2018 New Brunswick election

[Hatman 🍁]

I have the distinct pleasure of having voted for the NDP's current leader when she was my school trustee back in 2010.

Interestingly, chairing the OCDSB covers about the same number of voters as all of New Brunswick.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Brunswick Baptists supporting the Tories!? huge shoker! (sic)

[Hatman 🍁]

If he calls an election, expect an NDP government

[Hatman 🍁]

If he calls an election, expect an NDP government

Doubt it, but its true early opportunistic elections have produced NDP governments in places no one thought, i.e. Ontario in 1990 and Alberta in 2015.  Also across the pond Britain almost got a Labour government despite the fact they started with a 20 point deficit in the polls (I don't think they've ever a campaign with that big a deficit in the polls).  If anything I think an early call would probably help the PCs who are within striking distance of the Liberals if you believe the most recent MQO poll.

winking face = not serious

[Hatman 🍁]

Only if people still really hate the Tories there. If so, the Greens doing well is more likely.

[Hatman 🍁]

Smart move. If only Cardy had thought of that.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet includes the NDP, Conservatives and Greens in their Quebec poll, but doesn't include the People's Alliance in this one

[Hatman 🍁]

New Brunswick NDP have now nominated 16 candidates.  At the rate they're going they should have candidates in all 49 ridings by the time of the 2022 election.

I suspect if they cannot find enough, the leader will just appoint several.  The danger with this though is little time to vet so if they do by chance get any momentum, real risk they will have several nutty candidates that might scare people away.  By contrast if you have your nominations far enough in advance, you can properly vet candidates and weed out anyone that might cause trouble.

"Nutty candidates" won't be an issue for a party polling in single digits in a province so small. The Libs and PCs aren't going to waste time doing oppo research on them.

[Hatman 🍁]

In terms of momentum and media coverage the NDP might as well be the 5th party. The People's Alliance has even passed them.

Indeed; and if the recent released polls actually probed for the PANB, they would find that the NDP was polling in fifth too. Must frustrate you when these Toronto firms swoop in and can't poll the province properly, eh?

[Hatman 🍁]

"10% of voters would vote for a different party?" Huh I wonder why that would be

Meanwhile, Mainstreet is probing for the NDP and Conservatives in their Quebec polling.

[Hatman 🍁]

If you look at all the pollsters, the Liberals have been trending upwards throughout the campaign, so I guess it's possible.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today was the last day of nominations. The PCs, Liberals and NDP are all running full slates; the Greens in all but two seats (missing Dieppe and Shippagan). The People's Alliance are running 30 candidates, mostly in Anglo ridings. There is also a party called "KISS" running 9 candidates.

[Hatman 🍁]

There is quite a bit of a difference between the two, this time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Watching this debate and realizing how bad of a speaker Jennifer McKenzie is...

that's not the impression I got, but I didn't hear the beginning.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger has 41L/32C/10PA/8GN. Full writeup is paywalled in a local paper.

You missed the NDP which is also at 8%.

And that's the real story of this poll. There's no way the NDP is tied with the Greens.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum has the Liberals up 37-32-15-11-4

[Hatman 🍁]

Looking like a minority could be a possibility. A 4-5 point Liberal lead could put them close to the PCs in seat count (the PCs have a seat advantage it seems, with the Liberal vote so concentrated in Franco ridings), and the Greens+PANB will likely win at least 2 seats put together.

[Hatman 🍁]

I really hope the 506 finishes his riding analysis. It would help me analyze our internal polls better

I won't divulge much except to say it looks like there are a few ridings the Greens and PA have a shot outside of the seats they are expected to win in the Fredericton area.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is at rock bottom, there is no more room to hemorrhage to.

[Hatman 🍁]

CTV debate on Thursday. NDP and PANB not invited.

What about the Greens?

The insinuation was that they will be; they have a seat after all.

Parties are legitimized by whether or not they're in a debate, so it's possible there will be an effect, but I think it could be minimal, as they were all included in the last one. I think Austin is a lock to win his seat, but it's possible his exclusion from the debate may hurt the party's chances at winning a second seat (like Miramichi SW).

[Hatman 🍁]

CTV debate on Thursday. NDP and PANB not invited.

What about the Greens?

The insinuation was that they will be; they have a seat after all.

Parties are legitimized by whether or not they're in a debate, so it's possible there will be an effect, but I think it could be minimal, as they were all included in the last one. I think Austin is a lock to win his seat, but it's possible his exclusion from the debate may hurt the party's chances at winning a second seat (like Miramichi SW).

Will Ekos publicly post anything for New Brunswick and will like federally and Ontario, we get a seat projection?

All depends on the client (probably not), but I can do a projection for everyone here on election day, though. I won't put anything on the EKOS website because it would be weird if we did New Brunswick and not Quebec (we're not doing any polling in Quebec this time).

[Hatman 🍁]

There's a political compass for New Brunswick too:

I got:
Liberal 68%
Green 67%
NDP 61%
PANB 59%
PC 59%

And they put me as centre-right socially? lol These quizzes are dumb.

[Hatman 🍁]

Link?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/vote-compass-used-in-nb-1.4789522

[Hatman 🍁]

The random PC communities/ridings in otherwise Liberal Acadia are fascinating, if not puzzling. Two neighbour towns vote differently due to a rivalry? wtf?

[Hatman 🍁]

Looking at how Saint-Quentin votes federally, and yup, in typical Atlantic Canadian fashion, when they decide they don't want to vote Conservative, they vote NDP.