Alberta Municipal Elections: October 16, 2017

[mileslunn]

According to a recent Mainstreet Research poll Naheed Nenshi is actually trailing in the polls and it seems his approval has fallen a bit.  Otherwise he was extremely popular at first but it has somewhat worn off.  Also in the last two elections both Alberta and Canada had Conservative governments so having a Progressive municipal one was a good counter-balance whereas now it is the opposite so that might be having a slight effect as Calgary did go mostly Conservative federally except the downtown and Northeast and provincially the combined PC + WR vote was over 50% in most Calgary ridings.

[mileslunn]

How did Nenshi even get elected in a place like Calgary?

Calgary has a long history of electing fairly progressive mayors even if it goes Conservative at other levels.  Also the NDP in Alberta won the majority of Calgary seats mind you it's true a lot of that was due to vote splitting on the right unlike Edmonton where they would have swept the city even with a united right.  Last provincial election Calgary was 33% NDP, 31% PC and 24% WR.  Also federally, the Liberals won two seats in Calgary and came close to winning a third so the central and Northeastern parts are not as conservative as say the southern sections which is where Harper and Kenney are from.  The Northeast has a large East Indian community which turned hard against the Conservatives and swung heavily towards the Liberals as you saw in Brampton and Surrey.  The central part has a fairly young population and younger Albertans are a lot more progressive than older Albertans.  Amongst millennial Albertans, they aren't that much conservative than elsewhere in Canada, its more amongst Generation X, Boomers, and the Silent Generation who are significantly more conservative than elsewhere.

[mileslunn]

I think municipal elections are harder to predict due to lower turnout and lower response rate.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Nenshi loses, but nor would I be surprised if he is re-elected.  I've found also by-election or riding polls are often wildly off too.  Provincial and federal polls tend to have a better track record for being accurate.

[mileslunn]

I think municipal elections are harder to predict due to lower turnout and lower response rate.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Nenshi loses, but nor would I be surprised if he is re-elected.  I've found also by-election or riding polls are often wildly off too.  Provincial and federal polls tend to have a better track record for being accurate.

I've found that as well, but it's interesting that Calgary would be much harder to poll at an overall municipal level when it essentially has the same population as Manitoba, and provincial polling in places like that seem to do better. Could simply be a function of the party system at a provincial level, I suppose.

I think you hit the nail on the head when you said party system.  Every party has a certain core vote that will vote for them no matter what while you have a swing vote who are only open to two parties and so whichever of the leaders or platforms they like better or dislike the least they go for.

[mileslunn]

Any chance that there will be any exit polls?  I know they don't normally have them for municipal elections, but I do remember in the Vancouver 2005 election there were exit polls (albeit it was done by SFU stats students).

[mileslunn]

Wow! Rod Frank (the 2015 Liberal candidate) won the mayoral race in Strathcona County!

Strathcona County is more suburban and less rural so not a total surprise.  Also it went mostly NDP provincially although that could very well change in 2019 as it went heavily conservative federally.  Also I've found Albertans tend to be most progressive at the local level, fall somewhere in between, and most conservative federally mainly they feel the feds favour central Canada too much so are more open to smaller government at the federal level than at lower levels.

[mileslunn]

Global has now called it for Nenshi.  Looks like Mainstreet will have an egg on their face, although to be fair their polls where parties exist have generally been fairly accurate so for provincial and federal I still trust them, but for municipal and also riding polls too they have a pretty lousy record so I ignore them.  

As for trends, it does show progressives are still strong, but the tide might be ebbing a bit, still if you are the NDP provincially or Liberals federally there is some hope in Calgary, but again David Broncommier who was a federal Liberal won easily when Calgary was voting PC provincially and Tory federally.