2018 New Brunswick election

[Hatman 🍁]

If he calls an election, expect an NDP government

[mileslunn]

If he calls an election, expect an NDP government

Doubt it, but its true early opportunistic elections have produced NDP governments in places no one thought, i.e. Ontario in 1990 and Alberta in 2015.  Also across the pond Britain almost got a Labour government despite the fact they started with a 20 point deficit in the polls (I don't think they've ever a campaign with that big a deficit in the polls).  If anything I think an early call would probably help the PCs who are within striking distance of the Liberals if you believe the most recent MQO poll.

[DC Al Fine]

I doubt it. Looking back, Gallant getting married last weekend and inexplicably releasing a TV attack ad on Higgs should have been a sign of something.

(How'd that be for a honeymoon? A bus trip to Bathurst.)

I told my wife about this and she forbade me from running for office.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, why would Gallant want an election? He doesn't exactly have a massive lead, and the federal party is getting egg on their face right now.

[Hatman 🍁]

If he calls an election, expect an NDP government

Doubt it, but its true early opportunistic elections have produced NDP governments in places no one thought, i.e. Ontario in 1990 and Alberta in 2015.  Also across the pond Britain almost got a Labour government despite the fact they started with a 20 point deficit in the polls (I don't think they've ever a campaign with that big a deficit in the polls).  If anything I think an early call would probably help the PCs who are within striking distance of the Liberals if you believe the most recent MQO poll.

winking face = not serious

[the506]

But hey, if this does happen, I can see a couple NDP seats coming out of this if they play their cards right. They probably won't.

[Hatman 🍁]

Only if people still really hate the Tories there. If so, the Greens doing well is more likely.

[mileslunn]

Also, why would Gallant want an election? He doesn't exactly have a massive lead, and the federal party is getting egg on their face right now.

Over tax changes or Energy East Pipeline or both?  I've heard the cancellation of the Energy East Pipeline is going over well in New Brunswick.  Also the small business tax changes apparently faced more of a backlash in Atlantic Canada than most of the country.  My understanding is business ownership tends to be higher in smaller communities than large ones and in most parts of the country that is a non-issue as rural areas generally vote Tory elsewhere, but in Atlantic Canada they are quite rural yet go Liberal.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, why would Gallant want an election? He doesn't exactly have a massive lead, and the federal party is getting egg on their face right now.

Over tax changes or Energy East Pipeline or both?  I've heard the cancellation of the Energy East Pipeline is going over well in New Brunswick.  Also the small business tax changes apparently faced more of a backlash in Atlantic Canada than most of the country.  My understanding is business ownership tends to be higher in smaller communities than large ones and in most parts of the country that is a non-issue as rural areas generally vote Tory elsewhere, but in Atlantic Canada they are quite rural yet go Liberal.

I was thinking of tax changes + Morneau's terrible transparency optics, but more generally there are a lot fewer good vibes around the Liberal brand than this time last year.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Statement on Gallant LG visit refers to governments mandate as accomplished. However the statement also makes mention of a throne speech on Tuesday. PC leader Blaine Higgs is apparently preparing for an early election.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-election-premier-gallant-lieutenant-governor-1.4365236

[the506]

No early election. Gallant trolled us all.

https://t.co/LbiKHs8HGp

[the506]

Jennifer McKenzie is running in Saint John Harbour, which is Elizabeth Weir's old seat and where the Liberal incumbent is retiring.

With Fredericton South belonging to the Greens, this is the closest thing to an NDP-friendly seat in the province. It includes both one of those gentrifying hipster districts and the poorest neighbourhood in NB.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/ndp-leader-running-saint-john-harbour-1.4408848

[Hatman 🍁]

Smart move. If only Cardy had thought of that.

[the506]

Mainstreet: 41-40-10-9.

https://www.scribd.com/document/369752122/Mainstreet-NB-Jan23a2018

Like I said above, these numbers could very well translate to a PC majority since Liberal support is so concentrated.

[mileslunn]

Certainly using the past election, this would mean a PC majority as the PC vote is more efficient.  Liberals tend to win by much bigger margins in the Francophone portions while PCs win Anglophone areas (2/3 of the province) by narrower margins so more efficient.  Still polls are a bit all over the place so probably need to see a few more to see if this a trend or outlier.  I did run Mainstreet's federal numbers in a simulator and despite the 19 point Liberal lead in Atlantic Canada (I suspect it is a big tighter in New Brunswick as Tories always do better there than other Atlantic provinces, but Liberals still probably ahead) and it showed 6 Tories (Tobique-Mactaquac, New Brunswick Southwest, Fundy-Royal, Miramichi-Grand Lake, Saint John-Rothesay, and Fredericton) so even federally its possible Liberals could win New Brunswick by 10 points yet only win 4 seats to Tories 6 seats if you apply a uniform swing.  Oddly enough Bernard Lord in 2006 won the popular vote yet lost the election, but it seems since him, PC support has cratered in Francophone areas, but held up in Anglophone areas thus the difference.

[136or142]

Why are polling firms coming out with such differing numbers for Provincial elections these days?  I guess the Quebec numbers are fairly consistent between the firms but Ontario and New Brunswick are very different.  There was also the Calgary Mayoral election last year with wildly divergent numbers.

[mileslunn]

Why are polling firms coming out with such differing numbers for Provincial elections these days?  I guess the Quebec numbers are fairly consistent between the firms but Ontario and New Brunswick are very different.  There was also the Calgary Mayoral election last year with wildly divergent numbers.

For Ontario, Campaign research seems to be the outlier.  Ipsos is a bit off but too much and Innovative research as well as Nanos fairly close.  I find methodology is the biggest reason.

PCs strongest with IVR; CATI somewhere in between while weakest with online polls.

Liberals do best with CATI and online polls while weakest with IVR

NDP do best with IVR and online polls while worst with CATI.

In the case of New Brunswick, Mainstreet's poll last year closely matches Corporate Research while their more recent is similar to the last MQO research which is out again with another one this Thursday.  I think the volatility in New Brunswick is more less philosophical differences between two main parties.  The PCs are still very much your Red Tory types similar to the old PCs federally thus they have a similar base to the federal Tories, but much wider appeal amongst swing voters than the federal Tories do.  The Liberals are more centrist like your Chretien/Martin types as opposed to progressive like Trudeau so again its quite easy to swing between the two of them whereas federally the ideological differences are wide enough you won't see as big a swing. 

Same reason swings between Democrats and Republicans in the US are much weaker than in the past and why volatility in British polls is much less than a decade ago when philosophical differences were smaller.

[the506]

The PCs' only Francophone MLA (and longtime Lord and Alward cabinet minister), Mado Dubé, is stepping down.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/progressive-conservative-mla-madeleine-dub%C3%A9-1.4534868

It's looking more and more like the election will be fought along language lines. The PCs have no real foothold in francophone areas anymore (plus Higgs' French is barely passable), while the Liberals' only real safe anglophone MLAs are Rick Doucet, Chris Collins and maybe Cathy Rogers.

The Liberals best path to victory is to flip urban seats in Saint John and Fredericton, and with where they've been spreading around the goodies lately, they're trying.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are there more anglophone ridings or francophone ones?

[the506]

Anglophone.

But bilingual areas like Moncton and Bathurst tend to go Liberal, if only because French speakers have tended to vote more solidly Liberal lately than English speakers do Conservative. So that evens it out a bit.

[mileslunn]

MQO is out with a poll that for the first time shows the PCs in the lead.  Whether this a trend or a rogue poll we will have to see since if PCs win this would be the third one term government in a row.  Mainstreet research also shows it close by Liberals still slightly ahead but due to how busy they are on the Ontario front they haven't released the full details.  Also this poll shows the federal Tories ahead in New Brunswick too.

Provincial

PC 43%
Liberal 35%
Green 11%
NDP 7%

44% still undecided so obviously a strong potential for the numbers to shift significantly between now and September 24th.

Federal

Conservatives 44%
Liberals 37%
Greens 10%
NDP 7%

Considering how federal and provincial numbers are almost identical I wonder if there is some confusion as this rarely happens, the question is which is causing it.

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting federal numbers. The Tories would pick up 5 seats or so, and the NDP would probably win Acadie-Bathurst if they run another Godin.

[the506]

I'd bet on this being actual PC momentum, considering a couple reasons:

* The Liberals have stepped up their attacks on Blaine Higgs, including a new online ad buy that just started this week. They must have polling showing something is up.
* The PCs have recently introduced a slate of quality candidates to run in swing seats; including former MP Greg Thompson and Moira Kelly (the wife of ex-Graham cabinet minster Mike Murphy). Keith Ashfield was even slated to run before his tragic death last month. The Liberals only need to lose a handful of seats to lose power.

[adma]

Interesting federal numbers. The Tories would pick up 5 seats or so, and the NDP would probably win Acadie-Bathurst if they run another Godin.

At 7%, I doubt the latter.

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting federal numbers. The Tories would pick up 5 seats or so, and the NDP would probably win Acadie-Bathurst if they run another Godin.

At 7%, I doubt the latter.

Yeah you're probably right.