Quebec Municipal Elections 2017
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Author Topic: Quebec Municipal Elections 2017  (Read 9191 times)
lilTommy
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« on: September 27, 2017, 11:37:18 AM »

November 5th is the Election day for the provinces more then 1100 municipalities:

Montreal: Looking like a two way fight between current mayor Coderre (Equipe Denis Coderre, Personalist centrist) vs opposition leader Valerie Plante (Project Montreal, urbanist, progressive, social democratic)
*Denis Coderre (Equipe Denis Coderre) - current mayor, former Liberal Cabinet minister
*Valerie Plante (Projet Montreal) - Councillor since 2013 (Ville Marie Borough, she defeated former PQ cabinet minister Louise Harel)

Recent poll shows a basic dead heat, represented under lists:
Equipe DC (Coderre)  - 30%
PM (Plante) - 25%
Undecided - 41%

Were seeing a growing linguistic divide as well:
Francophone:
PM - 33%
eDC - 29%
Undecided - 36%

Anglophone:
eDC - 36%
PM - 10%
undecided - 53%

Not surprising, Plante leads among younger voters while Coderre leads among older ones. It would be nice to see this broken down by Borough as well since that will be an indication of Council seat distribution.

http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/indecision-reigns-as-poll-puts-coderre-plante-in-dead-heat-for-mayoralty

Interesting that a number of former NDP MPs are running for Mayor's position in the Montreal area:
Hoang Mai is running for Mayor of Brossard,
Sadia Groguhe is running for Mayor of Longueuil,
Jamie Nicholls is running for Mayor of Hudson
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2017, 12:29:14 PM »

Would be pleasantly surprised if Coderre loses.
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DL
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2017, 04:10:13 PM »

Would be pleasantly surprised if Coderre loses.

That poll strikes me as very bad news for Coderre. Normally an incumbent mayor is a shoe-in for re-election. For him to be at just 30% is very very bad, true he has a 5% lead, but that leaves a very large proportion who are not sure they want to re-elect him...and he has an incalculable advantage in name recognition compared to Valerie Plante...she likely has no where to go but up.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2017, 05:05:35 PM »

Incumbent mayors usually do very well, yes. But not as well if there are parties. You'll never see a mayor win a huge landslide in Vancouver, for example.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2017, 06:31:27 AM »

Whats really telling is that Coderre is trailing among francophones, in Montreal you can't win without them. But a huge undecideds group so right now its anyones game and to me that is bad news for Coderre.
The issues in MTL is that there is really only one viable "party" or list, and that's Projet Montreal; most of the other groups are personalist or Borough specific. Coalition Montreal, which is running for some reason, is only pulling less then 5% and I think has maybe 2 Councillors. PM seems very grassroots and organised as a party, which is why its continued to succeed even when former leader and founder Richard Bergeron left, where as other parties have collapsed when leaders left like Union Montreal, Vrai Chagement (remember the outfit to get Melanie Joly elected) and Coalition Montreal.

With how fluid and loose the lists are, you can see there's been lots of movement by elected officials since 2013 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_municipal_election,_2017
 
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2017, 09:41:46 AM »

The guy running for mayor for coalition Montreal is a former Tory candidate? Wikipedia says they are a "centre-left" party though...
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MaxQue
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2017, 04:33:03 PM »

No vote for me this year, both my mayor and my councillor were reelected without opposition.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2017, 11:34:41 PM »

The guy running for mayor for coalition Montreal is a former Tory candidate? Wikipedia says they are a "centre-left" party though...

They scrape what they can, now one of their candidates is in trouble for saying then feminism is a mental illness.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2017, 08:27:07 AM »

The guy running for mayor for coalition Montreal is a former Tory candidate? Wikipedia says they are a "centre-left" party though...

They scrape what they can, now one of their candidates is in trouble for saying then feminism is a mental illness.

Ahh. Should change their ideology to "alt-right"
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2017, 09:39:46 AM »

The guy running for mayor for coalition Montreal is a former Tory candidate? Wikipedia says they are a "centre-left" party though...

They scrape what they can, now one of their candidates is in trouble for saying then feminism is a mental illness.

Ahh. Should change their ideology to "alt-right"

Is it possible that the party was hijacked? I imagine it couldn't be that hard to hijack a municipal party.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2017, 10:50:15 AM »

The guy running for mayor for coalition Montreal is a former Tory candidate? Wikipedia says they are a "centre-left" party though...

They scrape what they can, now one of their candidates is in trouble for saying then feminism is a mental illness.


Ahh. Should change their ideology to "alt-right"

Is it possible that the party was hijacked? I imagine it couldn't be that hard to hijack a municipal party.

Maybe, but hijacked by Coderre himself? it's a personalist list "Equipe Denis Coderre" so I think anyone from the centre to right wing who are looking for a name to jump onto and a vehicle to be elected tried to run for the nomination under his list. Most of the candidates/Councillors were from the old Union Montreal which says it was centrist but looked more centre-right.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2017, 11:26:17 AM »

The guy running for mayor for coalition Montreal is a former Tory candidate? Wikipedia says they are a "centre-left" party though...

They scrape what they can, now one of their candidates is in trouble for saying then feminism is a mental illness.


Ahh. Should change their ideology to "alt-right"

Is it possible that the party was hijacked? I imagine it couldn't be that hard to hijack a municipal party.

Maybe, but hijacked by Coderre himself? it's a personalist list "Equipe Denis Coderre" so I think anyone from the centre to right wing who are looking for a name to jump onto and a vehicle to be elected tried to run for the nomination under his list. Most of the candidates/Councillors were from the old Union Montreal which says it was centrist but looked more centre-right.

We're not talking about Coderre's party, we're talking about Coalition Montréal.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2017, 01:59:56 PM »

The guy running for mayor for coalition Montreal is a former Tory candidate? Wikipedia says they are a "centre-left" party though...

They scrape what they can, now one of their candidates is in trouble for saying then feminism is a mental illness.

Ahh. Should change their ideology to "alt-right"

Is it possible that the party was hijacked? I imagine it couldn't be that hard to hijack a municipal party.

Probably, their main campaign plank is to reduce taxes by 10% by delaying road works, asking government to transfer some city powers to the Metropolitan Community (spliting the bill between 82 towns, instead) and by a tax on people using water to heat or climatize their home.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2017, 02:28:34 PM »

The guy running for mayor for coalition Montreal is a former Tory candidate? Wikipedia says they are a "centre-left" party though...

They scrape what they can, now one of their candidates is in trouble for saying then feminism is a mental illness.


Ahh. Should change their ideology to "alt-right"

Is it possible that the party was hijacked? I imagine it couldn't be that hard to hijack a municipal party.

Maybe, but hijacked by Coderre himself? it's a personalist list "Equipe Denis Coderre" so I think anyone from the centre to right wing who are looking for a name to jump onto and a vehicle to be elected tried to run for the nomination under his list. Most of the candidates/Councillors were from the old Union Montreal which says it was centrist but looked more centre-right.

We're not talking about Coderre's party, we're talking about Coalition Montréal.

And now their mayoral candidate is suspending his campaign and endorsing Valérie Plante (Projet Montréal, left-wing), to not divide the anti-Coderre vote.
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2017, 12:26:04 PM »

I was planning on voting for Fortier. Might still vote for him as a protest, because I see Coderre as corrupt and a bully and Plante as having ideas that are a little pie-in-the-sky. What's interesting is that Coalition doesn't have that many candidates, and the ones they have are all over the place. One posted a bunch of anti-feminist stuff and has no political background. Another, Deborah Rankin, is an experienced, poised Anglophone journalist.

I can speak for the Plateau (my part of town), which is a Projet stronghold by all definitions of the word. However, Equipe Coderre has a legitimately very strong slate. Zach Macklovitch, running for Plateau borough mayor, is young and runs 3 of the area's most popular clubs, along with a major promotion company. His appeal as both an entrepreneur and somebody well known in the area makes him a strong competitor against Luc Ferrandez. Additionally, in Jeanne-Mance, where there is still a large Portuguese population, Daniel Loureiro, who works for the Portuguese consulate as a community organizer, is one of Equipe Coderre's candidates. He's well known among the Portuguese here and he's working really hard on the ground. If anybody Coderre can win in the Plateau it's one of these two.

Coderre will win the overall mayoral race based on strength outside the downtown core/Plateau/Rosemont/Hochelaga. In an interview last week he called Projet the "clan from the Plateau". Running a populist campaign to say the least.
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DL
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2017, 06:23:01 PM »

When Coderre refers derisively to Projet Montreal as “that clan from the Plateau”, it can’t be very helpful to candidates running under Coderre’s banner in the Plateau
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2017, 10:31:51 AM »

When Coderre refers derisively to Projet Montreal as “that clan from the Plateau”, it can’t be very helpful to candidates running under Coderre’s banner in the Plateau

True, but he somehow found candidates who are good embodiments of the Plateau and its culture. There was a decent amount of crossover vote in 2013, but I wonder if things will be more partisan this time around.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2017, 02:38:40 PM »

When Coderre refers derisively to Projet Montreal as “that clan from the Plateau”, it can’t be very helpful to candidates running under Coderre’s banner in the Plateau

True, but he somehow found candidates who are good embodiments of the Plateau and its culture. There was a decent amount of crossover vote in 2013, but I wonder if things will be more partisan this time around.

I would argue Coderre found good candidates in areas where his party is weak, but I think that's also the case for Projet Montréal.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2017, 05:18:29 AM »

I was planning on voting for Fortier. Might still vote for him as a protest, because I see Coderre as corrupt and a bully and Plante as having ideas that are a little pie-in-the-sky. What's interesting is that Coalition doesn't have that many candidates, and the ones they have are all over the place. One posted a bunch of anti-feminist stuff and has no political background. Another, Deborah Rankin, is an experienced, poised Anglophone journalist.

Funny you call him a bully, Radio-Canada investigation office has an hit piece saying than the mayor Cabinet bullies public servants, election officials and even journalists in Montreal.
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2017, 09:21:49 AM »

I was planning on voting for Fortier. Might still vote for him as a protest, because I see Coderre as corrupt and a bully and Plante as having ideas that are a little pie-in-the-sky. What's interesting is that Coalition doesn't have that many candidates, and the ones they have are all over the place. One posted a bunch of anti-feminist stuff and has no political background. Another, Deborah Rankin, is an experienced, poised Anglophone journalist.

Funny you call him a bully, Radio-Canada investigation office has an hit piece saying than the mayor Cabinet bullies public servants, election officials and even journalists in Montreal.

He's personally insulted some of my journalist friends when they ask questions. Dude hates the media...
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lilTommy
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2017, 07:38:07 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2017, 09:25:10 AM by lilTommy »

Leger Poll from Oct 22:
http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/new-poll-shows-race-for-mayor-in-dead-heat-1.3647746

Both Equipe Denis Coderre and Project Montreal are at 38% (eDC -5% PM +9%) 21% undecided

http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/mayoral-race-a-dead-heat-as-non-francophones-turn-to-valerie-plante-poll

Interesting: "The latest poll suggest that non-francophone electors, a voting bloc that helped propel Coderre to city hall in 2013, are paying attention to Plante, the Projet Montréal candidate seeing an 11 percentage point spike in support, placing her at 36 per cent, two points ahead of Coderre."

http://blog.qc125.com/2017/10/exclusif-qc125-denis-coderre-et-valerie.html?m=1

Francophones:
eDC - 43%(-6)
PM - 40% (+8)

non-Francophones:
eDC - 34% (-3)
PM -36% (+11)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2017, 04:35:21 PM »

All of the mayoral candidates in Gatineau oppose the face covering ban: http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/gatineau-mayoral-candidates-denounce-quebec-face-covering-ban

Smiley
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2017, 06:10:23 AM »

Plante is winning! Smiley

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/val%C3%A9rie-plante-denis-coderre-in-dead-heat-with-just-days-to-go-before-municipal-election-poll-1.4377735

Plante: 39%
Coderre: 37%
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DL
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2017, 09:21:12 AM »

One thing to keep in mind is that these polls also have an impact on city council races. If the mayoral vote is very close, it suggests that even if Coderre eeks out a win, his party would likely suffer major losses to Projet Montreal on council
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2017, 09:48:28 AM »

Yeah, I mean... what happens if Coderre become mayor, but PM gets a majority of seats on council? Anarchy? Wouldn't Coderre be mayor in name only, and Plante (assuming her colistier wins) be the real mayor?
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