Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[DC Al Fine]

Excellent Hebert column. PQ's desperation reminds me of BQ's against Layton in the final days of 2011.

Lisé's attacks are pathetic. And all the PQ-supporting pundits in Peladeau's medias repeating his desperate lies and innuendos just make them sound even dumber.

Even if we ignore the weird "Who is Masse's puppetmaster line", the PQ's "ZOMG MARXISM!!!" attack doesn't make any sense. The PQ's right has already gone over to the CAQ, so it's a completely ineffective line of attack among the remaining PQ waverers.

[JG]

Excellent Hebert column. PQ's desperation reminds me of BQ's against Layton in the final days of 2011.

Lisé's attacks are pathetic. And all the PQ-supporting pundits in Peladeau's medias repeating his desperate lies and innuendos just make them sound even dumber.

Even if we ignore the weird "Who is Masse's puppetmaster line", the PQ's "ZOMG MARXISM!!!" attack doesn't make any sense. The PQ's right has already gone over to the CAQ, so it's a completely ineffective line of attack among the remaining PQ waverers.

Yes, I'm really not sure what his the goal of all those attacks. He should be going after CAQ's voters, not QS's. Most of the support PQ lost over the past few years went over to the CAQ, not QS. And I'm really not sure how comparing QS to Soviet Russia is supposed to make those now CAQ-supporting voters go back to PQ.

[adma]

Yes, I'm really not sure what his the goal of all those attacks. He should be going after CAQ's voters, not QS's. Most of the support PQ lost over the past few years went over to the CAQ, not QS. And I'm really not sure how comparing QS to Soviet Russia is supposed to make those now CAQ-supporting voters go back to PQ.

Maybe it's his own seat he's worried about.

[JG]

New Ipsos-La Presse-Global News poll:

PLQ - 30%
CAQ - 30% (-6)
PQ - 20%(+2)
QS - 17%(+5)

Results point toward a CAQ minority government, with a very strong possibility that the PLQ might win the popular vote.

[Jeppe]

Is the CAQ losing support to the QS?

[Oryxslayer]

Is the CAQ losing support to the QS?

Important to note that the last time Ipsos polled was in August, so I think these results are more just a combination of all the September activities. September saw the CAQ drop in favor of PLQ and PQ.

Also, where are my weekly pollsters- mainstreet, Leger, etc? Since debate three, the only polls released have been a new pollster with no past results to compare it to, and this, which just captures the September movement. I want to know the effects of debate three!

[JG]

Is the CAQ losing support to the QS?

Important to note that the last time Ipsos polled was in August, so I think these results are more just a combination of all the September activities. September saw the CAQ drop in favor of PLQ and PQ.

Also, where are my weekly pollsters- mainstreet, Leger, etc? Since debate three, the only polls released have been a new pollster with no past results to compare it to, and this, which just captures the September movement. I want to know the effects of debate three!

Jean-Marc Léger said on twitter that they were doing their final poll of the campaign right now. I assume the results will be out by friday or saturday.

[Oryxslayer]

I have been taking a look around at media and it appears everyone is warning of a minority government or how the New Brunswick election results have raised the topic of non-FPTP SMD systems to the forefront. However, I suspect we are all underselling just how geographically packed the Lib vote is, and how far the Libs have fallen with Francos compared to 2014. Last night I created a swing model but used the Franco/Allo numbers, compared them to 2014, and then plugged in that tied Ipsos poll.

Well, the results are bleak. Despite a tied topline, CAP are 5 seats from a majority, and I suspect that's undershooting them for two reasons. One, the PQ vote is collapsing unequally. Its more in favor of to QS on the island, and more towards CAQ in the rest of the province. Two, CAQ did horribly in the periphery in 2014, places like Bas-Saint-Laurent and Côte-Nord. PQ was the only Non-Lib horse to back in hose places last time, but now I suspect the CAQ are going to break through.

[Poirot]

Is the CAQ losing support to the QS?

Important to note that the last time Ipsos polled was in August, so I think these results are more just a combination of all the September activities. September saw the CAQ drop in favor of PLQ and PQ.

Also, where are my weekly pollsters- mainstreet, Leger, etc? Since debate three, the only polls released have been a new pollster with no past results to compare it to, and this, which just captures the September movement. I want to know the effects of debate three!

If what I saw reported is true, Mainstreet latest numbres are CAQ 31, PLQ 28, PQ 20, QS 17. Before the debate PQ was at 23% and the first two at 28% or 30%. In the days following the debate PQ had a big drop but climbed tback o 20%. QS went to 19% before a slight pulled back.  CAQ has climbed back over 30%.

We might have a majority government with a third of the vote share. CAQ might gain in the last days. The change vote knows where to go, all the people who want other people than Liberals governing, and the voters who like to be on the winner's side, and if the media narrative is it is a tight race (because of vote share) and Liberals could still win, could push more people to CAQ. 

[RogueBeaver]

Final Leger poll here: 32/30/19/17. CAQ right at the majority threshold.

[Poirot]

Léger's francophone numbers: CAQ 37, PQ 24, QS 20, PLQ 17

Ipsos

CAQ 32
PLQ 31
PQ 18
QS 16
Others 3

Franco: CAQ 38, PQ 21, PLQ 19, QS 19

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/quebec-election-ipsos-poll-shows-caq-liberals-neck-and-neck

Mainstreet

CAQ 31.5
PLQ 29
PQ 19.5
QS 16.3

Franco: CAQ 36, PQ 24, PLQ 20, QS 19

In some ridings to watch, thery have Sherbrooke as a 4 way race with 1.5% difference in their last riding poll. Rouyn-Noranda had QS with 1% lead over CAQ and PQ in 3 way race. Rimouski, CAQ had a small lead over PQ incumbent. Jonquière is also a race CAQ with PQ incumbent. Pointe-aux-Trembles best chance for CAQ to win on Montreal island. Laval-des-Rapides usually votes with the winner, had CAQ with a small lead. Rosemont's last poll had Lisée first but I don't know when it was made.

They speak about the last debate. In the daily tracking the nine days before the last debate saw gaings for the PQ. Lisée did well in the first debate and Legault spent many days explaining the immigration policy. The day of the last debate the PQ polled at 25% and CAQ was over 27%. In the sample after the debate PQ dropped 8% (tweet posted in the thread) to 17% with QS 19% and CAQ at 30%. THE PQ-CAQ gap went from over 2% to 13%.

It also says in the report half of the undecideds lean CAQ.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/quebec-2018-une-election-de-changement-de-generation/

[Oryxslayer]

So it looks like late deciders are breaking CAQ. Didn't someone say that the PLQ usually gets a late boost because swing voters end up put off by the PQs separatist rhetoric? If so, then that is another difference between the old days and 2018.

[MaxQue]

So it looks like late deciders are breaking CAQ. Didn't someone say that the PLQ usually gets a late boost because swing voters end up put off by the PQs separatist rhetoric? If so, then that is another difference between the old days.

It's not a late boost shown in polls, it's more like them doing better in actual results than in polls. We'll only know on Monday.

[parochial boy]

I mean, on those franco numbers it seems like PLQ are going to get completely obliterated outside of Montréal/Laval/the South shore?

[MaxQue]

I mean, on those franco numbers it seems like PLQ are going to get completely obliterated outside of Montréal/Laval/the South shore?

They could hold random ridings (like Magdalen Islands) and come in the middle in 3 and 4 way races.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean, on those franco numbers it seems like PLQ are going to get completely obliterated outside of Montréal/Laval/the South shore?

Don't forget Outaouais.

[jaichind]

When does polls close ? I assume 8PM EST?  I recall back in 2015 federal elections part of Quebec is in the Atlantic Time Zone so polls close earlier there.  Is that going to be true this time? If so will we start seeing results as early as 7AM EST ?

[Poirot]

Not sure how to read Mainstreet data. They put three set of numbers. The last set is the one used in their poll results. It's decided and inclined. When the text says he finds about half of undecided lean CAQ, this should be factored in in the decided and inclined numbers. That set of numbers has no undecided line.

Looking at their first set of numbers, the undecided are 8.2%. There are more undecided female than male (11.6% vs 4.6%). They have the CAQ leading the feamle by 1% over the PLQ. I think female in two party system were more Liberal.

By age the undecided are older, not many under 35, 9% from 35 to 64 and 10.5% over 65. Liberals lead CAQ by over 7% in the over 65 category. CAQ lead PLQ by 2.5% among the 50-64 and by 10% among the 35-50.
By region there is no big difference with Quebec City having the highest number. By language it's more non-francophone (11% undecided) than francophone (7.6%) and non-francophone are mostly Liberal.     

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1046515777333915648

[JG]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1046515777333915648

I hope they are overestimating the CAQ. I don't think I can bear the thought of 4 years of a CAQ majority.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1046515777333915648

I hope they are overestimating the CAQ. I don't think I can bear the thought of 4 years of a CAQ majority.

Well when the CAQ has 13 point lead with Francophones (20 points over PLQ) and >100 of 125 seats are overwhelmingly Francophone...its not hard to see how the CAQ easily get their majority. Though it is really down to the marginal seats now about whether its a CAQ majority or minority - and there are a lot of them.

[Hatman 🍁]

ridiculous to think a party could win a majority with less than 1/3 of the vote

[VPH]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1046515777333915648

I hope they are overestimating the CAQ. I don't think I can bear the thought of 4 years of a CAQ majority.

Oh God I hope this doesn't happen. Rn I think it'll be a CAQ minority.

[BigSkyBob]

Rumor of breaking news: NAFTA renegotiation finalized, dairy barriers to be lowered.


Political fallout?

[Oryxslayer]

Rumor of breaking news: NAFTA renegotiation finalized, dairy barriers to be lowered.


Political fallout?

Probably hurts the Lib's, since they are the incumbent government who 'allowed this to happen,' despite having little to no influence over negotiations. Lisée for example earlier today argued that the PLQ oversaw another sacrifice of Quebec for the good of Ontario.