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Author Topic: 2018 New Brunswick election  (Read 14362 times)
mileslunn
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« on: September 25, 2017, 01:30:53 pm »

In just under a year from now, New Brunswick goes to the polls.  While not as much polling as say in the Ontario election in June, there is some so we can get some trends.

Liberals:  Maintain a double digit lead in most polls although have fallen into the 40s while were in the 50s last year.  Approval rating of Brian Gallant is a bit over the map with some like Angus-Reid showing him sub 30 which would mean trouble, while others like CRA showing over 50% which would mean likely re-election.  In addition the Liberals tend to run up the margins in the Francophone parts so if the PCs and Liberals were tied in popular vote, the PCs would probably win more seats due to better voter efficiency.  Still I would say at this point the Liberals are the favourites, but no guarantee they will win.

PCs:  Trailing in the polls, but at least now in the 30s instead of 20s.  Also it seems in Atlantic Canada in recent provincial elections, the PCs have often gone up by 10% or more so a similar swing to what we saw in the recent Nova Scotia election would be enough for them to win.  I am guessing it is maybe voter confusion as the federal Tories still remain deeply unpopular due to the unpopularity of the Harper government, but the provincial Tories which are still your traditional Red Tories like most conservatives in Atlantic Canada so once the campaign gets under way and people see the provincial PCs are still Red Tories and have not swung to the right like their federal counterparts many traditional Tories return.  Still I think they have an uphill battle to win, but cannot be ruled out.  Also due to greater voter efficiency I think they have a better chance at winning the most seats than the popular vote.

Third Parties: NDP, Green, and People's Alliance aren't likely to win more than a seat or two so they will only matter if it's a nailbiter like BC was in which case they may form the balance of power but with both the Liberals and PCs being fairly centrist I suspect whichever party wins the most seats will get to form the government.  I would be shocked if the second place one gets propped up like the NDP in BC is.

Any thoughts?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2017, 04:48:55 am »

Only thing I would add is that the People's Alliance leader might win his seat. He barely lost last time, so any slip up by the Tories could give it to him.
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« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2017, 07:18:03 am »

Only thing I would add is that the People's Alliance leader might win his seat. He barely lost last time, so any slip up by the Tories could give it to him.

The NDP has a new leader after centrist New Democratic Party leader Dominic Cardy stepped down amid infighting.  The new leader has a decent resume I think (former business woman in the technology field and former Chair of the Ottawa School Board) however, she only moved back to the Atlantic a few years ago.
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« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2017, 07:26:09 am »

I have the distinct pleasure of having voted for the NDP's current leader when she was my school trustee back in 2010. Cheesy

Interestingly, chairing the OCDSB covers about the same number of voters as all of New Brunswick.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2017, 11:20:47 am »

I think the Greens, People's Alliance, and NDP may each win a seat or two, but doubt either is in the position to go much beyond.  In New Brunswick the NDP has always been a continuous third party and never gone much beyond a seat thus my skepticism.  That being said if super close a minority is always possible albeit very unlikely.  On the political spectrum the People's Alliance seems to lean the right while NDP and Greens to the left but with the PCs being Red Tories and Liberals being more centrist than progressive the two parties don't seem that far apart on the political spectrum unlike in other provinces. 
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adma
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2017, 11:35:23 pm »

Keep in mind that the most successful "third party" in recent NB history was the Confederation of Regions, who got 21% and 8 seats in 1991, good enough for Official Opposition.  (They lost them all in 1995.  Though not as aggressively anti-bilingual, the People's Alliance *might* be considered as something of a successor.)

Also re the NDP, ever since the 90s Alexa leadership they seem to have been stronger federally than provincially--they actually won *two* NB seats in 1997, and IIRC didn't sink below 15% in any NB riding in 2011, and the Yvon Godin "Bloc Acadien" effect was still evident in 2015 (though not enough to win seats)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2017, 01:17:42 am »

Keep in mind that the most successful "third party" in recent NB history was the Confederation of Regions, who got 21% and 8 seats in 1991, good enough for Official Opposition.  (They lost them all in 1995.  Though not as aggressively anti-bilingual, the People's Alliance *might* be considered as something of a successor.)

Also re the NDP, ever since the 90s Alexa leadership they seem to have been stronger federally than provincially--they actually won *two* NB seats in 1997, and IIRC didn't sink below 15% in any NB riding in 2011, and the Yvon Godin "Bloc Acadien" effect was still evident in 2015 (though not enough to win seats)

Good point and you are right the NDP did do somewhat better federally and in fact got 30% in the 2011 election in New Brunswick, but for whatever reason they have never managed to replicate that provincially.  As for COR, it seems the bilingualism issue has died down a bit and most have returned to the PCs although interestingly enough Mainstreet which showed the Liberals 20 points ahead showed them only 3 points ahead amongst Anglophones so there could be a strong linguistic divide in voting patterns.
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the506
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2017, 08:12:46 am »

The language issue has completely died down in the last 20 years. McKenna and Lord both took a pragmatic approach to the issue that placated both sides. There's still the odd agitator here and there, but for the most part nobody's looking to reopen that debate.

I can't put a handle on this one this far out. Higgs definitely has the policy chops - he was very much a straight shooter as finance minister and didn't care who he pissed off. If elections were only fought on that, he'd win in a landslide. But he hasn't come across as an effective campaigner, even during the PC leadership race. Gallant is the exact opposite. He had (still has) no discernible policy beyond "do what it takes to get elected".

The Liberals' biggest scandal to date has been the property tax disaster. The province calculates it on behalf of municipalities in NB, and they've switched to an automated GIS-based system that assumed renovations took place that never did, which meant assessments for some home owners almost doubled. The province has spent millions of dollars the last few months in rebates.

The thing that should scare the Liberals is how thin their vote is in anglo ridings, and their plans to keep it are becoming more and more transparent. A recent cabinet shuffle promoted Andrew Harvey (who against all odds won his rural anglo seat by <2%); and Gallant named himself regional minister for the Saint John/Fundy coast area, where 2 of their MLAs won by less than 2% (plus a 3rd they later lost in a byelection). It's also the same reason the Liberals gave Stephen Horsman, their only Fredericton MLA, as many cushy cabinet positions as they could.

As for the smaller parties....David Coon is a shoe-in to get re-elected (I live in his riding). Jennifer McKenzie hasn't announced where she's running yet, but I can't really see her winning anywhere she'd be seen as an outsider.

Kris Austin's seat could go either way. He would have won easily last time if the riding was just the Minto/Chipman area, but the parts of Fredericton attached to his riding didn't give him the time of day. But they are some of the most working-class neighbourhoods of the city, so I can see him taking it with an effective enough campaign. Just not sure if he has it in him.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2017, 08:26:22 am by the506 »Logged
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2017, 08:39:31 am »

The language issue has completely died down in the last 20 years. McKenna and Lord both took a pragmatic approach to the issue that placated both sides. There's still the odd agitator here and there, but for the most part nobody's looking to reopen that debate.

I can't put a handle on this one this far out. Higgs definitely has the policy chops - he was very much a straight shooter as finance minister and didn't care who he pissed off. If elections were only fought on that, he'd win in a landslide. But he hasn't come across as an effective campaigner, even during the PC leadership race. Gallant is the exact opposite. He had (still has) no discernible policy beyond "do what it takes to get elected".

The Liberals' biggest scandal to date has been the property tax disaster. The province calculates it on behalf of municipalities in NB, and they've switched to an automated GIS-based system that assumed renovations took place that never did, which meant assessments for some home owners almost doubled. The province has spent millions of dollars the last few months in rebates.

The thing that should scare the Liberals is how thin their vote is in anglo ridings, and their plans to keep it are becoming more and more transparent. A recent cabinet shuffle promoted Andrew Harvey (who against all odds won his rural anglo seat by <2%); and Gallant named himself regional minister for the Saint John/Fundy coast area, where 2 of their MLAs won by less than 2% (plus a 3rd they later lost in a byelection). It's also the same reason the Liberals gave Stephen Horsman, their only Fredericton MLA, as many cushy cabinet positions as they could.

As for the smaller parties....David Coon is a shoe-in to get re-elected (I live in his riding). Jennifer McKenzie hasn't announced where she's running yet, but I can't really see her winning anywhere she'd be seen as an outsider.

Kris Austin's seat could go either way. He would have won easily last time if the riding was just the Minto/Chipman area, but the parts of Fredericton attached to his riding didn't give him the time of day. But they are some of the most working-class neighbourhoods of the city, so I can see him taking it with an effective enough campaign. Just not sure if he has it in him.

What issues will Higgs push?
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the506
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2017, 08:53:46 am »

He's very much a "fiscal responsibility" guy, which put him in hot water with the public sector unions as finance minister. He wanted to do a straight austerity budget in 2011 but Alward talked him out of it.

Here's a good writeup on him and his beliefs from the leadership race:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/blaine-hills-pc-leadership-1.3808866
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mileslunn
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2017, 03:25:40 pm »

He's very much a "fiscal responsibility" guy, which put him in hot water with the public sector unions as finance minister. He wanted to do a straight austerity budget in 2011 but Alward talked him out of it.

Here's a good writeup on him and his beliefs from the leadership race:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/blaine-hills-pc-leadership-1.3808866

What do you think the chances of are of the Liberals winning the popular vote but losing the election.  It seems that the Liberals have a massive lead amongst Francophone voters but amongst Anglophones it is much closer thus why I bring up the idea of the Liberals winning the popular vote but losing seat wise.  I think the PCs winning seat wise is a lot more doable than winning the popular vote although both are possible and more likely than not neither will happen.
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the506
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2017, 08:12:38 pm »

That may be the PCs' best chance of winning. The Liberals are still up decently in the polls, but a lot of it seems to be Clinton-style running up the score in their safe Francophone seats.

They have very few safe seats (maybe 1-2) in anglophone regions and won most of them in 2014 by slim margins. The slightest mistake will sink them.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2017, 12:06:34 pm »

I went to a friend's wedding in New Brunswick yesterday. When the conversation turned to politics, the guests overwhelmingly supported the Tories. Of course my friend married into a family of church going Baptists, so my sample might be a tad unrepresentative Tongue
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« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2017, 01:55:50 pm »

New Brunswick Baptists supporting the Tories!? huge shoker! (sic)
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2017, 05:14:36 am »

That may be the PCs' best chance of winning. The Liberals are still up decently in the polls, but a lot of it seems to be Clinton-style running up the score in their safe Francophone seats.

They have very few safe seats (maybe 1-2) in anglophone regions and won most of them in 2014 by slim margins. The slightest mistake will sink them.

If the race tightened a little bit, I could see the Tories losing  Edmunston-Madawaska Centre but picking up marginal Anglo seats like Carleton-Victoria, Charlotte-Campobello, Fredericton North, and Saint John Harbour. That would give them a slim majority, and its quite conceivable that they could dothat while losing the PV by 5%.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2017, 05:23:08 am »

New Brunswick Baptists supporting the Tories!? huge shoker! (sic)

Truly an unexpected turn of events.
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adma
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2017, 08:54:56 pm »


If the race tightened a little bit, I could see the Tories losing  Edmunston-Madawaska Centre but picking up marginal Anglo seats like Carleton-Victoria, Charlotte-Campobello, Fredericton North, and Saint John Harbour. That would give them a slim majority, and its quite conceivable that they could dothat while losing the PV by 5%.

Will Dominic Cardy be running?  I can see him going for Fred N or StJ Harbour, at least if he's representing a Red Tory faction...
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the506
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« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2017, 11:11:33 pm »

He hasn't ruled it out. My guess is if he runs anywhere, it's Fredericton North. It's a suburban riding in his hometown that's perfect for his brand of politics.
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the506
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2017, 09:48:42 am »

MQO poll a year out: 41-36-12-7.

http://mqoresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Atlantic-Matters-Report-NB-Q4-2017.pdf
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mileslunn
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« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2017, 06:49:27 pm »

Looks like a Liberal win is not a sure thing, although would be interested to see linguistic breakdowns.  If the Liberals are still running up the margins in Francophone areas, this might be enough for the PCs to pull off a win due to greater voter inefficiency.  Noticed in both PEI and New Brunswick, the Conservatives federally up slightly but still way behind the federal Liberals, however only 5-7% points below their provincial counterparts but weaker splits.  If it is 53% Liberal to 31% Conservative that would probably be enough for the Tories to narrowly win Tobique-Mactaquac, Fundy-Royal, and New Brunswick Southwest, while they will need to close the gap further to win Fredericton, Miramichi-Grand Lake, and Saint John-Rothesay.  The other four they are too far behind to have any realistic chance in 2019.  I do think the small business changes faced a greater backlash in Atlantic Canada though than in some other provinces.

Nonetheless I still think of the premiers facing elections next year, Gallant is probably in the best position.  Wynne is likely to lose, Couillard will face an uphill battle to hold his majority although still has a greater than even chance of winning a plurality of seats.  All three provincial elections next year involve Liberal governments so I think the Liberal dominance of provincial governments will be weakened next year, but doubt they will lose all three.  If you count the CAQ as conservative, it's possible but not likely the conservatives will sweep all three, although I think they should pick up at least one.  If they did win all three it would mean only PEI, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, and Yukon have Liberal governments and population wise that is less than what live in provinces with NDP governments (BC and Alberta).  If the Tories or their equivalent win all three that would mean you would go from having only 6% of Canadians living in provinces with conservative governments to over 2/3 and probably jumping to over 75% the next year as Alberta seems likely to swing rightward in 2019.
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the506
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2017, 04:31:08 pm »

This can't be....can it?

http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/media_advisories/media_advisory.2017.10.1361.html
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mileslunn
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2017, 04:41:39 pm »


Maybe he should talk to Theresa May or David Peterson or anyone who worked with the late Jim Prentice.  Each of them called early elections opportunisticly and all lost or did much worse than expected in the case of Theresa May who should have been able to beat hard left Jeremy Corbyn in a landslide but barely scraped by.
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2017, 05:45:11 pm »

Approval rating of Brian Gallant is a bit over the map with some like Angus-Reid showing him sub 30 which would mean trouble, while others like CRA showing over 50% which would mean likely re-election.

I can't put a handle on this one this far out. Higgs definitely has the policy chops - he was very much a straight shooter as finance minister and didn't care who he pissed off. If elections were only fought on that, he'd win in a landslide. But he hasn't come across as an effective campaigner, even during the PC leadership race. Gallant is the exact opposite. He had (still has) no discernible policy beyond "do what it takes to get elected".



Maybe he should talk to Theresa May or David Peterson or anyone who worked with the late Jim Prentice.  Each of them called early elections opportunisticly and all lost or did much worse than expected in the case of Theresa May who should have been able to beat hard left Jeremy Corbyn in a landslide but barely scraped by.

Any chance Brian Gallant is meeting with the lieutenant-governor to tender his resignation as Premier, as he steps aside for a more policy-oriented Liberal MLA as the Liberal poll numbers, still formidable, begin to falter?  I'm thinking Kevin Rudd-Julia Gillard 2010, only voluntary and amicable.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2017, 05:47:46 pm by Kevinstat »Logged
the506
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2017, 07:08:28 pm »

I doubt it. Looking back, Gallant getting married last weekend and inexplicably releasing a TV attack ad on Higgs should have been a sign of something.

(How'd that be for a honeymoon? A bus trip to Bathurst.)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2017, 11:04:12 pm »

I've heard he might be proroguing as there is expected to be a throne speech on Tuesday so that is a way to reset the government's agenda.
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