If you were told the GOP would just win over 300 electoral votes in mid 2015
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  If you were told the GOP would just win over 300 electoral votes in mid 2015
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Author Topic: If you were told the GOP would just win over 300 electoral votes in mid 2015  (Read 757 times)
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Computer89
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« on: September 25, 2017, 09:35:16 PM »



How would u think the map would look like


This is what I would have thought








Walker/Rubio 302
Clinton/Castro 236
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2017, 07:46:54 PM »

Nah I kinda saw the difference in white culture between suburban high school educated whites and the more intellectual and wealthy whites. I saw states flipping while traditional flipped states would go to Hillary.

I was typically mocked for my opinion.

Trump seems to do well in the blue collar states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) whereas I think more upscale whites in Virginia and Colorado will be a problem for him. Florida I have no clue.

I've been playing with the demographic calculator on 538, and even if Trump loses Romney's Hispanic numbers and the turnout is increased overall, he keeps it extremely competitive in the electoral college due to the turnout of non-college whites. In fact, if we can surmise that Trump will do better with black voters than Romney did (you can only go up from there), even if by a small percent, Trump's electoral votes gain drastically.

In fact, many of my calculations show a plausible scenario where Trump loses the popular vote by 1%, but wins a comfortable electoral college victory.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2017, 10:17:15 PM »
« Edited: September 26, 2017, 10:24:34 PM by MT Treasurer »



MI, NV, MN and VA are all very close.
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bagelman
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2017, 11:30:10 AM »

A decent enough starting point would be a 3% R swing from 2012



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