So Perot was a spoiler in 1996 this timeline? I can't think of any other way Graham wins the election while losing both moderates and independents.
Correct. Gramm won conservative votes Dole didn't.
So in this world, both parties are gonna claim Perot spoiled an election for them, with the GOP crying foul about 1992 and the Democrats crying spoiler about 1996, although due to the fact that Democrat Jerry Brown was Perot's running mate in this timeline and considering Clinton narrowly won both moderates and independents, the Democrats would actually have a case about Perot being a spoiler (at least more of one than the GOP would have about 1992).