Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017

[super6646]

Honestly didn't care who won this one. Don't like either of the candidates, though I'm happy it was a short night.

[Lachi]

Global haven't currently called the race yet.

One of the newshour final anchors saying that they are "far from calling any Calgary race"

hmm...

[super6646]

Global haven't currently called the race yet.

Seems a bit early given the results, but it doesn't seem likely that smith will catch up unless the trend changes.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm happy it was a short night.

wut

[Lachi]

Global News calls Calgary Mayor race for Nenshi

[mileslunn]

Global has now called it for Nenshi.  Looks like Mainstreet will have an egg on their face, although to be fair their polls where parties exist have generally been fairly accurate so for provincial and federal I still trust them, but for municipal and also riding polls too they have a pretty lousy record so I ignore them.  

As for trends, it does show progressives are still strong, but the tide might be ebbing a bit, still if you are the NDP provincially or Liberals federally there is some hope in Calgary, but again David Broncommier who was a federal Liberal won easily when Calgary was voting PC provincially and Tory federally.

[136or142]

Global has now called it for Nenshi.  Looks like Mainstreet will have an egg on their face, although to be fair their polls where parties exist have generally been fairly accurate so for provincial and federal I still trust them, but for municipal and also riding polls too they have a pretty lousy record so I ignore them.  

As for trends, it does show progressives are still strong, but the tide might be ebbing a bit, still if you are the NDP provincially or Liberals federally there is some hope in Calgary, but again David Broncommier who was a federal Liberal won easily when Calgary was voting PC provincially and Tory federally.

I wonder if the blame belongs on Mainstreet.  I know this might make me sound like an idiot Trump type, but I wonder if PostMedia isn't responsible for the polls as their newspapers (along with Global News Television and Chorus Media Radio are clearly trying to push a conservative agenda and I think clearly the "Nenshi's impending defeat shows left wing on the ropes (in the entire west, anyway)" was something they were promoting.

There are a few contrary voices at these outlets, mainly Andrew Coyne and one or two others, but there is clearly a large amount of 'astroturf' OUTRAGE! with the proposed small business tax changes, as well as, especially in Alberta, that, if it weren't for the Federal and various provincial governments that the pipelines (and natural gas extraction projects in British Columbia) would have gone ahead, and not that the sustained decline in oil and gas prices were the main reason the companies pulled out.

The sleazy and dishonest Claudia Cattaneo along with the sleazy and dishonest John Ivison seem to be the main people at PostMedia behind this.  The dimwitted Vassy Kapelos is the main person behind this at Global, though her routine seems to be simply blaming governments for every problem, and doesn't seem to be part of any right wing agenda.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow - Nenshi lost just two wards (13 & 14 in the southwest corner of the city - Harper country).

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results:

Nenshi - 199,122 (51.4%)
Smith - 169,367 (43.7%)
Chabot - 11,945 (3.1%)
Other - 6,872 (1.8%)

Turnout: 58.1%

[Hatman 🍁]

Some of those conservative councillors who were supposed to win in landslides in the north end, ended up winning by smaller than expected margins, probably due to the higher turnout. However, conservatives still have almost all the council seats. The three progressive councillors were re-elected.

Here are the Edmonton results:

Iveson - 141,182 (72.5%)
Koaziak - 13,204 (6.8%)
Others - 40,440 (20.8%)

Turnout: 31.5%

On Edmonton City council, NDPer Aaron Paquette won Ward 4

[the506]

Quito Maggi's twitter meltdown this morning is entertaining...

[Hatman 🍁]

The pollsters who are the most confident and cocky are usually the one's who are the worst and end up having to eat crow after election day.

[Hatman 🍁]

[DL]

The pollsters who are the most confident and cocky are usually the one's who are the worst and end up having to eat crow after election day.

That is sooo true. Remember Forum Research when they confidently predicted that the Liberal would win Brandon-Souris by 30 points???

[Hatman 🍁]

The pollsters who are the most confident and cocky are usually the one's who are the worst and end up having to eat crow after election day.

That is sooo true. Remember Forum Research when they confidently predicted that the Liberal would win Brandon-Souris by 30 points???

I don't remember them being quite so awful as Quito Maggi has been. And he is being quite insufferable today on Twitter. I mean, if it was me and I saw how strange our age breaks were, I would tread very lightly about our numbers, as deep down I would have no confidence in them.

[DL]

When it comes to insufferable pollsters, the one who takes the cake has to be John Wright at Ipsos during the 2014 Ontario election campaign. Their polls kept showing the PCs way ahead in contrast to everyone else and they were totally arrogant and condescending about how they HAD to be correct and everyone else was wrong...then the votes were counted and he whimpered away like a dog with its tail between its legs! 

[Hatman 🍁]

When it comes to insufferable pollsters, the one who takes the cake has to be John Wright at Ipsos during the 2014 Ontario election campaign. Their polls kept showing the PCs way ahead in contrast to everyone else and they were totally arrogant and condescending about how they HAD to be correct and everyone else was wrong...then the votes were counted and he whimpered away like a dog with its tail between its legs! 

Oh yeah, that election proved how unreliable opt-in online panels are.

[Njall]

The pollsters who are the most confident and cocky are usually the one's who are the worst and end up having to eat crow after election day.

That is sooo true. Remember Forum Research when they confidently predicted that the Liberal would win Brandon-Souris by 30 points???

I don't remember them being quite so awful as Quito Maggi has been. And he is being quite insufferable today on Twitter. I mean, if it was me and I saw how strange our age breaks were, I would tread very lightly about our numbers, as deep down I would have no confidence in them.

It wasn't just today too, he's been doing that since their first poll came out. The way he was reacting to political scientists and other ordinary Twitter commentators (including me at one point) was astounding for someone in his position.

[Njall]

Final results:

Nenshi - 199,122 (51.4%)
Smith - 169,367 (43.7%)
Chabot - 11,945 (3.1%)
Other - 6,872 (1.8%)

Turnout: 58.1%

That's a new record turnout if I'm not mistaken. Higher than 2010 by about 5 points, and 19-20 points higher than last election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results:

Nenshi - 199,122 (51.4%)
Smith - 169,367 (43.7%)
Chabot - 11,945 (3.1%)
Other - 6,872 (1.8%)

Turnout: 58.1%

That's a new record turnout if I'm not mistaken. 

Highest since the 1930s I think.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey njall, what do you think of these names I've given to Calgary's ward?

[DC Al Fine]

I see Calgary is like Halifax where city council has larger districts than the legislative assembly

[Hatman 🍁]

I see Calgary is like Halifax where city council has larger districts than the legislative assembly

Winnipeg, Edmonton, Regina and Saskatoon are all like that too. It is quite unfortunate.

It's common in your end too, I believe Saint John, Moncton and St. John's all have fewer wards than provincial ridings.

[136or142]

It still says something that 58% turnout is considered excellent or stunning as opposed to say 95% turnout.

[Boston Bread]

It still says something that 58% turnout is considered excellent or stunning as opposed to say 95% turnout.

It's better than any Alberta provincial election since 1993 as well.