Doug Jones Internal: Moore +4

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moore 44
Jones 40


https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/SkrX5XmNM0cksl746YmeLblDzg8JjDt-UklEtLoLdN2R7wX8k-c2Y1BP_WOLIUKAK7_CKg_RYH4tinn4HDKvvh7gndJS5EJSt-NLmk7TtOU670zf9LX15Suns_jNzyrAisPI4nhLN7PYgoY4N5Ic-mruddc=s0-d-e1-ft#https://s.bsd.net/dougjones/main/page/-/Jones_Incredible-US-Senate-Poll-Bar-Graph_20170929.png

(I'm on Jones's email list, and this was sent to me)

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats really need to stay covert on this one like Reps did in the 2010 MA-SEN special.  They shouldn't even be releasing polls like this.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Democrats really need to stay covert on this one like Reps did in the 2010 MA-SEN special.  They shouldn't even be releasing polls like this.

Yes, what you want is a sleeper race like SC-5 was with Archie Parnell.

[GlobeSoc]

Democrats really need to stay covert on this one like Reps did in the 2010 MA-SEN special.  They shouldn't even be releasing polls like this.

The good news is that no one in the media will/is caring about this.

[Skye]

I don't buy this. It's Alabama. It would be a disaster for the GOP.

[Dr. Arch]

I don't buy this. It's Alabama. It would be a disaster for the GOP.

Obama is gone. It may be a regression/beginning of depolarization. That would be great.

[Canis]

I don't buy this. It's Alabama. It would be a disaster for the GOP.

People said this about Massachusetts in 2010 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts,_2010

[windjammer]

I don't buy this. It's Alabama. It would be a disaster for the GOP.

People said this about Massachusetts in 2010 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts,_2010

Except that MA is elastic, not Alabama.

[Mr.Phips]

I don't buy this. It's Alabama. It would be a disaster for the GOP.

People said this about Massachusetts in 2010 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts,_2010

Except that MA is elastic, not Alabama.

Not in federal races it isn't.  Maybe in state races it is.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Is there a more detailed analysis of this poll? It doesn't matter if Jones is at 40% if all the democrats have decided their vote and a lot of republicans haven't.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is the entire email:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[McGovernForPrez]

I don't buy this. It's Alabama. It would be a disaster for the GOP.

People said this about Massachusetts in 2010 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts,_2010

Except that MA is elastic, not Alabama.

MA is "elastic" as some would say, but not very much so at the federal level. Before Scott Brown, the last Republican Senator we sent to DC was in 1948. Even our popular Governor, Bill Weld, who won reelection with 70% of the vote, lost to John Kerry in 1996. Scott Brown won because turnout was in his favor, and he was running against a laughably bad opponent. He won by 5 points with less votes than Mitt Romney lost by 23 points with in 2012. Elasticity doesn't mean much in special elections.

[Pericles]

I think Moore will win but it'll be a little closers than people expect and a warning sign showing Republican weakness in 2018.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

I don't buy this. It's Alabama. It would be a disaster for the GOP.

People said this about Massachusetts in 2010 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts,_2010

Except that MA is elastic, not Alabama.

MA is "elastic" as some would say, but not very much so at the federal level. Before Scott Brown, the last Republican Senator we sent to DC was in 1948. Even our popular Governor, Bill Weld, who won reelection with 70% of the vote, lost to John Kerry in 1996. Scott Brown won because turnout was in his favor, and he was running against a laughably bad opponent. He won by 5 points with less votes than Mitt Romney lost by 23 points with in 2012. Elasticity doesn't mean much in special elections.

Ed Brooke was elected in 1972, the last Republican Senator to be elected from Massachusetts until Scott Brown. Even then, Brooke was defeated pretty soundly for reelection in 1978.

[AtorBoltox]

Unless Jones is ahead by more than 10 in the polls just before Election Day he's not winning. It's Alabama, all these 'undecided' voters will come home in the end

[Kamala]

Unless Jones is ahead by more than 10 in the polls just before Election Day he's not winning. It's Alabama, all these 'undecided' voters will come home in the end

This. Brown was leading Chokely in the weeks leading up to the election. Being down 4/5 isn't good enough for a win.

[SNJ1985]

I don't buy this. It's Alabama. It would be a disaster for the GOP.

Obama is gone. It may be a regression/beginning of depolarization. That would be great.

Hillary did worse than Obama in AL.

Polarization is here to stay.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I don't buy this. It's Alabama. It would be a disaster for the GOP.

People said this about Massachusetts in 2010 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts,_2010

Except that MA is elastic, not Alabama.

Not in federal races it isn't.  Maybe in state races it is.

Good thing senate races are state races

[NewYorkExpress]

I don't buy this. It's Alabama. It would be a disaster for the GOP.

Obama is gone. It may be a regression/beginning of depolarization. That would be great.

Hillary did worse than Obama in AL.

Polarization is here to stay.

That's partially because Hillary Clinton was the most hated First Lady by the right since at least 1992 (and even earlier if you lived in Arkansas). She would have done worse in many GOP heavy places naturally. The real test of polarization will be in 2020, especially if Democrats nominate a non-Biden White Male.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't buy this. It's Alabama. It would be a disaster for the GOP.

People said this about Massachusetts in 2010 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Massachusetts,_2010

Except that MA is elastic, not Alabama.

Not in federal races it isn't.  Maybe in state races it is.

Good thing senate races are state races

Actually, they're federal races, but thanks for playing

[DrScholl]

Roy Moore is the worst performing Republican statewide in the past four years, so him losing is not outside of the realm of possibility. He's definitely going to do worse in Jefferson and Montgomery, perhaps even in Madison and Mobile. With that said, he has plenty of rural areas to save him.

[Mr. Smith]

Kirk's internals had Duckworth barely ahead...

[TJ in Oregon]

Doug Jones isn't the right type of Dem to pull an upset in this one. They might have had a chance if they'd have nominated a moderate, but Jones is a pretty standard liberal.

Also, the usual qualms about convenient internal polls.

[DrScholl]

An independent poll showed similar numbers for the race. Jones is the sort of Democrat that would perform better in Moore's weakest areas around Birmingham and Montgomery, and maybe in Huntsville and Mobile.

[Adam Griffin]

Jones is probably down by 10-15, but that's still going to be a massive improvement over 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 and the last 7 Senate races in Alabama.