2018 New Brunswick election

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Only thing I would add is that the People's Alliance leader might win his seat. He barely lost last time, so any slip up by the Tories could give it to him.

The NDP has a new leader after centrist New Democratic Party leader Dominic Cardy stepped down amid infighting.  The new leader has a decent resume I think (former business woman in the technology field and former Chair of the Ottawa School Board) however, she only moved back to the Atlantic a few years ago.

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Why are polling firms coming out with such differing numbers for Provincial elections these days?  I guess the Quebec numbers are fairly consistent between the firms but Ontario and New Brunswick are very different.  There was also the Calgary Mayoral election last year with wildly divergent numbers.

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Will the NDP nominate more than 13 candidates?

It reminds me of the classic Sam Cooke song "Summertime (and the NDP is stuck on 13 candidates in New Brunswick.)"  The song is a favorite of a lot of people except for New Brunswick New Democrats but there aren't many of them.

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New Brunswick NDP have now nominated 16 candidates.  At the rate they're going they should have candidates in all 49 ridings by the time of the 2022 election.

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New Brunswick NDP have now nominated 16 candidates.  At the rate they're going they should have candidates in all 49 ridings by the time of the 2022 election.

I suspect if they cannot find enough, the leader will just appoint several.  The danger with this though is little time to vet so if they do by chance get any momentum, real risk they will have several nutty candidates that might scare people away.  By contrast if you have your nominations far enough in advance, you can properly vet candidates and weed out anyone that might cause trouble.

The appointed candidates are usually both paper candidates and parachute candidates.  Often a political party will appoint a semi-vetted party executive just to have the name on the ballot.  The Newfoundland and Labrador NDP did this in a number of ridings in the last election.

I'm sure the goal of the NDP is to have at least 25 candidates on the ballot so that it can claim that it can form a majority government and so, might be in a position where it would have to implement its promises.

Although the NDP did not win any seats in New Brunswick in 2014, this is still certainly a major come down given that I believe they received their highest share of the vote in a New Brunswick provincial election in 2014.

So far the NDP is also only running two really high profile candidates: the party leader and a former head of the New Brunswick Federation of Labour.  I'm not sure what impact this semi collapse of the NDP will have in regards to the opinion polls.

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New Brunswick election has been called off due to lack of interest on Dave Leip's Atlas Forum.    (Just kidding, about it being called off, that is.)

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New Brunswick election has been called off due to lack of interest on Dave Leip's Atlas Forum.    (Just kidding, about it being called off, that is.)

Might be more appropriate for the Alberta election, you know as the campaign starts not long after April 1st. Still got a little over 7 months until that day

Well, where is the 24/7 coverage of the New Brunswick election that I desire then?

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Ok what is this "people's alliance"? That's the vaguest name I've ever seen

Vaguer than Confederation of Regions?

How about the Quantum of Solace Party?

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Today was the last day of nominations. The PCs, Liberals and NDP are all running full slates; the Greens in all but two seats (missing Dieppe and Shippagan). The People's Alliance are running 30 candidates, mostly in Anglo ridings. There is also a party called "KISS" running 9 candidates.

So, I was wrong. The NDP did manage to pull together a full slate.

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Jennifer McKenzie is getting 5% of the vote in her riding.

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Jennifer McKenzie is getting 5% of the vote in her riding.

Um, no. She's over 10%

My mistake, sorry.  She's around 15%

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David Akin "Should the (New Brunswick) NDP continue to exist?"

David Akin is an idiot. Film at 11.

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David Akin "Should the (New Brunswick) NDP continue to exist?"

David Akin is an idiot. Film at 11.

Why not merge with the Greens? McKenzie's comments were kinda dumb. Going on about being the future of the province when you couldn't get higher than 3rd in your own riding is pretty pathetic.

Well, that's not what he said.  NDP supporters would say they have significant differences with the Greens.  I certainly don't know that the "NDP is the future of the province" but how many elections did the Greens run in before they started to win?

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Tied at 21 seats now.

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Are most of the Liberal ridings the Liberals are losing the open seat Liberal ridings?

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It seems it was mostly cabinet ministers who lost.

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It seems it was mostly cabinet ministers who lost.

Wonder if that's indicative of something or just luck of the draw.

I'm sure many of the Liberal MLAs are cabinet ministers, but there were, I believe, 7 or 8 ridings where Liberal MLAs weren't 'reoffering.'

Rick Doucet who had been a Liberal MLA since I believe 2003 though lost pretty badly.

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My usual question in these situations: any possibility of a 'grand coalition'?

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Interesting that some polls actually overestimated the Greens and the PA. They're only in the low teens.

Probably lacked the organization to get all their supporters out.

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As usual, this is a disgusting 'well hung' parliament.

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Apparently the final polls aren't reporting because the machines are down.

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Dominic Cardy must be happy.

Cardy's master plan worked, he completely destroyed the NDP in NB then jumped to the PCs

It's a bit odd, as far as I can recall usually when a person changes parties and runs for them they get crushed.  Like Ryan Cleary for instance.

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The 3rd Green has been declared elected.

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If it stays at 21-21 which party is in a better position to be asked to form a minority government ?

I'd guess the P.Cs because they're a better fit with the People's Alliance. But it would be 25-24.

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Dominic Cardy the mini Ross Thatcher.