that comes with Exit polling and self-identification, small sample size by state, etc....

Regarding your interpretive results of the data, will need to look at that as well...

Been working long hours at the Factory, and have mandatory OT scheduled tomorrow, but will try to take a look at this further this weekend...

[NOVA Green]

So here's a list of the cities that we are currently missing....

Posting this so that if anyone happens to have this data at their fingertips they can share, and help save a bit of time and effort, especially since some of the larger cities on this list are likely a bit more labor intensive than many others:

Data should be based on a total vote share, including all 3rd Party Votes, numbers along with the data would be totally awesome as well...

Judgement calls regarding extent of split-precinct influence, best to call out if identifiable to the point where it would significantly shift the overall % and margins....

AZ: Tempe, Tuscon
TX: Austin, Waco, Dallas, Houston, Denton, San Antonio, San Marcos
NM: Albuquerque
NV: Las Vegas
HI: Honolulu
FL: Tampa, Orlando, Tallahassee, Miami Gardens, FL INTL (), Boca Raton
TN: Memphis, Nashville
KY: Louisville, Lexington
GA: Atlanta
VA: Blacksburg
NC: Charlotte
LA: Ruston, Monroe, Lafayette
AL: Birmingham
IN: South Bend
NY: West Point
SC: Conway
AL: Mobile

Bonus Points:

Flagship Universities not yet included:

AK- Fairbanks
DE- Newark
MT- Missoula
NV- Reno
ND- Grand Forks
SD- Vermillion


I'll be doing a few updated spreadsheets over this weekend if possible for more of a visual guide to what the research has uncovered thus far....

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The bottom line is it is impossible to know with certainty how undergrads voted.  Also, it is likely that at public colleges only the freshmen (maybe less likely to register on campus their freshman year) and a few students who are "in with the administration" like RAs and the like will live on campus.  Even still, it is impossible to square the precinct (13% Trump??) with the campus mock election (Trump +15 at a time when it did not look like he would win the election) and other general demographic trends (plus, I think we could all agree that there is no way a majority white group of students in the Deep South voted overwhelmingly Democratic).  It may be that there is selection bias or that others (a significant number of live-in faculty members?).  The bottom line is that the best we can do here is make educated guesses, and we have different starting points.

Also, didn't DDHQ or somewhere do an analysis of the neighborhoods of all FBS schools (this would account for a mix of undergrads, postgrads, faculty, staff, and academics) a month or so following the election?

Finally, what do you think about the issue of Nashville's boundaries, as I mentioned earlier?  Should we just take Davidson County, or should we exclude the semi-independent neighborhoods that vote for both their own mayors and the mayor of Nashville?