Ontario municipal elections, 2018 (Oct 22)

[trebor204]

Ed Holder leads in London after the 1st round of ballots.
The counting of the 2nd round of ballots takes place Tuesday morning.


Threshold: 48,320

Holder: 33,402
Polatto: 21,456
Park 19,656
Cheng: 19,161

If London are using voting machines, why are they taking forever the counts the ballots.
All they need to do to is push a button, and viola.

[lilTommy]

My Count (we can argue this) on what Toronto Council looks like:

Conservatives (non-Tory allies, right wing, reactionaries)
-> 5
   Ford, Holyday, Nunziata (could be Tory ally), Minnan-Wong, Karygiannis

Progressives (New Dems, Left-Progressive, left-Liberal, non-Tory allies)
-> 8
     Perks, Perruzza, Cressy, Layton, Matlow, Wong-Tam, Fletcher, Carroll

Moderates (conservative Tory allies, moderate-Liberals)
-> 9
     Grimes, Pasternak, Colle, Robinson, Bradford (Tory and Keesmaat endorsed, Liberal looking), Crawford, Thompson, Ainslie. Bailao

Not really sure
-> 3
     Lai, McKelvie (Liberal I think), Fillion (Red-Tory I think, not sure if hes a Tory ally though)

So with the Tory Moderates/allies and the "not sure" which seem all moderates, Tory almost has a working majority of 12. He can either go right or left, my thinking will be he will try and get more soft-left support for policies, Councillors like Carroll and Perruzza. He has fewer soft-right options, Nunziata is an opportunist so I think she will go along with Tory as long as its not too left.

[DL]

Bailao votes with the progressive block about 98% of the time

[lilTommy]

Bailao votes with the progressive block about 98% of the time

Yes, but she is seen as more a Tory ally and member of his team.

The Star has an article on this very thing! - https://www.thestar.com/news/toronto-election/2018/10/22/tory-expected-to-have-slim-majority-of-allies-on-slimmed-down-city-council.html

I think Lai looks more like a moderate conservative but she's an unknown factor as of yet.

Ainslie sounds more ify then I thought, but still could be an ally if they get past the Scarborough subway.

[adma]

Fillion's a moderate-left maverick.  I think I read about Lai having a socon streak, so I'd assign her rightward, or right-mod at best.

[mileslunn]

I would also put Minnan Wong under moderate Tory ally. He ran as a PC candidate, but was deputy mayor and a very strong critic of both the Ford Brothers not a supporter of them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's the ideological breakdown of the Ottawa election (assigning parties to people based on donations or known support):

Orleans: Conservative --> Liberal (open seat)
Innes: Moderate Conservative --> Centre(?) (open seat)
Barrhaven: Conservative hold
Kanata North: Liberal --> Centre(?) (open seat) the incumbent endorsed the winner, so status quo.
West Carleton-March: Right wing Liberal hold
Stittsville: Centre(?) GAIN from Liberal.  I think the guy who won is more left wing than the incumbent.
Bay: Liberal --> NDP (open seat)
College: Right wing Liberal hold.
Knoxdale-Merivale: Centre hold
Gloucester-Southgate: Left wing Liberal hold
Beacon Hill-Cyrville: Liberal hold
Rideau-Vanier: Left wing Liberal hold
Rideau-Rockcliffe: Left wing Liberal hold
Somerset: NDP hold
Kitchissippi: Progressive hold
River: Red Tory hold
Capital: NDP GAIN from Green
Alta Vista: Centre-right Liberal hold
Cumberland: Liberal hold
Osgoode: Moderate Conservative hold
Rideau-Goulbourn: Moderate Conservative hold
Gloucester-South Nepean: Conservative GAIN from Liberal
Kanata South: Conservative hold

Much like Toronto though, the real council cleavage is between those who support the mayor and those who don't. And unlike Toronto, there aren't any crazy right wingers who oppose the mayor the most. Much of the opposition in Ottawa comes from the left, which has now doubled in size.

[Hatman 🍁]

London's results have been published. Former Tory MP Ed Holder is elected on the 13th ballot, defeating Paul Paolatto.

No first round leaders ended up losing.

[adma]

I would also put Minnan Wong under moderate Tory ally. He ran as a PC candidate, but was deputy mayor and a very strong critic of both the Ford Brothers not a supporter of them.

*Not* moderate.  *Definitely* on Tory's right flank.

Otherwise, there'd only be 2 or 3 or so who'd be "beyond moderate".

[King of Kensington]

It looks like the pattern of the "municipal left" doing relatively better in the west end than in the east end held up again, even without a west end pol as the "progressive" mayoral candidate this time.

[DC Al Fine]

Kingston votes to adopt ranked ballots!

Looks like Cambridge is going to as well!

I'm also super chuffed at Shawn Menard and Theresa Kavanagh getting elected to city council here in Ottawa. Both are true orange New Democrats. Menard beat incumbent David Chernushenko (the man Elizabeth May beat to become Green Party leader), and Kavanagh picked up an open seat that was vacated by Liberal Mark Taylor.

In my home ward, it was a nailbiter with incumbent councillor Jean Cloutier, right of centre Liberal beating a left of centre Liberal, Raylene Lang-Dion by just 200 votes. I of course voted for neither of them.

The school trustee race was between two progressives. I voted for the card carrying New Democrat who lost to the incumbent, who has only donated to the NDP.

Wow the Greens produced an unpopular incumbent who went down in defeat. They're all grown up

[Hatman 🍁]

Kingston votes to adopt ranked ballots!

Looks like Cambridge is going to as well!

I'm also super chuffed at Shawn Menard and Theresa Kavanagh getting elected to city council here in Ottawa. Both are true orange New Democrats. Menard beat incumbent David Chernushenko (the man Elizabeth May beat to become Green Party leader), and Kavanagh picked up an open seat that was vacated by Liberal Mark Taylor.

In my home ward, it was a nailbiter with incumbent councillor Jean Cloutier, right of centre Liberal beating a left of centre Liberal, Raylene Lang-Dion by just 200 votes. I of course voted for neither of them.

The school trustee race was between two progressives. I voted for the card carrying New Democrat who lost to the incumbent, who has only donated to the NDP.

Wow the Greens produced an unpopular incumbent who went down in defeat. They're all grown up

ha! I don't even  know how involved he is anymore with the Greens. But, he hasn't been a very involved councillor, and I'd say the other urban councillors are much more "activist" than he is, and the guy who beat him is no exception. As an example, being the councillor who rides his bike to work (only in fair-weather) isn't going to cut it anymore. We have year round cyclists on council now

[Hatman 🍁]

Mayor result by ward in Ottawa:



Seems boring on the surface, but the devil is in the details. Surprisingly, Rideau-Vanier (significant Francophone population, working class, high student population) gave Watson "only" 48%. The area usually votes Liberal provincially and federally, but municipally it has shown a progressive streak (was Alex Munter's best ward in 2006). In 2010 though, it was Watson's BEST ward, and that was also with Doucet on the ballot.

The traditionally conservative rural areas had no choice but to vote for Watson against Doucet, but the suburban wards were Watson's best. He nearly broke 80% in Cumberland ward, which is in the far east (mix of rural and suburban).

[Hatman 🍁]