VA-CNU: Northam +6

[heatcharger]

Link.
Crosstabs.

Governor:
Northam 47%
Gillespie 41%

Lt. Governor:

Fairfax 46%
Vogel 42%

Attorney General:
Herring 47%
Adams 40%

HoD generic ballot:

Democrats 47%
Republicans 40%

[Virginiá]

You know, I'd really like to say, "with a 7 point win in the HoD PV, no fair system would deny that party a majority in the chamber," but then again, this is America, where the more popular party is often the loser. Consider Michigan:




I think it would probably require closer to Michigan state House's 2008 PV blowout to take a VA HoD majority in one fell swoop, at least based on where VA Democrats are right now in the chamber.

[Gass3268]

You know, I'd really like to say, "with a 7 point win in the HoD PV, no fair system would deny that party a majority in the chamber," but then again, this is America, where the more popular party is often the loser. Consider Michigan:




I think it would probably require closer to Michigan state House's 2008 PV blowout to take a VA HoD majority in one fell swoop, at least based on where VA Democrats are right now in the chamber.

Democrats probably still pick up a good number a seats, especially in NoVA were there is still a lot of Republicans in very Democratic districts (few of the currently open seats), with a 7 point lead.

[Virginiá]

Democrats probably still pick up a good number a seats, especially in NoVA were there is still a lot of Republicans in very Democratic districts (few of the currently open seats), with a 7 point lead.

Oh, definitely. It's just going to take a number of favorable cycles to break down the VA GOP. We're just lucky that Trump's reelection will fall on a census year. 2021 will be the year where the HoD majority will be in reach if favorable maps are had.

Anyway, still looks good for Northam/VA Democrats. I'm just curious whether or not Northam will make further gains in mid-late October, and whether or not he over-performs. If there was any year where Democrats should over-perform, it would be this year.

[KingSweden]

High single digits for HoD Dems would be a solid night. Low doubles would be outstanding.

[windjammer]

Guys remember the VA gerrymander is cracking, Hillary won 51 seats with a 5 points margin.