$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[Brittain33]

Someone compared the Republicans passing a tax cut to a struggling couple having a baby to "save the marriage."

[Brittain33]

If it passes the House, it will pass by 2 votes with lots of people "released" to vote no.

[Brittain33]

Passes 227-205. 13 R's against, 2 Dems Abstaining.

Wow, I was wrong... thought it would be closer.

[Brittain33]

Is Paul even able to vote in Washington? Would he fly in if he were required and wanted to vote yes?

[Brittain33]

Johnson will fold. No way is he a deciding vote to kill this bill in the end.

[Brittain33]

Scott Bauer‏ @sbauerAP
@SenRonJohnson says he's still a no on the Republican tax bill, and will vote against it in committee tomorrow, but he remains optimistic that fixes will be made to get him to support it

Seung Min Kim‏ @seungminkim
Seung Min Kim Retweeted Scott Bauer
This would tank the bill in committee, since GOP only has one-seat majority on Budget.

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/935257855304830976

I wonder of RoJo realized that before he made his statement. I bet "no."

[Brittain33]

It would be hilarious for this bill to fail in committee

*fingers crossed*

C'mon, Corker! Cork it!

[Brittain33]

While you can never be sure that they won't pass the bill, this does look a lot like Health Care: The number of guaranteed Yes Votes in the low 40s, Two Senators that look very tough to get (Collins and Murkowski for Health Care, Collins and Daines for this), and a host of wildcards that McConnell has to sweep. In Health Care, McConnell tried very hard and wrote multiple drafts, but couldn't sweep the wildcards. It's hard to see why this will be any different.

This time, we don't have all the Republican governors from Medicaid Expansion states screaming at their Republican senators to vote no. There's no voice senators respect saying "you're really going to break things if you pass it." And the donors are that much more insistent, and they've already failed on health care. Something will pass the Senate.

[Brittain33]

Why did you only choose one of the charts to share? The other charts contain all the people who are going to pay more because they don't take only the standard deduction.

Nyt study: green dots represent families who will see net gain in income

[Brittain33]

I'm being factual

I dislike the deficit side of the bill but to claim it raises taxes on the middle class is insanity

You literally posted the one chart out of, like, five that didn't show people paying more, when the other charts were FULL of red dots for representative households paying more.

[Brittain33]

I'm really dumb about stuff like this, but I'm worried, depressed over it, and need some help understanding it. If/when this passes, will it be for forever or can it be changed/overruled (for lack of a better word at the moment) if Dems win President and majorities in both Chambers in 2020? If it actually starts doing all the bad things opponents are saying it will, can we have another vote on tax reform and redo/undo this in another Congress? Tax stuff like this goes over my head and I'm totally ignorant about it.

Well, at some stage in the future the Dems will take over the Presidency and have a majority in the House and Senate.  I think they will, like the GOP, keep parts of this existing tax plan (assuming some variation does pass and get signed into law) but change others in keeping with the Dem's priorities. So some of this plan will survive and others will be changed.

Our corporate tax was out of whack with the rest of world, and a high rate with lots of deductions is inefficient. Moving to a territorial system and a lower rate is defensible, if they broadened the base. Unfortunately I think it will take a future administration to correct for the big giveaway built into this reform.

[Brittain33]

Castro, dragon, yank, gass......what are the chances this thing fails in conference committee

If it does... what are the chances the House doesn't just pass the Senate bill?

[Brittain33]

It's hard to talk about whether this bill could spur growth when currently we have close to full employment in the economy and our government is driving out undocumented immigrants and aiming to lower legal immigration, and where the cost of borrowing capital is close to zero. Our economy doesn't need growth to be spurred, and certainly not by favoring capital further.

[Brittain33]

There are going to be any number of glitches like this. This is why you don't write massive bills like this.

[Brittain33]

Collins did say she wasn't a yes on the final bill. Collins + Corker + = Failed bill.

= House passing the Senate bill

[Brittain33]

Collins did say she wasn't a yes on the final bill. Collins + Corker + = Failed bill.

= House passing the Senate bill

I'd argue that the freedom caucus could derail that notion.

Actually, it's the gaffe on corporate AMT that Wulfric mentioned a few days ago. That's what makes that mistake so significant: The House WILL NOT pass the Senate bill.

You may be right, but since the House was willing to pass skinny repeal, I think they'd be more afraid of doing nothing than of passing the Senate bill which accidentally repeals the R&D credit. I don't think there are any bright red lines there.

[Brittain33]

'Holy crap': Experts find tax plan riddled with glitches

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/06/tax-plan-glitches-mistakes-republicans-208049

Completely predictable. Anyone who works in technology could have predicted this.

[Brittain33]

The AMT goof may be nearly $300bn.

https://slate.com/business/2017/12/senate-republicans-may-have-made-a-usd260-billion-mistake-in-their-tax-bill.html

[Brittain33]

Current GOP discussions on SALT deductions are a compromise where instead of a cap of 10K  on real estate taxes it would be a 10K cap on all SALT deductions and the taxpayer can pick between state and local income taxes OR real estate taxes.  Does not seem to me that this will make much of a difference for married taxpayers.  I guess it would for single taxpayers in some cases.

My partner and I pay less than $5000 in “personal" property taxes, partly because half our property taxes are a business expense, but more than $10,000 in state income tax.

[Brittain33]

Washington has no income tax, right?