Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[adma]

Agreed on the PQ, though probably need closer to 15% than 20% for that.

16.5% is closer to 15% than 20%.  Just saying.

[RogueBeaver]

Couillard taking a page from Harper's 2015 playbook by floating starting the writ campaign a week early, i.e. in 2 weeks rather than 3 as scheduled.

[EPG]

I see polls above suggesting the CPQ + NDPQ will win as much as 6%
What do Québec people think of this? It seems really high to me, as they are worse than 4th parties in a plurality electoral system.
If they underperform, who benefits relative to today's polls?

[RogueBeaver]

Polls always overestimate minor parties. In 2014 they got about 2%, no reason to imagine it'll be any different.

[lilTommy]

I see polls above suggesting the CPQ + NDPQ will win as much as 6%
What do Québec people think of this? It seems really high to me, as they are worse than 4th parties in a plurality electoral system.
If they underperform, who benefits relative to today's polls?

Quebec is very unique in this regards, the province has had a penchant for electing minor parties/independents.
Going back to the, about 1900's minor parties were winning 1-3 seats, fringe parties back then were nationalists, workers etc. In the 30's the ALN came out of nowhere and would become the Union Nationale. CCF won seats, the Créditistes won seats, in 1970 you saw the PQ win 7, Créditistes with 12. The PQ was basically a minor party for 6 years (2 elections) till they won power. l'ADQ was a minor party for about a decade till they burst in 2007, now as the CAQ are close to winning. QS won its first in 08, and has won an additional seat each election. I would say its not totally out of scope for, in particular the the NPDQ, to win a seat... if they focus on just Fortin. But Verdun is a hard seat to win since the PQV is also running their leader there.
Had the NPDQ, PQV and even to a lesser extent QS worked together to mutually elect their leaders (not run a candidate and "endorse" each other, certainly not run leaders against each other) the NPDQ could have won Verdun. But not now, not this election their first time out. But it is Quebec politics, stranger things have happened.

[mileslunn]

Does the PLQ have a monetary advantage over the CAQ?  I am thinking if they have a monetary advantage a long campaign works in their favour.  Could also be trying to catch Legault off guard but since the date is fixed, not sure that will be as effective as say it was for Jean Chretien in 2000 against Stockwell Day.  I have though noticed for whatever reason, the PLQ almost always does better than pre-election polls so any particular reason for this?  My thinking is most surveys are done in French only they miss the unilingual Anglophones who tend to vote massively PLQ thus why they underestimate them.  Anybody can comment on this?

[DL]

Surveys in Quebec always give people the option of responding in English so that is not the issue. IMHO the reason why polls have tended to underestimate the PLQ vote in the past is that up to now every Quebec election eventually turns into a referendum on whether to have another referendum...and in the end "shy federalists" and people who decide at the last minute tend to overwhelmingly opt for the safer choice. We are in very uncharted territory here because the PQ is totally marginalized and the main competition to the PLQ is from another federalist party - the CAQ

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't call the CAQ federalists as Federalism is a euphemism for Canadian Nationalism and they're Quebec Nationalists ever bit as much as the PQ, it's just that they aren't also seperatists.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does the PLQ have a monetary advantage over the CAQ?  I am thinking if they have a monetary advantage a long campaign works in their favour.  Could also be trying to catch Legault off guard but since the date is fixed, not sure that will be as effective as say it was for Jean Chretien in 2000 against Stockwell Day.  I have though noticed for whatever reason, the PLQ almost always does better than pre-election polls so any particular reason for this?  My thinking is most surveys are done in French only they miss the unilingual Anglophones who tend to vote massively PLQ thus why they underestimate them.  Anybody can comment on this?

While it probably doesn't account for much, Quebec polls are French first/English second, which suppresses some Anglophone responses. Any firm that weights by language though can overcome this problem fairly easily, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't call the CAQ federalists as Federalism is a euphemism for Canadian Nationalism and they're Quebec Nationalists ever bit as much as the PQ, it's just that they aren't also seperatists.

Indeed, and CAQ's ancestor party, the ADQ was definitely a separatist party.  In the end, almost all federalists will still vote for the Liberals.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

What is the CAQ's positions on various Montreal transit projects (Blue/Green Line extensions, Plante's Pink Line, REM, etc.)? Do they plan to renege on recent agreements Couillard has come to with Plante regarding these projects?

[RogueBeaver]

Former Habs player Enrico Ciccone will run for the Grits.

[RogueBeaver]

Writ campaign starts in 12 days.

[MaxQue]

What is the CAQ's positions on various Montreal transit projects (Blue/Green Line extensions, Plante's Pink Line, REM, etc.)? Do they plan to renege on recent agreements Couillard has come to with Plante regarding these projects?

The CAQ is clearly opposed to the Pink line, as it does nothing for suburbs. They want a tramway instead. They are for the REM, but are quite upset there is no obligation of it being built in Québec. They support the Blue line extension.

[VPH]

Went to the Congrès des Jeunes Libéraux today! The Liberals have such a well-organized youth wing it's insane. Youth also are guaranteed just about 1/3 of everything in the party, so they end up better off than youth wings of any other party.

10 different resolutions were passed, including one calling for an end to sales of gasoline only cars by 2040, one pushing for immigrants to settle in rural areas with job openings, one asking the government to promote autonomous public transit, one encouraging healthier eating, and one seeking to develop a provincial strategy for mental health on campus. This last one is similar to a motion that in the past brought about a strategy for addressing sexual assault on campus.

[Hatman 🍁]

Strange. Why would young people want to support that party?

[MaxQue]

Strange. Why would young people want to support that party?

Liberals are quite popular with the youth, in fact, especially since they present themselves as a "left" alternative to CAQ.

Some support it because the economy is doing quite good, some support it as the only way to block right-wing CAQ, some do because it's the only party that's not nationalist in some way.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, the good news about that is it means the threat of separatism will continue to die a slow death.

But the Liberals aren't that far to the left of CAQ, are they?

[RogueBeaver]

Not really. TBH ideological distinctions on most issues aren't yuge - all 3 heartily endorse the "Quebec model."

[136or142]

Well, the good news about that is it means the threat of separatism will continue to die a slow death.

But the Liberals aren't that far to the left of CAQ, are they?

Outside of the right wing Quebec Identity politics, from my little knowledge of Quebec politics, it reminds me of the old battles between the Federal Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives. Both were essentially centrist political parties.  The liberals were slightly more to the left generally than the P.Cs and the Liberals also campaigned as slightly more to the left than they governed. 

For instance, Pierre Trudeau's governments were regarded as extremely profligate but the Mulroney P.C government didn't do all that much to tackle the deficit either.

[Intell]

I feel like the Quebec liberal party, is the only liberal party throughout Canada, that you can actually support.

+ They seem better than their oppnoents.

[toaster]

Went to the Congrès des Jeunes Libéraux today! The Liberals have such a well-organized youth wing it's insane. Youth also are guaranteed just about 1/3 of everything in the party, so they end up better off than youth wings of any other party.

10 different resolutions were passed, including one calling for an end to sales of gasoline only cars by 2040, one pushing for immigrants to settle in rural areas with job openings, one asking the government to promote autonomous public transit, one encouraging healthier eating, and one seeking to develop a provincial strategy for mental health on campus. This last one is similar to a motion that in the past brought about a strategy for addressing sexual assault on campus.

Quite interesting nothing about Pharmacare or Universal Dental Care, moving toward free post-secondary tuition for all, etc.  This is Canada's most left-wing/socialist province, and these things are being brought forward?  A good friend of mine has a good government job in Montreal and it's shocking to me that even their insurance coverage only covers about 75% of medication costs.  That's unheard of in the public sector in Ontario, where cost get 100% pharmacare/dental costs covered.

[mileslunn]

Well, the good news about that is it means the threat of separatism will continue to die a slow death.

But the Liberals aren't that far to the left of CAQ, are they?

Both are actually slightly right of centre at the moment.  The PLQ unlike the Ontario Liberals or federal Liberals are fiscally conservative in terms of believing in balanced budgets and lower taxes.  In fact under Charest and Couillard, they were probably more like the BC Liberals than federal or Ontario Liberals although I suspect if they lose to the CAQ their next leader will be more left wing thus more like the OLP and federal counterparts.  The CAQ is not as right wing as the federal Tories, Ontario PCs, or UCP, but still definitely leans to the right.  The one area where they are to the right of most parties elsewhere in Canada is immigration, but that is an issue Quebecers in general have always been more conservative on.  In a lot of ways, the CAQ is like your typical centre-right party in Continental Europe and in some ways Quebecers on various issues like immigration, welfare state etc. are more European in their thinking than elsewhere in the country.

[mileslunn]

Tomorrow Mainstreet research begins the daily tracker for Quebec so while I cannot share the results should be interesting.  Noticed they've shown things tighter between the CAQ and PLQ than other pollsters so will be interesting if this continues.  I did notice with the Ontario one, they showed the PCs with a much bigger lead than others but as we got closer to the election their numbers converged with others.

[136or142]

Well, the good news about that is it means the threat of separatism will continue to die a slow death.

But the Liberals aren't that far to the left of CAQ, are they?

Both are actually slightly right of centre at the moment.  The PLQ unlike the Ontario Liberals or federal Liberals are fiscally conservative in terms of believing in balanced budgets and lower taxes.  In fact under Charest and Couillard, they were probably more like the BC Liberals than federal or Ontario Liberals although I suspect if they lose to the CAQ their next leader will be more left wing thus more like the OLP and federal counterparts.  The CAQ is not as right wing as the federal Tories, Ontario PCs, or UCP, but still definitely leans to the right.  The one area where they are to the right of most parties elsewhere in Canada is immigration, but that is an issue Quebecers in general have always been more conservative on.  In a lot of ways, the CAQ is like your typical centre-right party in Continental Europe and in some ways Quebecers on various issues like immigration, welfare state etc. are more European in their thinking than elsewhere in the country.

It's easier for Quebec to balance it's provincial budget since it receives about $10 Billion in equalization.