$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[junior chįmp]

Daines is a no.

Probably doing it so he can vote Yes later but tell voters when he runs for re election: "but I tried!"

[mvd10]

The no's are rather surprising people. Daines and Johnson aren't the usual suspects (though Johnson might be understandable if you look at how the RNC abandoned him in 2016).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Daines is a no.

Do you have a source for this?

FOX Business.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-27/senate-plans-tax-vote-amid-trump-sales-pitch-tax-debate-update

Also:

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur
Sen. James Lankford says he's concerned the tax cuts won't yield the promised growth and wants a "backstop" built in if revenues plunge.

Very interesting: Lankford floats a trigger in which tax rates could rise if revenues crash. He declines to say if he'd support bill as written, describing it as "in flux."

Biggest hurdle for tax bill now is a few Senate GOP deficit hawks—Corker, Flake, Lankford. If they're placated it probably becomes unstoppable.

TOOMEY says on @BloombergTV he opposes Lankford's debt shield trigger, saying it "could have a self-fulfilling effect."

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/935239072213237761

Toomey's right.  Revenues would crash if the economy crashed, and trying to reduce the deficit under those conditions would likely make things worse (see: 1937).

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Update: McConnell can count on just 41 votes for tax reform. Moran moves from Safe Support to Lean Support, Daines moves from Safe Support all the way to Lean Opposed, Lankford moves from Lean Support to Toss-Up. However, Paul has apparently rejected his previous stance against the Framework and is now a likely vote for the bill.
----

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: The 45 Dem Senators who signed the tax reform demand letter

Likely Opposed:
Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp - they didn't sign the letter and have said they have an open mind regarding the legislation, but they are strong supporters of ObamaCare and I really don't think they'd vote to overturn the mandate - however, I can't rule out the silm possibility that if Republicans have 50 votes without them, one of them would vote yes anyway because "My vote wouldn't change the outcome and I want to show bipartisanship so I can get re-elected"

Lean Opposed:
Corker - Deficit hawk - but will he actually have a spine? We'll see.

Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%.

Daines - Bloomberg and Fox Business have stated that a Daines staff member says he is a no, while CNN and the Washington Post have stated that Daines has raised concerns about certain corporate provisions in the bill without explicitly stating he has threatened to vote no. The guy is generally a backbencher and is thus probably not completely out of reach for McConnell, but it appears his opposition is serious.

Toss-Up:
Lankford - He's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant.  He's also called for a trigger provision that would raise tax rates in times of insufficent economic growth, and has explicitly refused to endorse the bill as written, although he has yet to explicitly oppose the bill and is generally a reliable vote for leadership.

Lean Support:
Johnson - Said he can't support it right now, but he also said he wants to get to Yes. Odds are he'll find a way to vote yes eventually.

Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Murkowski - Has come out in support of mandate repeal, and she usually supports cutting Taxes. But she was a thorn in the side of Senate R's during the ObamaCare repeal debate, says she has come to no final decision on the plan, and is still promoting Alexander-Murray heavily.

Moran - Sources from Politico to the Washington Post to CNN have stated that Moran has concerns about the bill's repeal of the individual mandate, and he was a no vote on certain versions of health care reform. But he has a record of generally being a reliable vote for leadership, is a solid conservative, and voted for Skinny Repeal. As such, he will likelier than not be able to be whipped into submission.

Likely Support:
McCain - Voted against Skinny Repeal and opposed Graham-Cassidy, but he is a strong supporter of the tax cut portions of this bill, and his opposition to repeal was based more on the process of passage rather than the substance of the bill. I doubt mandate repeal alone would be a dealbreaker to him. But it's not impossible.

Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Paul - Despite his previous stance against the framework, Paul "supports the bill as it stands right now", as reported by Bloomberg News. Still keep an eye on him, as the bill may be amended on the senate floor and it's not impossible that it could be amended in such a way that it changes his stance.

Safe Support: Other 41 GOP Senators


Overall: 51 AGAINST, 49 SUPPORT

[The Other Castro]

Scott Bauer‏ @sbauerAP
@SenRonJohnson says he's still a no on the Republican tax bill, and will vote against it in committee tomorrow, but he remains optimistic that fixes will be made to get him to support it

Seung Min Kim‏ @seungminkim
Seung Min Kim Retweeted Scott Bauer
This would tank the bill in committee, since GOP only has one-seat majority on Budget.

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/935257855304830976

[Brittain33]

Scott Bauer‏ @sbauerAP
@SenRonJohnson says he's still a no on the Republican tax bill, and will vote against it in committee tomorrow, but he remains optimistic that fixes will be made to get him to support it

Seung Min Kim‏ @seungminkim
Seung Min Kim Retweeted Scott Bauer
This would tank the bill in committee, since GOP only has one-seat majority on Budget.

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/935257855304830976

I wonder of RoJo realized that before he made his statement. I bet "no."

[MasterJedi]

Scott Bauer‏ @sbauerAP
@SenRonJohnson says he's still a no on the Republican tax bill, and will vote against it in committee tomorrow, but he remains optimistic that fixes will be made to get him to support it

Seung Min Kim‏ @seungminkim
Seung Min Kim Retweeted Scott Bauer
This would tank the bill in committee, since GOP only has one-seat majority on Budget.

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/935257855304830976

I wonder of RoJo realized that before he made his statement. I bet "no."

Maybe he's actually mad they're running a lot of ads against him on TV in the state. But he has no spine, so he'll likely still vote for it.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, Johnson stays in my support column until he actually shows he has guts.

[GlobeSoc]

It would be hilarious for this bill to fail in committee

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It would be hilarious for this bill to fail in committee

*fingers crossed*

[Antonio the Sixth]

The question is, why in the world are most ads on air right now in support of this piece of garbage? Why aren't Democrats and progressive groups running their own ads against it?

[Brittain33]

It would be hilarious for this bill to fail in committee

*fingers crossed*

C'mon, Corker! Cork it!

[junior chįmp]

Is the vote on this fails....does it just go away till 2018?

[Tartarus Sauce]

Is the vote on this fails....does it just go away till 2018?

Pretty much, December is jam packed and they won't have any time to restart from scratch with so many other big ticket items on the plate, unless they're willing commit seppuku on the national stage and shove it into the government funding negotiations.

And if it gets pushed into 2018, it's just not getting done at all.

[junior chįmp]

Is the vote on this fails....does it just go away till 2018?

Pretty much, December is jam packed and they won't have any time to restart from scratch with so many other big ticket items on the plate, unless they're willing commit seppuku on the national stage and shove it into the government funding negotiations.

And if it gets pushed into 2018, it's just not getting done at all.

Uff....come on. Tax vote failing, Flynn flipping, Mueller investigating=best Christmas ever

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Is the vote on this fails....does it just go away till 2018?

Pretty much, December is jam packed and they won't have any time to restart from scratch with so many other big ticket items on the plate, unless they're willing commit seppuku on the national stage and shove it into the government funding negotiations.

And if it gets pushed into 2018, it's just not getting done at all.

Uff....come on. Tax vote failing, Flynn flipping, Mueller investigating=best Christmas ever

I look forward to getting drunk on eggnog while watching the GOP tax plan fail and watching Muellergeddon happen.

[junior chįmp]

Is the vote on this fails....does it just go away till 2018?

Pretty much, December is jam packed and they won't have any time to restart from scratch with so many other big ticket items on the plate, unless they're willing commit seppuku on the national stage and shove it into the government funding negotiations.

And if it gets pushed into 2018, it's just not getting done at all.

Uff....come on. Tax vote failing, Flynn flipping, Mueller investigating=best Christmas ever

I look forward to getting drunk on eggnog while watching the GOP tax plan fail and watching Muellergeddon happen.

The Muellerman's coming....bye bye Donnie!

The Muellerman - The President Show

[darklordoftech]

Tax vote failing, Flynn flipping, Mueller investigating=best Christmas ever

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Even though there are so many Senators leaning no on this I still can't believe that they won't pass something. Otherwise it would be apocalyptic for the GOP in 2018.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

While you can never be sure that they won't pass the bill, this does look a lot like Health Care: The number of guaranteed Yes Votes in the low 40s, Two Senators that look very tough to get (Collins and Murkowski for Health Care, Collins and Daines for this), and a host of wildcards that McConnell has to sweep. In Health Care, McConnell tried very hard and wrote multiple drafts, but couldn't sweep the wildcards. It's hard to see why this will be any different.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wulfric, remember that Mccain voted against the Bush tax cuts because they would raise the national debt too much and were too much of a handout to wealthy Americans. And then a few years later, when the national debt rose, he said "I was right".

I don't think Mccain is as likely to support this as you say he is. I would imagine he is more likely to vote against it than most of the GOP'ers who have recently come out against it.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

95% of what I've heard about McCain suggests they believe they have his vote. The 5% is a thing I heard on CNN today, something about Republicans hoping they have 50 votes without his vote so that if he goes over to No at the last minute, it won't matter. Maybe that means something, or maybe they're just trying to not be too optimistic about him, but in any case, that's the only "negative" thing I've heard about McCain's stance.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Even though there are so many Senators leaning no on this I still can't believe that they won't pass something. Otherwise it would be apocalyptic for the GOP in 2018.

Well it will be REALLY apocalyptic if they do vote for this trash, considering it's polling at 25-52 in quinnipiac and 19-54 in Harvard-Harris. Hence why I don't care that much what they do. They've already lost the PR battle.

I'm not even sure this bill would poll above water in even West Virginia. Hell, it's telling that the Democrat in the competitive Alabama Senate race feels zero pressure to support it.

Base turnout and corporate donations are more important in the midterms than passing an unpopular bill. If they don't have ANYTHING to tell the GOP base that they've accomplished Republicans will just not bother to vote. There will also be primary challenges funded by angry donors.

[The Mikado]

Quite possible Johnson votes no in committee tomorrow (Not that Johnson wants to kill the bill, but he would be willing to hold it hostage until they give him the tax breaks for sole proprietorships that he and his donors want). Johnson voting no would delay the process, not kill it...they'd just try again when they had a bill that met his concerns.

There's very little consequence for Johnson in voting no tomorrow: it will make McConnell mad and slow down the process, but the bill will still be alive and they could try again in a few days. Meanwhile, he almost certainly gets what he wants out of the new negotiations.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Quite possible Johnson votes no in committee tomorrow (Not that Johnson wants to kill the bill, but he would be willing to hold it hostage until they give him the tax breaks for sole proprietorships that he and his donors want). Johnson voting no would delay the process, not kill it...they'd just try again when they had a bill that met his concerns.

There's very little consequence for Johnson in voting no tomorrow: it will make McConnell mad and slow down the process, but the bill will still be alive and they could try again in a few days. Meanwhile, he almost certainly gets what he wants out of the new negotiations.

Obviously these Republicans saying they'd vote no are just using it as leverage to get something they want out of the bill and will vote yes in the end.