Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017
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  Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017
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Author Topic: Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017  (Read 6409 times)
adma
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« Reply #75 on: October 17, 2017, 11:00:07 PM »

The pollsters who are the most confident and cocky are usually the one's who are the worst and end up having to eat crow after election day.

That is sooo true. Remember Forum Research when they confidently predicted that the Liberal would win Brandon-Souris by 30 points???

Or, for that matter, Lotuslander viz. the BC election.
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DL
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« Reply #76 on: October 17, 2017, 11:26:31 PM »

Lotuslander is not a pollster
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Lotuslander
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« Reply #77 on: October 18, 2017, 12:51:37 AM »

Haha. Sometimes akin to attending Yuk Yuk's Comedy Club herein. Cheesy

In any event, Mainstreet's numbers for Calgary's mayoral race and the subsequent opposite result thereto reminds me of Probe Research's numbers for the Winnipeg mayoral race back in 2014 with former NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis held as the front-runner:

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http://news.probe-research.com/2014/10/wasylycia-leis-still-leads-winnipeg.html

And, IMHO, Probe Research, an MB CATI pollster, has been very-high quality in their MB provincial/MB fed numbers.

Again, it was a Winnipeg muni election akin to the Calgary muni election. Muni elections are completely different animals (for various reasons) that can "hoop" pollsters of all methodologies for that matter.
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DL
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« Reply #78 on: October 18, 2017, 06:52:46 AM »

There is no comparison between Probe in Winnipeg in 2014 and Mainstreet in calgary in 2017. Probe’s Winnipeg poll was published three weeks before Election Day When Bowman’s campaign was just starting to gain momentum. Their poll was probably an accurate snapshot of where things stood over three weeks before the election. In Calgary Mainstreet did three polls the last of which was in field just three days before people voted.
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Njall
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« Reply #79 on: October 18, 2017, 11:58:03 PM »

Hey njall, what do you think of these names I've given to Calgary's ward?



Overall, I like them. Some notes:

Ward 1: 'Bow' is an appropriate name, but could be confusing since the Bow River runs through much of the city (and Bow Trail is outside the ward). A more appropriate name could be something like 'Bowness-Tuscany' after two major communities in the ward.

Ward 2: This one doesn't really make sense to a Calgarian. I don't know why the provincial riding around here is called Calgary-Foothills, but the actual geographic place in Calgary that's called 'Foothills' is an industrial park in the southeast. A better name could be something like 'Crowfoot-Symons Valley.'

Ward 3: 'Nose Creek' works. Another potential name could be 'Northern Hills,' since all communities in the ward aside from Hidden Valley belong to the Northern Hills Community Association.

Ward 4: 'Nose Hill' works.

Ward 5: 'McCall' works, but could be made more descriptive by tacking 'Saddle Ridge' or 'Saddletowne' onto the name.

Ward 6: The name I've generally given this ward is 'East Springbank-Signal Hill,' since a number of the western communities are part of the East Springbank Area Structure Plan.

Ward 7: Confederation Park is only a boundary point for the ward, so it may not be the best place to draw a name from. Something like 'University-Fort Calgary' or 'Kensington-University' would work better IMO.

Ward 8: 'Currie' could work, but a name that could be preferable would be along the lines of 'Connaught-Lincoln Park,' which covers more of the geographic area and reach of the ward. Connaught is the Ward 8 portion of the densely-populated Beltline south of downtown, and Lincoln Park refers to a community in the southern part of the Ward, which (amongst other things) wholly contains the Mount Royal University campus.

Ward 9: 'Millican-Forest Lawn' works. The meaning of the 'Millican' name may be lost on some though, so changing 'Millican' to 'Inglewood' could be better.

Ward 10: 'Sunridge' is an appropriate name, potentially with 'Marlborough' tacked on to it.

Ward 11: 'Glenmore' is good for the southern part of the ward. Including a reference to the northern part by tacking on something like 'Victoria Park' could make it better.

Ward 12: 'Shepard' is a good name. Tacking 'Seton' onto it may make it more geographically descriptive.

Ward 13: Like Ward 2, 'Shaw' isn't the best name in terms of describing where the ward is. A better name would be 'Fish Creek West,' or potentially 'Woodcreek-Silverado.'

Ward 14: 'Fish Creek' is good. If you called Ward 13 'Fish Creek West,' this could be changed to 'Fish Creek East.'
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #80 on: October 19, 2017, 07:30:19 AM »

What about Glenmore-Elbow for Ward 11?

Coming up with a name for Ward 7 was the hardest one, so I just went with the federal riding name.

Calgary is quite strange it that it has such small neighbourhoods and seldomly has distinct names for neighbourhood clusters. It makes for coming up with names rather difficult.

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Njall
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« Reply #81 on: October 19, 2017, 12:51:26 PM »

What about Glenmore-Elbow for Ward 11?

Coming up with a name for Ward 7 was the hardest one, so I just went with the federal riding name.

Calgary is quite strange it that it has such small neighbourhoods and seldomly has distinct names for neighbourhood clusters. It makes for coming up with names rather difficult.



Glenmoore-Elbow would also work. I agree that it's pretty difficult to come up with names around here. Even provincially with smaller districts, it's pretty tough.
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Njall
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« Reply #82 on: December 12, 2017, 12:48:05 AM »

Mainstream Research has released its internal report into its failures during the Calgary municipal election.

"Mainstreet Research says its internal investigation into the polling failures that led the firm to wrongly predict Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi would lose the October municipal election concludes they were caused by a "perfect storm" of factors.

This includes a failure to poll in non-official languages, a tendency among Nenshi voters not to respond to the firm's polls, and — most crucially — a misgauging of youth voter turnout and their voting intentions, Mainstreet said in a release Monday morning."
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136or142
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« Reply #83 on: December 12, 2017, 12:50:14 AM »
« Edited: December 12, 2017, 01:43:14 AM by 136or142 »

Mainstream Research has released its internal report into its failures during the Calgary municipal election.

"Mainstreet Research says its internal investigation into the polling failures that led the firm to wrongly predict Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi would lose the October municipal election concludes they were caused by a "perfect storm" of factors.

This includes a failure to poll in non-official languages, a tendency among Nenshi voters not to respond to the firm's polls, and — most crucially — a misgauging of youth voter turnout and their voting intentions, Mainstreet said in a release Monday morning."

Anybody think they were paid by Post Media to come up with fake results?  I don't want to get into loony conspiracy theories and 'fake polls' but there did seem to be a coordinated campaign at Post Media to defeat Nenshi and a number of credible people prior to the election did wonder if the Mainstreet polls, which were quite different from the other firm polling the race, seriously asked this question.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #84 on: December 12, 2017, 10:39:43 AM »

I don't buy that they were fixing the numbers intentionally to show Smith ahead, but they did do a lot of playing around with the numbers.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #85 on: December 12, 2017, 02:16:36 PM »

The Hanlon's razor may apply.
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