$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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I'm not a political strategist, but it strikes me that maybe the GOP should try for something that's actually popular.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mr. Flake proposes an amendment, #1178 (To make the American tax system simpler and fairer). The amendment is adopted by a vote of 98-0.

Not Voting - 2
Cochran (R-MS)
Menendez (D-NJ)

Maybe they should also add one to ensure that everyone has decent and affordable health care, or some other platitude with zero details.  Good grief.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mr. Flake proposes an amendment, #1178 (To make the American tax system simpler and fairer). The amendment is adopted by a vote of 98-0.

Not Voting - 2
Cochran (R-MS)
Menendez (D-NJ)

Maybe they should also add one to ensure that everyone has decent and affordable health care, or some other platitude with zero details.  Good grief.

You do realize that most amendment proposals are for purpose of messaging rather than policy, right?

Yes, but this one just struck me as a ridiculous example.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mr. Paul proposes an amendment, #1296 (To modify reconciliation instructions to reduce the deficit). The amendment FAILS by a vote of 4-94.

Who were the other three yeses?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump is live now at a WH presser on this and announced that Broadcom will move its HQ back to the US from Singapore. The CEO is standing right behind him (albeit a bit fidgety).

The HQ on its wiki says they are cohqd in San Jose. I am assuming this move will be a single HQ. They are inc out of Singapore, maybe moving inc back to the US.

Yes, they're moving their legal incorporation to Delaware:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) opposes the tax bill in its current form, says it leaves too many small businesses out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It'll fail. I'm positive.

In the current form, yes.  But I suspect they'll manage to pass a modified bill.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Tax Policy Center analysis

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[GeorgiaModerate]

If everyone ridicules you for what you say, perhaps you should consider that what you are saying is ridiculous.

You two are the only ones who ridicule my every post, and I think what you have to say is stupid, LOL ... so nope, I don't think I will.

Actually we're not. You must've missed like four or five other people mocking the SUBURBAN REPUBLICAN meme last night

I hereby dub these Replurbicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

As promised, with the mandate repeal now being included, I withdraw my endorsement of the Senate Bill and urge all Senators to oppose it.

Just what the hell did you think was going to happen with a tax cut? They were going to try to do this anyways -- now they're just being more open with it.

I swear token moderates jizz over tax cuts without realizing... cutting taxes means you either have to cut from somewhere (health care), or you add a lot to the deficit.

This group is talented; they're trying for both.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NY GOP Fund-Raiser Quits Over Tax Bill

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

If I might interject something related to the actual topic of this thread, which is the tax cut bill...

Murkowski is a NO unless Alexander-Murray passes first:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Murkowski walks back her comments:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

The University of Chicago surveyed over 40 leading economists.  They found exactly one who agreed that the proposed tax changes will substantially grow the economy.

http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mondale is repeating his predictions before the Healthcare bill word for word. I take this as a very good sign.

I wish I could, but if Murkowski actually is a yes there's really no way it fails.

Oh, it'll probably pass the Senate. Doesn't mean that it is going to become law. The House and Senate versions are quite different and there's a pretty good chance this thing dies in conference because of the mandate and SALT.

I'm sure they'll pass something, although the final form is uncertain.  The Congressional GOP is desperate for a legislative accomplishment, and most Republicans will go along on the premise that any tax cut is better than no tax cut.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just to show what I am talking about.  If we take a household in SF that has AGI of 500K with some reasonable assumptions about real estate tax, mortgages, and charity.  The 2018 federal tax under current law, House plan, Senate plan with this household being Single vs Married are the following
               
              Current Law     House       Senate
Married     $124.5K      $121.8K      $117.5K
Single       $125.2K      $135.3K      $138.0K

If you are married you gain but gain more under the Senate Plan.  If you are single you lose and you lose more under the Senate plan.

So why should I support this?

Well, if you are married ....

...and have an AGI of $500K and live in San Francisco.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm surprised the media hasn't reported more on where net senators stand on this bill

There could be a floor vote next week and nobody knows what Corker, flake, etc are thinking

Is it lazy reporting or are these people just faking being "opposed" to it and then will fall in line?

That's what I predict will happen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm surprised the media hasn't reported more on where net senators stand on this bill

There could be a floor vote next week and nobody knows what Corker, flake, etc are thinking

Is it lazy reporting or are these people just faking being "opposed" to it and then will fall in line?

That's what I predict will happen.

Why do you think like that?

Because I think there is great pressure on Republicans to pass some kind, any kind, of tax cut.  In the end this should be enough to get some bill passed.  I'd love to be wrong about this, but decades of observing politics have given me a certain level of cynicism.

[GeorgiaModerate]

First Hurdle for Senate Tax Bill will be Committee Vote on Tuesday. Johnson and Corker are on the committee and if they vote no along with all Dems, bill fails in committee.

Let's not fool ourselves...Johnson will vote Yes.

Of course he will.  I'll further predict that he'll say he knows the bill isn't perfect, but he wants to move the process along, or something like that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Daines is a no.

Do you have a source for this?

FOX Business.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-27/senate-plans-tax-vote-amid-trump-sales-pitch-tax-debate-update

Also:

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur
Sen. James Lankford says he's concerned the tax cuts won't yield the promised growth and wants a "backstop" built in if revenues plunge.

Very interesting: Lankford floats a trigger in which tax rates could rise if revenues crash. He declines to say if he'd support bill as written, describing it as "in flux."

Biggest hurdle for tax bill now is a few Senate GOP deficit hawks—Corker, Flake, Lankford. If they're placated it probably becomes unstoppable.

TOOMEY says on @BloombergTV he opposes Lankford's debt shield trigger, saying it "could have a self-fulfilling effect."

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/935239072213237761

Toomey's right.  Revenues would crash if the economy crashed, and trying to reduce the deficit under those conditions would likely make things worse (see: 1937).