FL-Chamber of Commerce (R): Scott +2

[The Other Castro]

Rick Scott - 47%
Bill Nelson - 45%

Trump approval: 48-50 (-2)

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http://floridapolitics.com/archives/245619-florida-chamber-poll-rick-scott-leads-bill-nelson-senate-race

[krazen1211]

Great poll!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Brief hurricane bump. Sadly it won't last.

[PragmaticPopulist]

There probably is an Irma effect, but this poll was taken by Cherry Communications, which 538 gives a C, so it's not the best of pollsters.

[UncleSam]

Ya temporary Irma bump + R pollster makes this actually not that bad a poll for Nelson haha

Like if you figure there isn't a Hurricane with the same reaction next year + not an R pollster electoral assumptions then it's probably Nelson + 3 or something (which is what I kin of expect this race to end up as if Scott gets in).

Of course Scott might get a bump from actively campaigning, so who knows. It's obvious he would be a strong candidate for this seat though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean D

[NewYorkExpress]

Tilt R at the moment...but Republicans do have better opportunities (North Dakota, West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri), and will have to play defense in Nevada, Arizona and possibly Texas, so I don't actually think Nelson loses.

Plus there's the possibility Scott doesn't run. Who do Republicans turn to? Jeb Bush?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I still think this race is Nelson's to lose.

[Heisenberg]

Tilt R at the moment...but Republicans do have better opportunities (North Dakota, West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri), and will have to play defense in Nevada, Arizona and possibly Texas, so I don't actually think Nelson loses.

Plus there's the possibility Scott doesn't run. Who do Republicans turn to? Jeb Bush?

LOL no, Jeb is too low energy and badly damaged from his disastrous run for President last year. Not to mention he'll get clobbered in the primary. Without Scott, I think the primary is DeSantis's to lose. He'll probably switch from Governor to Senate since Putnam seems to be a lock for the Gubernatorial primary.

[_]

Tossup

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tilt R at the moment...but Republicans do have better opportunities (North Dakota, West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri), and will have to play defense in Nevada, Arizona and possibly Texas, so I don't actually think Nelson loses.

Plus there's the possibility Scott doesn't run. Who do Republicans turn to? Jeb Bush?

Texas is Safe R. But otherwise, this.

[Maxwell]

I'm not gonna go around underestimating Lord Voldemort, but this is not exactly great considering this is probably the highest his approval ratings his ever been.

[Young Conservative]

Tilt R at the moment...but Republicans do have better opportunities (North Dakota, West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri), and will have to play defense in Nevada, Arizona and possibly Texas, so I don't actually think Nelson loses.

Plus there's the possibility Scott doesn't run. Who do Republicans turn to? Jeb Bush?

There really isn't though.

[Smilin Jim]

Soon, the democrat party won't hold any statewide offices in Florida. So much for demographics being destiny.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Trump is only at minus 2.

[Person Man]

The CoC is releasing a lot of dubious polls lately.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Trump is only at minus 2.

...which makes it very suspect seeing as how Florida is about R+2 in PVI and he's back down below 40 in approval nationally.

Exactly.

[KingSweden]

lol I like how Krazen popped up just to comment on this (very dubious) poll

[MT Treasurer]

Tossup with Scott, though beating Nelson definitely won't be easy. I feel like this could be a MO-SEN 2016 redux: An inoffensive boring Establishment incumbent who is expected to cruise to reelection faces a surprisingly tough challenge but still wins 51/48 or so in the end. But like I said, I wouldn't underestimate how many Scott/Morgan voters there could be in the GE.

Either way, this race is probably a good bellwether.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Another Hurricane is enroute to Tallahassee as of tonight. A very weak Cat 1. Assuming Scott handles it as well as the last one (which was a real storm), he might get locked in with a small but sustaining lead that probably won't erode until sometime next year. Definitely want to see more polls soon.

[Person Man]

I don't think a cat 1 will generate much press.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I don't think a cat 1 will generate much press.

Local press, which is what counts.

[Person Man]

I don't think a cat 1 will generate much press.

Local press, which is what counts.

and now its heading to Louisiana.

[UncleSam]

I get that this is a political forum but I find speculation as to political consequences of natural disasters that haven't even happened yet a bit distasteful. It's different when analyzing after effects - but making a prediction as to a future storm almost sounds like you're rooting for a disaster for political gain.