$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[The Mikado]

Between mandate repeal and the end of SALT, this Senate bill would be the end of the GOP in CA, NJ, and NY. They're going to lose so many House seats.

[The Mikado]

Mondale is repeating his predictions before the Healthcare bill word for word. I take this as a very good sign.

[The Mikado]

Mondale is repeating his predictions before the Healthcare bill word for word. I take this as a very good sign.

I wish I could, but if Murkowski actually is a yes there's really no way it fails.

Oh, it'll probably pass the Senate. Doesn't mean that it is going to become law. The House and Senate versions are quite different and there's a pretty good chance this thing dies in conference because of the mandate and SALT.

[The Mikado]

Quite possible Johnson votes no in committee tomorrow (Not that Johnson wants to kill the bill, but he would be willing to hold it hostage until they give him the tax breaks for sole proprietorships that he and his donors want). Johnson voting no would delay the process, not kill it...they'd just try again when they had a bill that met his concerns.

There's very little consequence for Johnson in voting no tomorrow: it will make McConnell mad and slow down the process, but the bill will still be alive and they could try again in a few days. Meanwhile, he almost certainly gets what he wants out of the new negotiations.

[The Mikado]

Quite possible Johnson votes no in committee tomorrow (Not that Johnson wants to kill the bill, but he would be willing to hold it hostage until they give him the tax breaks for sole proprietorships that he and his donors want). Johnson voting no would delay the process, not kill it...they'd just try again when they had a bill that met his concerns.

There's very little consequence for Johnson in voting no tomorrow: it will make McConnell mad and slow down the process, but the bill will still be alive and they could try again in a few days. Meanwhile, he almost certainly gets what he wants out of the new negotiations.

Obviously these Republicans saying they'd vote no are just using it as leverage to get something they want out of the bill and will vote yes in the end.

You might notice I'm not disagreeing. I'm saying tbat if Hatch doesn't make those pass-through alterations, Johnson might vote no in committee on this version to hold the bill up until it has the pass-through breaks he wants.

[The Mikado]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/business/wp/2017/11/27/trump-could-personally-benefit-from-last-minute-change-to-senate-tax-bill/

Looks like Johnson's getting what he wants. This is what I meant earlier: Johnson has a lot of leverage and has no incentive to vote yes until given the pass-through breaks, which it looks like the Senate is going to give him.

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[The Mikado]

Are we expecting floor vote on passage tomorrow or Thursday?

[The Mikado]

Please excuse my ignorance. What does it mean that the corporate tax cuts are "permanent"?
If the Ds control the trifecta in 2021 can't they just repeal them, through reconciliation or regular order?

They can, yes. "Permanent" just means that they don't expire on their own like the individual cuts do in 2027.

[The Mikado]

At this point, it's going to be 52-48 on straight party line vote. No Dems voting Aye, no Rs voting Nay.

[The Mikado]

Uh oh, collins refuses to say she will support final bill. Says she has to wait and see.

wow, is she changing her mind?

She's saying that because she wants to make sure the conference committee doesn't strip out the concessions the Senate bill made her.