PPP: Biden and other Dems all lead Trump; Trump leads potential primary

[Mr. Morden]

Compared to their last poll:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=271374.msg5795514#msg5795514

the biggest change is on Booker.  He goes from +3 over Trump to +7 over Trump in this new poll.  Sanders is the only one to go backwards, from +13 over Trump last month to +11 over Trump now.

[Mr. Morden]

Once again, as with their past polls, the differences in electability seem to stem largely in differences in name recognition, as there’s a high %age of undecideds among 2016 Clinton voters for lesser known candidates like Harris….

Biden vs. Trump:

Clinton ’16 voters:
Biden 89%
Trump 5%
not sure 5%

Trump ’16 voters:
Trump 86%
Biden 10%
not sure 3%

But for Harris vs. Trump…

Clinton ’16 voters:
Harris 75%
Trump 5%
not sure 21%

Trump ’16 voters:
Trump 88%
Harris 5%
not sure 7%

Incidentally, Michelle Obama, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Hillary Clinton herself are the only Dem. candidates tested for whom only 3 or 4% of 2016 Clinton voters defect to Trump in these matchups.  For everyone else, it’s 5% or more.

It’s also interesting that Harris’s lack of name recognition is about on par with that of Gillibrand, with both seemingly being not as well known as Booker.  Though Gillibrand gets more undecideds among voters under 45, while Harris has more undecideds among voters over 45.

Also, here’s another fun crosstab….

What percentage of the black vote does Trump get against the following opponents?:

Trump share of the black vote vs. Booker: 7%
Trump share of the black vote vs. Harris: 7%
Trump share of the black vote vs. Sanders: 7%
Trump share of the black vote vs. Biden: 6%
Trump share of the black vote vs. Clinton: 5%
Trump share of the black vote vs. Gillibrand: 4%
Trump share of the black vote vs. Warren: 4%
Trump share of the black vote vs. M. Obama: 3%

Booker and Harris, despite being black themselves, don’t as of yet do any better than any other potential Dem. nominee at minimizing Trump’s share of the black vote.

And finally, the age crosstabs here seem a bit loopy.  Trump’s best age cohort vs. Biden, Booker, and Harris is voters under age 30.  I guess Gen Z has gone alt-right after all.    Best age cohort for all the Dems is voters between age 30 and 45.  That’s the reverse of PPP’s last poll, which had Trump doing well among those aged 30-45.

[Mr. Morden]

You just hate California because of your sad insecurities, but it's your life.

What if another Californian is nominated, like Garcetti?  Does Beet leave the party then?

[Mr. Morden]

California sucks because, in part, it gathers together the votes of millions of people who are needed elsewhere. But that has nothing to do with my dislike of Harris.

What is the source of your dislike of Harris?  I might be misremembering, but I thought you just didn't like her on electability grounds?  That you didn't think she'd do well in the general election, and so that's why you don't want her to be nominated?  But if you're talking about leaving the party if she's nominated, then I guess it must be something more?

Also, it continues to seem weird to me that you criticize California's concentration of Democratic voters while sporting a DC avatar. 

[Mr. Morden]

Warren sucks, too.

You posted this two weeks ago, in a thread titled "Warren vs. Merkley":

Two great choices. May we be lucky enough for it to come down to these two.

[Mr. Morden]

She's not very electable, but moreso, she's the type of overhyped candidate America loves. Although maybe that makes her more electable, but I doubt it... probably just enough to clear the primary.

But why would you leave a political party for electability reasons?  I understand not backing her in the primary for electability reasons.  But you said you'd leave the party if she's nominated.  So you're saying "I agree with this political party on the issues, and I agree with its presidential nominee on the issues, but I'm nonetheless going to leave the party because I don't think she's good enough at convincing *other* voters to back her"?  That doesn't make any sense to me.  Why not just support the party that you agree with on the issues?