Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[parochial boy]

I don't think the French system is worse, as in theory it should mean the winner should have the majority support of the electorate (though if the top 2 candidates received fewer than 50% of the vote, this is not the case).

That's exactly why I think it's worse. It's even less proportional than FPTP. Majoritarian votes exclude unpopular ideological minorities even more so than FPTP and rewards the inoffensive with larger seat counts. En Marche! got a majority off of 28% of the first round vote last year. I don't think that's remotely fair. FPTP at least allows an outlet so long as the unpopular group can concentrate their vote.

Oh, I see what you mean. Yeah, I agree. The Liberals would probably have a super majority if we had that system federally (this is why Trudeau supports AV). I don't think it would skew things as badly in Quebec provincial politics though.

Do you (or anyone else) have any ideas what a two round system would look like in Quebec? I assume Anglophone voters would vote Anyone But PQ in the 2nd round, but that really only affects the few seats where Anglos are a significant portion of the vote but not enough to move the Liberals out of 3rd place. I have no idea what Francophone 2nd votes would look like.

How many seats with a significant number of anglos would PLQ not make a second round in? Maybe a couple of QS targets in central Montréal /côté-des-neiges sort of places, but basically none off the island?

Even the Eastern Townships are pretty much devoid of anglophones these days iirc.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah you're probably right. The only places it would make a difference would be wherever QS is competitive plus maybe Iberville (there's a Liberal part of the riding that I think is Anglo, but otherwise PLQ is a distant third).

It would be the Francophones who would be more interesting. Thoughts?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, they would probably vote CAQ, in any PQ-CAQ race, no?

[MaxQue]

Well, they would probably vote CAQ, in any PQ-CAQ race, no?

Perhaps, but not for sure (especially with CAQ being more nationalist than PQ on race/religion issues).

[JG]

Well, they would probably vote CAQ, in any PQ-CAQ race, no?

I think most of them would probably abstrain if they had to pick between the two. The new Mainstreet poll shows the Quebec NDP and the Quebec conservative party polling as high as the CAQ with anglos (8%). Considering how small and non-significant these parties are right now, it shows how much anglos don't want to vote for either the CAQ or PQ.

[MaxQue]

Ridings with towns with a bilingual status (excluding the ones where Anglo population fell below 10% and towns of less than 1000 inhabitants) and where PLQ might fail to make in top 2:

Iberville (Noyan and Saint-Georges-de-Clarenceville)
Groulx (Rosemère, which is in fact is the reason why this is the only North Shore riding than Liberals can win, was CAQ 31, PLQ 30, PQ 30 last time)

[Poirot]

There was a riding poll for Rosemont, done April 3-10 by IVR, 555 people, margin of error 4%.

PQ 27%
CAQ 24%
QS 21%
PLQ 18%

NDPQ will probably have Paulina Ayala as candidate. She was NDP MP for Honoré-Mercier. In the same news story, it is reported the party will have a logo and website next week and could possibly run 40 to 60 candidates in the election.

[MAINEiac4434]

NPDQ already have a logo:

[MaxQue]

NPDQ already have a logo:

That's a temporary logo.

[Hatman 🍁]

one would hope they move away from using the same two colours as QS.

[DC Al Fine]

one would hope they move away from using the same two colours as QS.

What would you suggest given that QS owns Orange? Its a bit of a weird situation.

[Hatman 🍁]

one would hope they move away from using the same two colours as QS.

What would you suggest given that QS owns Orange? Its a bit of a weird situation.

Orange and blue would look good for them, I think. It is Quebec, after all. But odd that this logo is orange and purple.

[RogueBeaver]

There have been umpteen retirements in recent days, mostly ministers but also Amir Khadir yesterday. Most recent retirements are Laurent Lessard (Ag) and David Huertel (Environment).

Ipsos: 35 (+1), 32 (+2), 20 (-3).

[TRUZTNO1]

I am running to conservative party of Quebec. The bad policies the PQ and QS. Sadly between the PQ and CAQ are with unions in their asses they are playing with unions directors in construction and nurses they been killing Quebec slowly I honestly don't like ether of then.  Sadly the big disappointed of PLQ is about environment and energy with pipelines clueless. I know Quebec need better and respect of tax fares..

[JG]

New LCN/Léger poll:

CAQ: 37%
PLQ: 28%
PQ: 19%
QS: 9%

[UWS]

New LCN/Léger poll:

CAQ: 37%
PLQ: 28%
PQ: 19%
QS: 9%

And even the region of Montreal, that was for a long time favoring the Liberals, seems to be competitive between CAQ and PLQ.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet is out with their quarterly poll and a bit closer than others but due to lead amongst Francophones and regional distribution, CAQ still have the upper hand, but a bit more competitive for the Liberals.

CAQ 32.3%
PLQ 29.7%
PQ 16.5%
QS 11.7%
CPQ 3.5%
NDPQ 2.1%
Vert 1.3%
Autres 2.9%

[RogueBeaver]

I only trust Leger for provincial polls, but Mainstreet's current numbers are actually an improvement for CAQ over their previous one. Minor parties will be much smaller. QS can only win island seats. Seat-wise, that would be the worst Grit result since '76.

[UWS]

Since a provincial election usually lasts around 30 days, we are approximately one month from the beginning of the campaign.

[adma]

I only trust Leger for provincial polls, but Mainstreet's current numbers are actually an improvement for CAQ over their previous one. Minor parties will be much smaller. QS can only win island seats. Seat-wise, that would be the worst Grit result since '76.

I think a better bet would be for the worst PQ seat total since (or even including?!?) '73.  I also wouldn't rule out an island-seat-stigma-breaking QS redoubt in Taschereau, and who knows where else...

[RogueBeaver]

Agreed on the PQ, though probably need closer to 15% than 20% for that. New party could form from PQ ashes that's progressive and staunchly nationalist, but not explicitly sovereigntist. Chantal Hebert wrote about this possibility back in January. Names I'd watch if that happens are Aussant and Cloutier. I'll believe QS wins a Quebec City seat if I see it.

[JG]

Agreed on the PQ, though probably need closer to 15% than 20% for that. New party could form from PQ ashes that's progressive and staunchly nationalist, but not explicitly sovereigntist. Chantal Hebert wrote about this possibility back in January. Names I'd watch if that happens are Aussant and Cloutier. I'll believe QS wins a Quebec City seat if I see it.

Yeah, I agree. Unfortunately, QS winning Taschereau is a pipe dream.

Also, apparently, Couillard is in danger in Roberval.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1115515/sondage-recherche-mainstreet-liberal-coalition-avenir-quebec

CAQ (No candidate announced for the riding yes) - 29%
Couillard - 27%
PQ - 11%
QS -6%

I know Roberval is a special case considering Couillard is the PM, but if the PQ is really polling around 10% in freaking Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean of all places, they really are in bigger trouble than I thought.

Would be curious to see how Gaudreault is doing in Jonquière.

[Hatman 🍁]

If there were a comprised of La Cité-Limoilou borough, then I think QS could win it. Unfortunately, the current map divides the borough in half, splitting the progressive vote. 

[VPH]

Agreed on the PQ, though probably need closer to 15% than 20% for that. New party could form from PQ ashes that's progressive and staunchly nationalist, but not explicitly sovereigntist. Chantal Hebert wrote about this possibility back in January. Names I'd watch if that happens are Aussant and Cloutier. I'll believe QS wins a Quebec City seat if I see it.

Also, apparently, Couillard is in danger in Roberval.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1115515/sondage-recherche-mainstreet-liberal-coalition-avenir-quebec

CAQ (No candidate announced for the riding yes) - 29%
Couillard - 27%
PQ - 11%
QS -6%

I know Roberval is a special case considering Couillard is the PM, but if the PQ is really polling around 10% in freaking Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean of all places, they really are in bigger trouble than I thought.

Would be curious to see how Gaudreault is doing in Jonquière.

Isn't that basically the PQ base region? Working class small town Quebec?

[JG]

Agreed on the PQ, though probably need closer to 15% than 20% for that. New party could form from PQ ashes that's progressive and staunchly nationalist, but not explicitly sovereigntist. Chantal Hebert wrote about this possibility back in January. Names I'd watch if that happens are Aussant and Cloutier. I'll believe QS wins a Quebec City seat if I see it.

Also, apparently, Couillard is in danger in Roberval.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1115515/sondage-recherche-mainstreet-liberal-coalition-avenir-quebec

CAQ (No candidate announced for the riding yes) - 29%
Couillard - 27%
PQ - 11%
QS -6%

I know Roberval is a special case considering Couillard is the PM, but if the PQ is really polling around 10% in freaking Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean of all places, they really are in bigger trouble than I thought.

Would be curious to see how Gaudreault is doing in Jonquière.

Isn't that basically the PQ base region? Working class small town Quebec?

Yes. If they are losing that big in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean , they are pretty much done.

https://www.journaldequebec.com/2018/08/01/campagne-estivale-oui-mais-pas-trop

Apparently, Liberals strategists have stopped hoping Lisée would bounce back and take support away from the CAQ and will actively go after vulnerable ridings like Bonaventure (in Gaspésie) and Lac-Saint-Jean. Bonaventure might be a bit more swingier, but PQ have hold Lac Saint-Jean since 1976 and Cloutier won it with 44% in 2014. If Liberals's internal numbers are showing them there is a chance they might even win it, then it's another sign that PQ is in deep trouble.