Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017

[DC Al Fine]

Wow that's a huge difference from the other polls. No matter what happens, someone is getting egg on their face on election day.

[Hatman 🍁]

Battle of the pollsters!

Calgary has more people than provinces half of the provinces. There should not be a huge discrepancy in polling. But then again municipal election polling hasn't really been perfected.

[DC Al Fine]

Now that I think of it, there was a huge difference between the polls and real life in Halifax's municipal election last year. Of course it didn't really matter because 80-20 polls turned into a 70-30 result.

[Njall]

Unfortunately, being that I've had to spend most of my time focusing on Calgary's election due to my involvement in one of the City Council campaigns, I haven't had much time to brush up on Edmonton's election and give some background for those who are reading this thread. Luckily, in looking for background material, I've found that CBC has us covered with analysis of the City Council races, Wards 1-6 here, and Wards 7-12 here. Any good summary of the Council races that I could provide would likely end up being a lower-quality ripoff of those analyses by John Brennan, who is an Edmonton-based political scientist.

It will come as no surprise that most of the focus this election in Edmonton has been on the Council races, since first-term Mayor Don Iveson is expected to easily cruise to re-election. Within the Council races, much of the focus has been on the three open seats: Ward 4 in Northeast Edmonton, and Wards 5 and 9 in Southwest Edmonton. In the others wards, most (if not all) of the incumbents are expected to be re-elected, although a couple of them are in for some tough fights.

[mileslunn]

I think municipal elections are harder to predict due to lower turnout and lower response rate.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Nenshi loses, but nor would I be surprised if he is re-elected.  I've found also by-election or riding polls are often wildly off too.  Provincial and federal polls tend to have a better track record for being accurate.

[Njall]

I think municipal elections are harder to predict due to lower turnout and lower response rate.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Nenshi loses, but nor would I be surprised if he is re-elected.  I've found also by-election or riding polls are often wildly off too.  Provincial and federal polls tend to have a better track record for being accurate.

I've found that as well, but it's interesting that Calgary would be much harder to poll at an overall municipal level when it essentially has the same population as Manitoba, and provincial polling in places like that seem to do better. Could simply be a function of the party system at a provincial level, I suppose.

[mileslunn]

I think municipal elections are harder to predict due to lower turnout and lower response rate.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Nenshi loses, but nor would I be surprised if he is re-elected.  I've found also by-election or riding polls are often wildly off too.  Provincial and federal polls tend to have a better track record for being accurate.

I've found that as well, but it's interesting that Calgary would be much harder to poll at an overall municipal level when it essentially has the same population as Manitoba, and provincial polling in places like that seem to do better. Could simply be a function of the party system at a provincial level, I suppose.

I think you hit the nail on the head when you said party system.  Every party has a certain core vote that will vote for them no matter what while you have a swing vote who are only open to two parties and so whichever of the leaders or platforms they like better or dislike the least they go for.

[super6646]

Tomorrow should be very exciting. There are polls that have Nenshi and Smith ahead by double digits. Like no offence, but how the hell can polling be so bad in a city as large as Calgary (which has more people than Manitoba and Saskatchewan).

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my profile of the main races: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/10/2017-alberta-municipal-elections-today.html

[Njall]

In Calgary, as of 3:00pm, 85,984 people have voted. Including the 74,965 people who voted in advance, 160,949 Calgarians have voted so far. This equates to a voter turnout of 24.14% as of 3pm on election day.

As a note, polls in Calgary were/are open today between 10am and 8pm, so 3pm is the halfway point of polls being open. Because polls opened after most people were at work, those on the ground are expecting a large rush in the evening once people get home from work.

[mileslunn]

Any chance that there will be any exit polls?  I know they don't normally have them for municipal elections, but I do remember in the Vancouver 2005 election there were exit polls (albeit it was done by SFU stats students).

[super6646]

For those who want to watch the calgary election live:

https://globalnews.ca/news/3794809/live-2017-calgary-election-results/

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=68596&playlistId=1.3634613&binId=1.1201914&playlistPageNum=1

[136or142]

For those who want to watch the calgary election live:

https://globalnews.ca/news/3794809/live-2017-calgary-election-results/

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=68596&playlistId=1.3634613&binId=1.1201914&playlistPageNum=1

Long lines at the polls in Calgary.  Some polling stations may stay open there for at least one more hour.

[super6646]

Bill smith leads 10 votes to 5 for Nenshi. I expect that # to go up a lot by the nights end.

[Poirot]

Now after 5 polls, 111 to 84.

[super6646]

Nenshi now leading 853-416

[super6646]

The votes are coming in so slow. Gawd...

[Poirot]

This could be interesting with the conflicting polling results but it's getting too late for me.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow! Rod Frank (the 2015 Liberal candidate) won the mayoral race in Strathcona County!

[super6646]

Waiting for these results are hellish. Will be around 30 more minutes before going to bed.

[mileslunn]

Wow! Rod Frank (the 2015 Liberal candidate) won the mayoral race in Strathcona County!

Strathcona County is more suburban and less rural so not a total surprise.  Also it went mostly NDP provincially although that could very well change in 2019 as it went heavily conservative federally.  Also I've found Albertans tend to be most progressive at the local level, fall somewhere in between, and most conservative federally mainly they feel the feds favour central Canada too much so are more open to smaller government at the federal level than at lower levels.

[DL]

At Nenshi HQ they are getting results called in from scrutineers and they have him ahead 68k to 58k

[Lachi]

Officialy, 73 out of 226 polls have reported, and Nenshi is currently ahead:

Naheed Nenshi: 37,845 (51.7%)
Bill Smith: 31,769 (43.4%)

https://globalnews.ca/news/3702360/calgary-election-2017-whos-running-for-mayor/

[super6646]

Nenshi reelected

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, CTV calling with just 32% of polls reporting? Weird.

And also lol @ Mainstreet