Probability that these 2016 #NeverTrumpers endorse Trump in the 2020 GE?

[Mr. Morden]

Assuming that Trump is the 2020 GOP nominee for president, what is the probability that each of these folks will endorse Trump in the general election next time?  (Let’s define “endorse” to mean “publicly state that they’re voting for him”.)

George W. Bush
Jeb Bush
Susan Collins
Jeff Flake
Lindsey Graham
John Kasich
John McCain*
Lisa Murkowski
Mitt Romney
Ben Sasse

None of those people endorsed Trump in 2016.  (Well, a couple of them did initially, but then recanted their endorsement after the Access Hollywood tape, and weren’t endorsing him anymore as of election day.)  Will 2020 be different?

Bonus question: How many of those ten people will endorse someone other than Trump in the 2020 primaries?

* Given McCain’s health condition, I suppose his reason for not endorsing might be that he’s no longer alive.  

[NewYorkExpress]

Kasich will be running against Trump, so he obviously won't endorse him in the primaries...and he'd probably write in his own name instead of Trump's in 2020.

The others will be neutral, not because they support Trump, but because they're afraid of reprisals (with the exception of McCain, who may not be alive by that point)/

[Mr. Morden]

The others will be neutral, not because they support Trump, but because they're afraid of reprisals (with the exception of McCain, who may not be alive by that point)/

Given the talk of Romney running for Senate in Utah should Hatch retire, I wonder if that changes the calculus for him re: endorsement of Trump in 2020.  If he's a private citizen though, then I think it's highly unlikely that he endorses Trump next time.

Also, regarding reprisals, I'm not sure why someone who no longer holds public office, like Jeb Bush, should be worried about reprisals.  What's Trump going to do to him?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

(Added on a few names)

George W. Bush: No. I don't think Trump will even try to get his endorsement. The bush name is bad enough as it is and Trump hates the Bushes even more than the average american.
Jeb Bush: No. Same reason as above.
George H.W. Bush (if still alive): No. Same reason as above.
Susan Collins: If she's governor of Maine by then, No. She would be firmly detached with Washington and endorsing Trump wouldn't make sense politically either given Maine's dem lean. If she's still a senator, maybe, though it might require some sort of reward, like a cabinet position.
Jeff Flake: No, mostly because Sinema will have his seat.
Lindsey Graham: Yes
John Kasich: No. He'll be primarying Trump, or endorsing whoever does.
John McCain (if still alive): No, unless Trump is extremely nice to him.
Lisa Murkowski: Yes
Mitt Romney: Yes if he's a senator, No otherwise.
Ben Sasse: LOL No.
Mark Kirk: No, mostly because he'll probably be irrelevant.
Bruce Rauner: No, because it makes sense politically for him to refuse.
Charlie Baker: LOL No.

[NewYorkExpress]

The others will be neutral, not because they support Trump, but because they're afraid of reprisals (with the exception of McCain, who may not be alive by that point)/

Given the talk of Romney running for Senate in Utah should Hatch retire, I wonder if that changes the calculus for him re: endorsement of Trump in 2020.  If he's a private citizen though, then I think it's highly unlikely that he endorses Trump next time.

Also, regarding reprisals, I'm not sure why someone who no longer holds public office, like Jeb Bush, should be worried about reprisals.  What's Trump going to do to him?

Clearly you've forgotten our President's propensity for inciting violence.

[Mr. Morden]

The others will be neutral, not because they support Trump, but because they're afraid of reprisals (with the exception of McCain, who may not be alive by that point)/

Given the talk of Romney running for Senate in Utah should Hatch retire, I wonder if that changes the calculus for him re: endorsement of Trump in 2020.  If he's a private citizen though, then I think it's highly unlikely that he endorses Trump next time.

Also, regarding reprisals, I'm not sure why someone who no longer holds public office, like Jeb Bush, should be worried about reprisals.  What's Trump going to do to him?

Clearly you've forgotten our President's propensity for inciting violence.

I mean, that didn't stop Bush and others from withholding an endorsement last time.  So you're suggesting that....what?  Now that he's president, he's going to send the National Guard down to Miami to extract an endorsement out of Jeb?

[NewYorkExpress]

The others will be neutral, not because they support Trump, but because they're afraid of reprisals (with the exception of McCain, who may not be alive by that point)/

Given the talk of Romney running for Senate in Utah should Hatch retire, I wonder if that changes the calculus for him re: endorsement of Trump in 2020.  If he's a private citizen though, then I think it's highly unlikely that he endorses Trump next time.

Also, regarding reprisals, I'm not sure why someone who no longer holds public office, like Jeb Bush, should be worried about reprisals.  What's Trump going to do to him?

Clearly you've forgotten our President's propensity for inciting violence.

I mean, that didn't stop Bush and others from withholding an endorsement last time.  So you're suggesting that....what?  Now that he's president, he's going to send the National Guard down to Miami to extract an endorsement out of Jeb?

It does sound like something he, or an underling working for him, would do (Chris Christie, maybe)

[Figueira]

(Added on a few names)

George W. Bush: No. I don't think Trump will even try to get his endorsement. The bush name is bad enough as it is and Trump hates the Bushes even more than the average american.
Jeb Bush: No. Same reason as above.
George H.W. Bush (if still alive): No. Same reason as above.
Susan Collins: If she's governor of Maine by then, No. She would be firmly detached with Washington and endorsing Trump wouldn't make sense politically either given Maine's dem lean. If she's still a senator, maybe, though it might require some sort of reward, like a cabinet position.
Jeff Flake: No, mostly because Sinema will have his seat.
Lindsey Graham: Yes
John Kasich: No. He'll be primarying Trump, or endorsing whoever does.
John McCain (if still alive): No, unless Trump is extremely nice to him.
Lisa Murkowski: Yes
Mitt Romney: Yes if he's a senator, No otherwise.
Ben Sasse: LOL No.
Mark Kirk: No, mostly because he'll probably be irrelevant.
Bruce Rauner: No, because it makes sense politically for him to refuse.
Charlie Baker: LOL No.

Why? It's not like Utah would be that upset if Romney didn't endorse Trump.

[JonHawk]

None of them. And i highly doubt Trump cares about or wants there endorsement. Also i dont think Kasich will running in the primaries. Even if he does he'll only get a few states before dropping out.

[UWS]

(Added on a few names)

George W. Bush: No. I don't think Trump will even try to get his endorsement. The bush name is bad enough as it is and Trump hates the Bushes even more than the average american.
Jeb Bush: No. Same reason as above.
George H.W. Bush (if still alive): No. Same reason as above.
Susan Collins: If she's governor of Maine by then, No. She would be firmly detached with Washington and endorsing Trump wouldn't make sense politically either given Maine's dem lean. If she's still a senator, maybe, though it might require some sort of reward, like a cabinet position.
Jeff Flake: No, mostly because Sinema will have his seat.
Lindsey Graham: Yes
John Kasich: No. He'll be primarying Trump, or endorsing whoever does.
John McCain (if still alive): No, unless Trump is extremely nice to him.
Lisa Murkowski: Yes
Mitt Romney: Yes if he's a senator, No otherwise.
Ben Sasse: LOL No.
Mark Kirk: No, mostly because he'll probably be irrelevant.
Bruce Rauner: No, because it makes sense politically for him to refuse.
Charlie Baker: LOL No.

Why? It's not like Utah would be that upset if Romney didn't endorse Trump.

Right. I don't think that Romney would need to endorse Trump if he's Senator because Utah is among the most anti-Trump red states. And remember the outrageous comments Trump made about Mormons.

[uti2]

(Added on a few names)

George W. Bush: No. I don't think Trump will even try to get his endorsement. The bush name is bad enough as it is and Trump hates the Bushes even more than the average american.
Jeb Bush: No. Same reason as above.
George H.W. Bush (if still alive): No. Same reason as above.
Susan Collins: If she's governor of Maine by then, No. She would be firmly detached with Washington and endorsing Trump wouldn't make sense politically either given Maine's dem lean. If she's still a senator, maybe, though it might require some sort of reward, like a cabinet position.
Jeff Flake: No, mostly because Sinema will have his seat.
Lindsey Graham: Yes
John Kasich: No. He'll be primarying Trump, or endorsing whoever does.
John McCain (if still alive): No, unless Trump is extremely nice to him.
Lisa Murkowski: Yes
Mitt Romney: Yes if he's a senator, No otherwise.
Ben Sasse: LOL No.
Mark Kirk: No, mostly because he'll probably be irrelevant.
Bruce Rauner: No, because it makes sense politically for him to refuse.
Charlie Baker: LOL No.

Does Sasse survive his primary if he refuses to endorse?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I'm going with none, but Ben Sasse might under the right circumstances.

Also, Susan Collins will do her best to stay out of it but might be forced to accept/decline an offer to campaign with Trump if he decides to seriously contest the statewide vote in Maine since she will be on the ballot at the same time as him.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, I think that Murkowski was the only Republican Senator last year who 1) had a primary that was held *after* Trump clinched the nomination, and 2) was refusing to endorse Trump at the time said primary was held.  Ayotte and McCain also had primaries in the fall, but they were endorsing Trump at the time, and then later rescinded their endorsements after the Access Hollywood tape came out.  Every other Senator who wouldn't endorse him either wasn't up last year or faced primaries in the spring, before Trump clinched the nomination.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

None. All he has done is insult them ever since he became president.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm going with none, but Ben Sasse might under the right circumstances.

Also, Susan Collins will do her best to stay out of it but might be forced to accept/decline an offer to campaign with Trump if he decides to seriously contest the statewide vote in Maine since she will be on the ballot at the same time as him.

I doubt Collins is even going to run for re-election.