Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[RogueBeaver]

More likely that they're overrating QS and underrating PLQ, particularly the latter. Leger tweeted as much recently.

[Poirot]

Given the PLQ's relatively inefficient vote, by approximately how much do they need to win the popular vote by to win the most seats? To win a majority?

Too close to call has posted about this. If PLQ is ahead by 2.5%, each party has 50% chanve of winning the most seats. I think that is in the situation both parties are in the low 30% and the PQ is at 20% and wins at least a dozen seats. When there were two parties the PLQ needed to be ahead by maybe 4-5% to win.

I don't know if it's because of the Mainstreet polls that show CAQ lead decreasing but Legault is already pitching strtaegic voting to PQ voters because he's the only alternative to replace the Liberals. Usually this happens later. Mainstreet in the last months had a CAQ lead smaller than Léger.

I received an automated call from Bellwether technologies for a survey on voting intentions. I've never heard of them so was suspicious it was not a public survey but party polling.   

[JG]

I'm annoyed by how little polling we are getting. Before the campaign starts, we would get one or two polls a week basically showing the same results every time and since the campaign started, we probably got one or two non-Mainstreet polls.

[DC Al Fine]

Given the PLQ's relatively inefficient vote, by approximately how much do they need to win the popular vote by to win the most seats? To win a majority?

Too close to call has posted about this. If PLQ is ahead by 2.5%, each party has 50% chanve of winning the most seats. I think that is in the situation both parties are in the low 30% and the PQ is at 20% and wins at least a dozen seats. When there were two parties the PLQ needed to be ahead by maybe 4-5% to win.

I don't know if it's because of the Mainstreet polls that show CAQ lead decreasing but Legault is already pitching strtaegic voting to PQ voters because he's the only alternative to replace the Liberals. Usually this happens later. Mainstreet in the last months had a CAQ lead smaller than Léger.

I received an automated call from Bellwether technologies for a survey on voting intentions. I've never heard of them so was suspicious it was not a public survey but party polling.   

Thank you

I'm annoyed by how little polling we are getting. Before the campaign starts, we would get one or two polls a week basically showing the same results every time and since the campaign started, we probably got one or two non-Mainstreet polls.

It's weird because its Quebec. This is normal for a small province like SK or NB, but it's weird that Quebec isn't getting lots of polls. Freaking Nova Scotia was more heavily polled in our last election.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/JeanMarcLeger1/status/1038419211285159936

[toaster]

QS being higher among 34-54 year olds than among 18-34 yos (and being behind the Parti Vert in the younger demo) in the Leger poll is so interesting to me.  Forum doesn't mention Parti Vert by name, and that's when we see QS numbers inflate in the younger demo.

[JG]

New Main Street/Le Soleil Poll
CAQ - 32,2%
PLQ - 27,2%
PQ - 21,1%
QS - 15,7%

[Poirot]

Le Soleil also has Mainstreet poll results for the ridings of party leaders.

Rosemont: PQ 34.7, QS 29.5, PLQ 16.3, CAQ 13.9, Other 5.6

Ste-Marie St-Jacques: QS 43.5,  PQ 24.5, PLQ 14.6% CAQ 10, Other 7.4

L'Assomption: CAQ 55.4%, QS 15.2, PQ 12.9, PLQ 9.1, Other 7.4

Roberval: PLQ 33.9%, CAQ 23.3, PQ 11.8, QS 6.1% Other 4.3 

Léger has a poll tomorrow for The Gazette and Le Devoir. His preview is:
44% of Quebecers said that debates might influence their choice.

To compare with Léger here are other results in Le Solei article for Mainstreet.
Franco vote: CAQ 35, PQ 23, PLQ 21, QS 18
Quebec City: CAQ 46, PLQ 21, PQ 16, QS 12
Montreal suburbs: CAQ 36, PLQ 25
Regions: CAQ 34, PQ 25
Women: CAQ 30, PLQ 25
18-34 : QS 31% with the three others between 20-23%

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2018/sondage-mainstreet-la-caq-garde-son-avance-b6a3b789ebb073f3cc621b7597f27001

[JG]

Mainstreet's numbers might be a bit too generous to QS, but Lisée could definitely lose his seat.

I'm surprised at how weak the CAQ is in Roberval. I was expecting them to be quite close to Couillard.

[adma]

The Roberval figures don't add up to 100%.  Is there something missing?

[Poirot]

The Roberval figures don't add up to 100%.  Is there something missing?

Maybe for this one the full riding results reported were raw numbers and the rest undecided. The text mentions Couillard leading 42% to 29%
https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/lisee-se-fait-chauffer-les-oreilles-dans-rosemont-d0ae0a29f548d804e01eb546e7aa7edc

A previous poll in the summer had the parties almost tied but candidate's name were not part of the question. I don't know how strong ties the CAQ candidate has to the riding. She was elected on the Quebec City city council and a CAQ MNA for Charlesbourg.   

Le Quotidien has the result for the other 4 ridings in the region. CAQ leads in all but some polls were done in August.
https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/couillard-reprend-lavance-dans-roberval-e5c037c4ecfba017713d5ce47297c2ec

[StateBoiler]

The Quebec Liberal Party might as well change its name to "The English Vote plus a Few French".

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1039368928353562624?s=19

If these numbers are accurate and with PQ support spread relatively evenly through French speaking Quebec (not as evenly as I'd like) is there a possibility they could get shut out?  (I'd like that)

[RogueBeaver]

No, a PQ shutout would require low double digits.

[136or142]

No, a PQ shutout would require low double digits.

What about falling below official party status (whatever number that is)?

[MaxQue]

No, a PQ shutout would require low double digits.

What about falling below official party status (whatever number that is)?

12 seats or 20% (no matter the number of seats, if you get 20% of votes, you're an official party).

[136or142]

No, a PQ shutout would require low double digits.

What about falling below official party status (whatever number that is)?

12 seats or 20% (no matter the number of seats, if you get 20% of votes, you're an official party).

Thanks!

[Poirot]

To compare with Léger here are other results in Le Solei article for Mainstreet.
Franco vote: CAQ 35, PQ 23, PLQ 21, QS 18
Quebec City: CAQ 46, PLQ 21, PQ 16, QS 12
Montreal suburbs: CAQ 36, PLQ 25
Regions: CAQ 34, PQ 25
Women: CAQ 30, PLQ 25
18-34 : QS 31% with the three others between 20-23%

Léger
CAQ 35, PLQ 29, PQ 21, QS 11, Green 2, NDPQ 1, QConservative 1

Franco: CAQ 42, PQ 25, PLQ 17, QS 12
Non franco: PLQ 70, CAQ 11, PQ 7, QS 7, Green 3, NDPQ 2
Franco number for PLQ is higher in Mainstreet but lower overall so it must have much worse number for non-franco.

Quebec City: CAQ 42, PLQ 21, PQ 14, QS 11, QConservative 8
Haven't seen the Mainstreet number for Quebec Conservative but 8% if true would be big for them.

Rest of Quebec: CAQ 44, PLQ 24, PQ 19, QS 9
Mainstreet showed a tighter CAQ PQ race

Women: CAQ 35% PLQ 28%, PQ 19, QS 13
Like Mainstreet CAQ leads

18-34: CAQ and PLQ 28, PQ 21, QS 18
Mainstreet has QS first with 31%

Léger poll results pdf
http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/PolitiqueprovincialeQCEN_20180911.pdf

Satisfaction with government drop back to 29%

Second choice of voters from:
CAQ: PQ 36, PLQ 22, QS 17, Another 9
PLQ: CAQ 32, Another 22, QS 10, PQ 9
PQ: CAQ 39, QS 26, Another 13, PLQ 6
QS: PQ 31, CAQ 21, Another 20, PLQ 13

Expected winner of the leader,s debate
Legault 19%, Couillard 18, Lisée 16, Massé 7, Don't know 39
Seems like nobody has to meet high expectations

[VPH]

CAQ is promising free daycare in the province by 2023. Seems to me like a more economically populist move to gain voters from the PQ, which has actually gained a few points in the last weeks.
https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2018/09/12/5000-classes-a-ajouter-pour-la-caq

[UWS]

The first leader's debate will take place just tomorrow.

[136or142]

CAQ is promising free daycare in the province by 2023. Seems to me like a more economically populist move to gain voters from the PQ, which has actually gained a few points in the last weeks.
https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2018/09/12/5000-classes-a-ajouter-pour-la-caq

These populist promises are getting beyond silly now.

[RogueBeaver]

Bryan Breguet previews tonight's debate.

[RogueBeaver]

Couillard very defensive on healthcare so far.

[DC Al Fine]

I see there is an English debate. How much of a sideshow is it given Anglo voter's preferences and does the PQ even bother showing up?

[RogueBeaver]

Mostly a sideshow and the PQ will show up. Certainly no language issues this time except maybe for Masse. Only previous English debate was a radio one in 1985, and sorta 1962 which had an English segment.