Congressional Districts - 2016 ACS estimates.

[Nyvin]

What about the smallest?

Rhode Island's two districts for starters.

[Nyvin]

12 North Carolina   849  Charlotte
4 North Carolina    847  Raleigh

Pretty impressive to have to Democratic vote sinks also be the two fastest-growing districts in the state. Although I suppose the NC Leg had the 2015 or 2014 data in hand when they redistricted based on 2010 Census data so it's not a coincidence.

Yeah,  NC-4 and NC-2 are BOTH overpopulated, BOTH fast growing, NC-2 is BARELY Safe R anymore, NC will be gaining a seat in 2020 meaning all current seats will shrink in size...

...and somehow we're supposed to believe the Republicans can draw an 11-3 map for 2022.

[Nyvin]

With 5 of 18 IL CDs on jimrtex's list of the undersized, it's pretty clear why IL must lose at least one CD. The 5 include two minority CDs from Chicago, two CDs from outside Chicagoland, and 1 that skirts the exurbs into downstate. Three are solid D and two are R, but the R seats are at opposite ends of the state. If the loss is only one CD, as currently forecast, I can imagine wholesale changes as the Dems try to maintain the same representation for Chicago and force the loss on the Pubs.

Wouldn't it make the most sense to cut up IL-16 between the two (Chicago and non-Chicago) though? 

Most of it would go toward the west and south, but a small portion would obviously be needed in the Chicago area though.   

Most of the Chicago districts can just be equalized between each other, since there's both under and overpopulated districts.

[Nyvin]

With 5 of 18 IL CDs on jimrtex's list of the undersized, it's pretty clear why IL must lose at least one CD. The 5 include two minority CDs from Chicago, two CDs from outside Chicagoland, and 1 that skirts the exurbs into downstate. Three are solid D and two are R, but the R seats are at opposite ends of the state. If the loss is only one CD, as currently forecast, I can imagine wholesale changes as the Dems try to maintain the same representation for Chicago and force the loss on the Pubs.

If Dems have full control over redistricting, which requires Rauner to go or Madigan to gain a greater legislative control, I have always assumed the loss would be 12/13. With the 12th shrinking, it perfect sense for the Dems to cut one, and then combine the most Democratic bits to try to create another democratic seat. Some bits might be needed for 17th, but with Chicagoland marching leftward, it might just be easier to go grab some of the suburbs.

The 17th is probably the biggest challenge for the Dems. They can either stick a finger into Springfield and Decatur like the 2001 map or run a finger down the river to E St Louis. Either way that takes a piece out of what they probably need to make a southern IL CD. The south has just been swinging so far R the last few cycles, that it becomes harder and harder to build a Dem district.

I do agree that they'd likely dismantle IL-16 and try to run fingers further out from Chicago in to the burbs. Keeping 3 black CDs will be their challenge in Chicago. The areas immediately south and west of the Loop in IL-7 have been gentrifying and losing black population. That population has been dispersing or leaving the state and that means it is hard to replace with the next tier of suburbs out from the city.

Is it possible that Illinois will only be required to have 2 BVAP majority districts? 

[Nyvin]

New York

1 New York          0.972
2 New York          0.963
3 New York          1.003
4 New York          0.983
5 New York          1.136
6 New York          1.049
7 New York          1.070
8 New York          1.087
9 New York          1.016
10 New York         0.952
11 New York         1.009
12 New York         0.966
13 New York         1.176
14 New York         0.914
15 New York         1.081
16 New York         1.012
17 New York         1.028
18 New York         0.981
19 New York         0.928
20 New York         0.983
21 New York         0.958
22 New York         0.940
23 New York         0.940
24 New York         0.948
25 New York         0.978
26 New York         0.952
27 New York         0.976

With these numbers, its obvious Upstate will have to take the hit. The obvious district to cut is the 22nd, since it lacks a geographic base and is instead squished between those that do. It getting cut however probaby means a general resuffling upstate that will lock down most seats: Ithica to the 24th, Binghamton to the 23th, Rome/utica to 21st, etc.

The two questions I would have is 1.  Is it possible to make a realistic district that combines Ithaca and Syracuse?

2.  Is NY-26 going to expand into the suburbs enough to make it a competitive district?

If Democrats control redistricting they would probably make #1 happen somehow, but #2 would probably be unavoidable.