$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[gottsu]

Update:

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: The 45 Dem Senators who signed the tax reform demand letter

Likely Opposed:
Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp - they didn't sign the letter and have said they have an open mind regarding the legislation, but they are strong supporters of ObamaCare and I really don't think they'd vote to overturn the mandate - however, I can't rule out the silm possibility that if Republicans have 50 votes without them, one of them would vote yes anyway because "My vote wouldn't change the outcome and I want to show bipartisanship so I can get re-elected"

Paul - he voted against the framework, and his preferred amendments were rejected overwhelmingly. There's a small chance he eventually succumbs to party loyalty, as he did vote for Skinny Repeal. But it's highly unlikely.

Lean Opposed:
Corker - deficit hawk - but will he actually have a spine? We'll see.

Murkowski - Has made her support conditional on passage of Alexander- Murray.

Toss-Up:
Collins- Strong opponent of the ObamaCare repeal bills - but is mandate repeal alone a dealbreaker for her? We'll see. She does generally support cutting taxes.

Lean Support:
Lankford - he's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant. He's a reliable vote for leadership, so the odds are he gets to yes, but we'll see.

Johnson - Said he can't support it right now, but he also said he wants to get to Yes. Odds are he'll find a way to vote yes eventually.

Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Likely Support:
McCain - Voted against Skinny Repeal and opposed Graham-Cassidy, but he is a strong supporter of the tax cut portions of this bill, and his opposition to repeal was based more on the process of passage rather than the substance of the bill. I doubt mandate repeal alone would be a dealbreaker to him. But it's not impossible.

Safe Support: Other 44 GOP Senators


Overall: 51 AGAINST, 48 SUPPORT, 1 TOSS-UP

Nice to see. GOP-ers are standing in a very, very tight corner when it comes to Tax&ACA Reform Bill, and if it doesn't passes on Senate, some of them might begin to start packing from Hill, because they are gonna be smashed so badly on midterms.

Both parties have less or big troubles recently, but Democrats remain as being teflon-coated. Just look what happened to Bob Menendez (judge ordered retrial in his corruption case), look what happens to Franken (if he resigns or not, it's not a big deal, MN has a D governor, and look at a slightly different public approach to his charges), Clinton's uranium deal etc.

[gottsu]

If I am right, this is still a 51-49 match. Personally I wonder why Murkowski who voted nay in July she reversed her stance against ACA (individual mandate) or maybe what stuff from DC persuaded her to do this.

[gottsu]

I'm surprised the media hasn't reported more on where net senators stand on this bill

There could be a floor vote next week and nobody knows what Corker, flake, etc are thinking

Is it lazy reporting or are these people just faking being "opposed" to it and then will fall in line?

That's what I predict will happen.

Why do you think like that?

[gottsu]

So this article mentions Todd Young as a potential defector. Strange.: https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/24/republicans-tax-reform-plan-deficit-cost-257604

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To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: The 45 Dem Senators who signed the tax reform demand letter

Likely Opposed:
Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp - they didn't sign the letter and have said they have an open mind regarding the legislation, but they are strong supporters of ObamaCare and I really don't think they'd vote to overturn the mandate - however, I can't rule out the silm possibility that if Republicans have 50 votes without them, one of them would vote yes anyway because "My vote wouldn't change the outcome and I want to show bipartisanship so I can get re-elected"

Lean Opposed:
Corker - deficit hawk - but will he actually have a spine? We'll see.

Paul - he voted against the framework, and his preferred amendments were rejected overwhelmingly. Politico has said in at least one article that he appears to be open to the final legislation, the addition of ObamaCare appears to  have been a ploy to get his vote, and party pressure is a powerful tool. But I still expect him to vote No because he voted No on the framework.

Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%.

Lean Support:
Lankford - he's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant. He's a reliable vote for leadership, so the odds are he gets to yes, but we'll see.

Johnson - Said he can't support it right now, but he also said he wants to get to Yes. Odds are he'll find a way to vote yes eventually.

Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Murkowski - Has come out in support of mandate repeal, and she usually supports cutting Taxes. But she was a thorn in the side of Senate R's during the ObamaCare repeal debate, says she has come to no final decision on the plan, and is still promoting Alexander-Murray heavily.

Likely Support:
McCain - Voted against Skinny Repeal and opposed Graham-Cassidy, but he is a strong supporter of the tax cut portions of this bill, and his opposition to repeal was based more on the process of passage rather than the substance of the bill. I doubt mandate repeal alone would be a dealbreaker to him. But it's not impossible.

Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Safe Support: Other 43 GOP Senators


Overall: 51 AGAINST, 49 SUPPORT

Splendid job!

I posted your analysis on a FB group devoted to US politics (translated to Polish, as this is Polish group) which I am a mod here, and gave you credits.

Screen: https://imgur.com/a/4XdUS