$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[Matty]

Quite possible Johnson votes no in committee tomorrow (Not that Johnson wants to kill the bill, but he would be willing to hold it hostage until they give him the tax breaks for sole proprietorships that he and his donors want). Johnson voting no would delay the process, not kill it...they'd just try again when they had a bill that met his concerns.

There's very little consequence for Johnson in voting no tomorrow: it will make McConnell mad and slow down the process, but the bill will still be alive and they could try again in a few days. Meanwhile, he almost certainly gets what he wants out of the new negotiations.

Obviously these Republicans saying they'd vote no are just using it as leverage to get something they want out of the bill and will vote yes in the end.

Yep, this isn't some new tactic either. It's not uncommon for senators to do this during sausage making.  It makes for good headlines back home when you are seen as playing a direct and active role in "improving" a bill.

[Person Man]

Even though there are so many Senators leaning no on this I still can't believe that they won't pass something. Otherwise it would be apocalyptic for the GOP in 2018.

Well it will be REALLY apocalyptic if they do vote for this trash, considering it's polling at 25-52 in quinnipiac and 19-54 in Harvard-Harris. Hence why I don't care that much what they do. They've already lost the PR battle.

I'm not even sure this bill would poll above water in even West Virginia. Hell, it's telling that the Democrat in the competitive Alabama Senate race feels zero pressure to support it.

Base turnout and corporate donations are more important in the midterms than passing an unpopular bill. If they don't have ANYTHING to tell the GOP base that they've accomplished Republicans will just not bother to vote. There will also be primary challenges funded by angry donors.

How did just passing the ACA work for Obama?

[Brittain33]

While you can never be sure that they won't pass the bill, this does look a lot like Health Care: The number of guaranteed Yes Votes in the low 40s, Two Senators that look very tough to get (Collins and Murkowski for Health Care, Collins and Daines for this), and a host of wildcards that McConnell has to sweep. In Health Care, McConnell tried very hard and wrote multiple drafts, but couldn't sweep the wildcards. It's hard to see why this will be any different.

This time, we don't have all the Republican governors from Medicaid Expansion states screaming at their Republican senators to vote no. There's no voice senators respect saying "you're really going to break things if you pass it." And the donors are that much more insistent, and they've already failed on health care. Something will pass the Senate.

[The Mikado]

Quite possible Johnson votes no in committee tomorrow (Not that Johnson wants to kill the bill, but he would be willing to hold it hostage until they give him the tax breaks for sole proprietorships that he and his donors want). Johnson voting no would delay the process, not kill it...they'd just try again when they had a bill that met his concerns.

There's very little consequence for Johnson in voting no tomorrow: it will make McConnell mad and slow down the process, but the bill will still be alive and they could try again in a few days. Meanwhile, he almost certainly gets what he wants out of the new negotiations.

Obviously these Republicans saying they'd vote no are just using it as leverage to get something they want out of the bill and will vote yes in the end.

You might notice I'm not disagreeing. I'm saying tbat if Hatch doesn't make those pass-through alterations, Johnson might vote no in committee on this version to hold the bill up until it has the pass-through breaks he wants.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Senate Budget Committee meets at 2:30 ET today to vote on the bill. Will be televised on C-SPAN 3.

[Badger]

How tax reform will affect me depends on the future phases of my life.

Currently - Net loss of 2-3K under House plan, gain of 4-5K under Senate plan. 

In 2-3 years when I will go into semi-retirement by working part time and DW completely retires - gain of 4-5K under House Plan and gain of 4-5K under Senate plan mostly because AMT goes away.

In 5-6 years when I will completely retire but live in Scarsdale until my kid goes to college - loss of 6K-7K under House plan and loss of 7K-8K under Senate plan mostly due to loss of deductions of real estate taxes will shift what rates my qualified dividends will be taxed at.

In 11-12 years when I will move to FL in retirement - gain of 4-5K under House Plan and gain of 4-5K under Senate plan mostly because of the larger standard deduction and lower rates.

Overall this plan is a plus for us and it goes through most likely I will work part time a bit longer I had planned to make up for some of the losses I will incur under this plan when I go into full retirement but still live in high tax Scarsdale.

Tell me, do you ever consider anything other than your own narrow self-interest in such matters or do you think worrying about the effects upon society, the economy, and the long-term fiscal health of the government is for suckers?

Ernest, have you read his posting history? The answer is an obvious no. Remember, as I alluded to above, this guy is so flipping an amoral worshiper of Mammon.

Remember, as I alluded to above, I once after a set of particularly nastily insensitive to anyone who wasn't his wealthy New York social set posts, I poked at him implying he would probably rarely invest in a Southeast Asian child brothel if it proved profitable when he can avoid any social or legal repercussions from it. To my, and even most people's on this forum amazement, he replied straight-faced stating that, yes, he would indeed do so if the legal and economic realities we're favorable to him. He went into a lengthy detailed economic analysis about how child sex slavery trade might create additional funds for he and his family if the legal niceties could be observed in a third world country.

It can't be emphasized enough that his post was serious. I think it is Manifest he is never shown and iota of ability or willingness to troll, or even for that matter display any human emotion Beyond greed, let alone humor. Secondly his post was 110% consistent with the ideology, mannerisms, and Analysis of his entire posting history. To reiterate, he quite seriously and without an ounce of morel analysis or reservation, discussed how he would indeed engage in an underaged brothel, or let's just call it what it is - - child sex slavery in the third world dash dash for-profit.

Which, incidentally is one of the reasons I consider j a i c h i n d one of the most horrible and deplorable posters on the form. He is not as outspoken or persistent in his viciousness, but he Bears the heart and soul of an adding machine with not an ounce of human morals Beyond gain. He's the type of person that thinks just because he loves his immediate family and closest friends that that doesn't show he still has the overall empathy level of a sociopath.

Folks like English Pete and craisin are like the screaming Hitler's and Goebbels who whip up the crowds with their braying evil. J a i c h i a n d is like the doctor Mengele who gladly commits equally horrible Deeds under the Specter of dispassionate scientific reason and Analysis. But they're all obviously equivalently awful bastards, of course.

[The Mikado]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/business/wp/2017/11/27/trump-could-personally-benefit-from-last-minute-change-to-senate-tax-bill/

Looks like Johnson's getting what he wants. This is what I meant earlier: Johnson has a lot of leverage and has no incentive to vote yes until given the pass-through breaks, which it looks like the Senate is going to give him.

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[junior chįmp]

Yawn at all these cucks feighing a no vote

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[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bill passes committee along party lines, 12-11. Johnson is a cuck. Next step is Senate Floor Action.

[Matty]

Trump told senators he supports Murray-Alexander ACA stability bill

[Doimper]

Trump told senators he supports Murray-Alexander ACA stability bill

L
O
L

[The Other Castro]

Collins sounds like a yes.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If there’s a God, a lot of these guys are gonna burn in Hell for voting for sh!t like this despite knowing full well how many innocent lives they’re going ruin. 

[Yank2133]

Trump told senators he supports Murray-Alexander ACA stability bill

lol.

It won't pass if the mandate is still included. Republicans are going to own the fallout from all of this.

But hey, at least our donors are happy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nobody is really surprised by this, are they?

[Yank2133]

I love how the Republican logic on this devilish bill is "we need to pass this horribly unpopular bill now or we'll get destroyed in the midterms!"

They are either delusional or have resigned themselves to their fate in 2018 (AKA getting blown the **** out.)

[The Mikado]

Are we expecting floor vote on passage tomorrow or Thursday?

[Virginiá]

I love how the Republican logic on this devilish bill is "we need to pass this horribly unpopular bill now or we'll get destroyed in the midterms!"

They are either delusional or have resigned themselves to their fate in 2018 (AKA getting blown the **** out.)

At first glance, you would expect politicians to realize that passing an unpopular bill that is extremely easy for their political opponents to attack them on would lead to ruin in the midterms. However, I think we're looking at this wrong. Republicans know this bill isn't popular, and at least some of them probably know this bill won't lead to magic growth like they keep saying over and over again. Rather, what they all know is that this is a bill their donors want. This bill will pay back those conservative donors for all the money they have donated to Republican campaigns and thensome, and in order to keep getting donations, Congressional Republicans know they need to pass this.

So they know it's unpopular and likely to hurt them, but they think raking in enough campaign donations can stave off losing control of either chamber. It's very silly if you ask me. They should ask Democrats if money saved them in a bad political environment.

[BudgieForce]

Would Alexander-Murray be put directly into the Tax Bill or...?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Are we expecting floor vote on passage tomorrow or Thursday?

Floor Proceedings will begin later today or tomorrow, but since the bill will be subject to Amendment on the floor, the earliest a final vote could happen is Late Thursday, and it could easily be dragged into Friday.

[Person Man]

I love how the Republican logic on this devilish bill is "we need to pass this horribly unpopular bill now or we'll get destroyed in the midterms!"

They are either delusional or have resigned themselves to their fate in 2018 (AKA getting blown the **** out.)

At first glance, you would expect politicians to realize that passing an unpopular bill that is extremely easy for their political opponents to attack them on would lead to ruin in the midterms. However, I think we're looking at this wrong. Republicans know this bill isn't popular, and at least some of them probably know this bill won't lead to magic growth like they keep saying over and over again. Rather, what they all know is that this is a bill their donors want. This bill will pay back those conservative donors for all the money they have donated to Republican campaigns and thensome, and in order to keep getting donations, Congressional Republicans know they need to pass this.

So they know it's unpopular and likely to hurt them, but they think raking in enough campaign donations can stave off losing control of either chamber. It's very silly if you ask me. They should ask Democrats if money saved them in a bad political environment.

Haha as if donors were actually not going to fund Republicans regardless. They should also take note of how Democrats raised tons of money in 2010 and look how that went.

Will enough core voters be getting free money next year ?

[KingSweden]

I love how the Republican logic on this devilish bill is "we need to pass this horribly unpopular bill now or we'll get destroyed in the midterms!"

They are either delusional or have resigned themselves to their fate in 2018 (AKA getting blown the **** out.)

At first glance, you would expect politicians to realize that passing an unpopular bill that is extremely easy for their political opponents to attack them on would lead to ruin in the midterms. However, I think we're looking at this wrong. Republicans know this bill isn't popular, and at least some of them probably know this bill won't lead to magic growth like they keep saying over and over again. Rather, what they all know is that this is a bill their donors want. This bill will pay back those conservative donors for all the money they have donated to Republican campaigns and thensome, and in order to keep getting donations, Congressional Republicans know they need to pass this.

So they know it's unpopular and likely to hurt them, but they think raking in enough campaign donations can stave off losing control of either chamber. It's very silly if you ask me. They should ask Democrats if money saved them in a bad political environment.

Haha as if donors were actually not going to fund Republicans regardless. They should also take note of how Democrats raised tons of money in 2010 and look how that went.

Yeah this is suspiciously similar to the ACA debate.

And Obama was wayyyy more popular than Trump then.

[mvd10]

I love how the Republican logic on this devilish bill is "we need to pass this horribly unpopular bill now or we'll get destroyed in the midterms!"

They are either delusional or have resigned themselves to their fate in 2018 (AKA getting blown the **** out.)

At first glance, you would expect politicians to realize that passing an unpopular bill that is extremely easy for their political opponents to attack them on would lead to ruin in the midterms. However, I think we're looking at this wrong. Republicans know this bill isn't popular, and at least some of them probably know this bill won't lead to magic growth like they keep saying over and over again. Rather, what they all know is that this is a bill their donors want. This bill will pay back those conservative donors for all the money they have donated to Republican campaigns and thensome, and in order to keep getting donations, Congressional Republicans know they need to pass this.

So they know it's unpopular and likely to hurt them, but they think raking in enough campaign donations can stave off losing control of either chamber. It's very silly if you ask me. They should ask Democrats if money saved them in a bad political environment.

Haha as if donors were actually not going to fund Republicans regardless. They should also take note of how Democrats raised tons of money in 2010 and look how that went.

Most of them probably believe what they're saying. There is a reason they got into politics in the first place. And this bill does have some redeeming qualities (20% corporate tax rate + territorial taxation).

[IceSpear]

Did anyone seriously believe that Ron Johnson of all people would vote no? lol

[Santander]

Did anyone seriously believe that Ron Johnson of all people would vote no? lol