Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[RogueBeaver]

TLDR of the debate: Legault and Lisee accused Couillard of heartlessness on healthcare and special needs education, Couillard/Lisee accused Legault on immigration. Legault said we're sick of Couillard's lecturing, lots of angry crosstalk which is why I tuned out after an hour. The winner was a female voter who asked about eldercare in the first segment and said no one answered her question.

[JG]

TLDR of the debate: Legault and Lisee accused Couillard of heartlessness on healthcare and special needs education, Couillard/Lisee accused Legault on immigration. Legault said we're sick of Couillard's lecturing, lots of angry crosstalk which is why I tuned out after an hour. The winner was a female voter who asked about eldercare in the first segment and said no one answered her question.

What a boring debate. Honestly, this campaign might be one of the least inspiring political campaigns ever.

[Poirot]

Elections Quebec says there are 940 candidates for an average of 7.5 per riding.
Gaspé and Iles-de-la-Madeleine have the least with 4, Laurier-Dorion the most with 12.

The 4 main parties have 125 candidates.
Conservative Party of Quebec 101
Green Party 97
Nouveau Parti démocratique du Québec 59
Citoyens au pouvoir du Québec 56
Bloc pot 29
Parti marxiste-léniniste 25
The other parties run less than 20 candidates.

40% of candidates are women

[RogueBeaver]

Dumont column on Couillard's declaration that immigration was the ballot question. He thinks most likely Couillard wants to lose on a deeply held principle without compromising his beliefs in a desperate attempt to salvage a lost election.

[JG]

Dumont column on Couillard's declaration that immigration was the ballot question. He thinks most likely Couillard wants to lose on a deeply held principle without compromising his beliefs in a desperate attempt to salvage a lost election.

Not sure it was that much of a misstep considering how out of his depth Legault seems to be when it comes to immigration.

[Poirot]

Couillard could be convinced because of manpower shortage it is not a good idea to reduce immigration and hope with time people start to agree, and the details of the CAQ immigration proposal is not realistic, make him look not credible, and serious.

CAQ keep softening the policy and explain how it would work. It was reduce the number of immigrants by 20% and they would have to pass a language test and values test or could face expulsion. Reducing the number now is only temporary, for maybe two years. After following courses it should be easy for everyone to pass a test, and can be flexible for learning disability. Quebec doesn't have power of expulsion so it would become the federal problem if Quebec doesn't deliver a certificate of immigration. Maybe there would need to be a new legal status. Quebec oversees economic immigration but not refugees and family reunification. If the federal government doesn't agree to reduce its numbers, all the reduction would come from economic immigration. CAQ says it would have a mandate to negotiate with Ottawa for immigration.   

[Poirot]

Article pointing out each party's weakness in their financial plan

http://plus.lapresse.ca/screens/db45ad60-0e0b-410b-bea4-63bd1846b604__7C___0.html

cost of promises in 4 years
PLQ 2.449 billion
CAQ 2.678 billion
PQ 2.668 billion (excluding savings hoped in renegotiating doctor's pay deal)
QS 12.9 billion

The auditor general attested as reasonable the government's economic projections for the future just before the election.

PLQ invceased the growth forecast approved by the auditor for the next mandate and that creates $5.2 billion to pay for promises.

CAQ also increses growth forecast from the auditor attested forecast to create $1 billion. They want to save 4 billion in spending in four years which is more than the Liberal have saved with their cuts. There is doubt on the cost forecast of creating kindergarten for 4 year olds. CAQ did not include potential savings from renegotiating the doctor's pay agreement.

PQ took the auditor's numbers. They include savings from renegotiating the doctor's pay increase but the result is uncertain.

QS figures it will find 12 billion in taxing higher income earners, business, fighting tax evasion, higher minimum wage and royalties on minimg and water. They based their numbers on positive benefits without factoring in negative consequences of policies. 

[Poirot]

Parti 51 proposes Quebec join the US and becomes the 51st state. It's running 5 candidates. The leader is a candidate in Beauce-Sud and he has signs.

http://www.coolfm.biz/nouvelle/66-quebec-51-bien-affiche-dans-beauce-sud

[Poirot]

Mostly a sideshow and the PQ will show up. Certainly no language issues this time except maybe for Masse. Only previous English debate was a radio one in 1985, and sorta 1962 which had an English segment.

First ever televised debate in English is today. Strange hours from 5:30 pm to 7 pm local time,  broadcast on CBC Montreal (TV and radio), CityTV Montreal, CJAD800 radio, CTV Montreal, Global News and at montrealgazette.com.

[JG]

Parti 51 proposes Quebec join the US and becomes the 51st state. It's running 5 candidates. The leader is a candidate in Beauce-Sud and he has signs.

http://www.coolfm.biz/nouvelle/66-quebec-51-bien-affiche-dans-beauce-sud

How very 1838 of them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Parti 51 proposes Quebec join the US and becomes the 51st state. It's running 5 candidates. The leader is a candidate in Beauce-Sud and he has signs.

http://www.coolfm.biz/nouvelle/66-quebec-51-bien-affiche-dans-beauce-sud

if there's anywhere that party will do well, it's in the Beauce

[DC Al Fine]

Favourite part of the English debate: Lisee making his opening statement about how Quebec needs to be independent and French needing to be its sole language.

I guess if you aren't competing for Anglo votes you might as well own it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also amazing that his English was the best of the four.

[DC Al Fine]

Also amazing that his English was the best of the four.

Haha, very true. Couilliard was fine too, but Legault and Masse were pretty painful to listen to.

[Poirot]

Mainstreet public poll, done September 14-15, margin of error 2.4%

29.1% CAQ
28.6% PLQ
21.5% PQ
17.1% QS

who won the first debate
don't know / didn't watch 31.6%
Lisée 22.3%
Couillard 17.2%
Legault 16.6%
Massé 12.4%

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2018/sondage-mainstreet-recherche-la-caq-et-le-plq-au-coude-a-coude-17183bea4c24ce79e292c1111eaf9daf

It looks like the next day of polling was bad for CAQ, people are saying in the most recent poll the Liberals lead 30% to 27%. The weekend was when Legault couldn't answer question about  how the immigration system works. 

[mileslunn]

While a majority for the PLQ still looks unlikely, a majority for the CAQ is slipping away and a PLQ minority is looking more realistic.  I've found in Quebec politics, since the PLQ is seen as the safest choice, usually they tend do better on election day than what pre-writ numbers suggest so not a huge surprise.  The second debate will be key as a strong performance by Couillard could seal the deal, a strong performance by Lisee could create a three way race although probably not enough to win, but sort of like 2007.  A strong performance by Legault though could allow him to rebound into the lead.  The PQ does look like they will avoid annihiliation as earlier polls suggest, but they are still on thin ice and long-term as there has been a long term decline for them.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger confirms Mainstreet: 31/30/21/14.

[Tintrlvr]

Favourite part of the English debate: Lisee making his opening statement about how Quebec needs to be independent and French needing to be its sole language.

I guess if you aren't competing for Anglo votes you might as well own it.

I'm a bit surprised the PQ showed up to the English debate. Have they skipped English debates in the past?

[MaxQue]

Favourite part of the English debate: Lisee making his opening statement about how Quebec needs to be independent and French needing to be its sole language.

I guess if you aren't competing for Anglo votes you might as well own it.

I'm a bit surprised the PQ showed up to the English debate. Have they skipped English debates in the past?

It was the first English debate since the 80's.

[DC Al Fine]

Favourite part of the English debate: Lisee making his opening statement about how Quebec needs to be independent and French needing to be its sole language.

I guess if you aren't competing for Anglo votes you might as well own it.

I'm a bit surprised the PQ showed up to the English debate. Have they skipped English debates in the past?

It was the first English debate since the 80's.

Hmm, PLQ vs Equality Party would have been interesting to watch.

[JG]

Legault is running such an awful campaign.

[Hatman 🍁]

Did anyone take the vote compass (https://votecompass.cbc.ca/quebec/)? It's weird because the y axis is not social issues, but identity issues, and so because I am a maudit anglais, it made me look more right wing than any of the parties, including the conservatives! Economically, it put me between the Liberals and the Greens/NDP. Weird, but maybe because I don't support a government monopoly on selling pot and oppose the SAQ monopoly and want doctors to be paid more

As for %s, I got:

Greens 66%
QS 64%
Liberals 62%
NDP 62%
PQ 47%
CAQ 43%
Cons 38%

[Former President tack50]

Well it seems the percentages and the compass seem to be independent from each other.

In the compass I appeared almost tied with the PLQ. However in % I got something completely different:

PLQ: 59%
NDPQ: 59%
PQ: 58%
PVQ: 53%
QS: 53%
CAQ: 51%
PCQ: 38%

So yeah, all parties except PCQ almost tied with each other! I guess in the election I'd generally vote PLQ if I were from Quebec, with the off chance of voting NDP-Q, PVQ or QS depending on riding.

[ON Progressive]

PVQ: 74%
NPD: 69% (nice)
QS: 68%
PLQ: 65%
PQ: 56%
CAQ: 49%
PCQ: 35%

[bigic]

I agree the most with the Liberals, as I expected.
PLQ 67%
CAQ 59%
PCQ 57%
NPD 43%
PVQ 42%
QS 40%
PQ 35%
On the compass I'm a bit to the bottom and to the right of PLQ:
screenshotscdn.firefoxusercontent.com/images/3b884fe2-43d0-4d36-a433-8126bc9bbb69.png