Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[Tintrlvr]

Seats not yet called:

Abitibi-Ouest: CAQ ahead over PQ
Bourget: CAQ ahead over PQ and QS (three-way race)
Duplessis: PQ ahead over CAQ
Gaspe: PLQ ahead over PQ
Iles-de-la-Madeleine: PQ ahead over PLQ
Laval-des-Rapides: PLQ ahead over CAQ
Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue: QS ahead over CAQ
Ungava: PQ ahead over CAQ and PLQ (three-way race)

PQ is in a lot of competitive races still. They could go as high as 13 seats if they sweep their remaining close races. Bourget is their last shot to win anything in Montreal.

[Tintrlvr]

PLQ wins Gaspe by 132 votes over the PQ with all polls reporting. Could potentially be in recount territory (not sure what that would be?) but seems unlikely that a recount would change anything.

[King of Kensington]

So did that "progressive federalist" boutique party NDPQ crack 0.5% of the vote?

[Tintrlvr]

So did that "progressive federalist" boutique party NDPQ crack 0.5% of the vote?

Even where they ran former MPs (like Pauline Ayala in Rosemont), they seem to have gotten joke results. Haven't seen province-wide totals, though; 0.5% is still plausible.

[VPH]

A few quick observations:

1. QS really overperformed. They're less than 2% away from winning Bourget, which wasn't even on the map for them. They won two Quebec seats, Sherbrooke, and are leading in Rouyn-Noranda. QS blew the PLQ out of the water in "tossup" Laurier-Dorion. Wow.

2. PLQ performance in rural Quebec was absolutely brutal. Finishing 4th in some of these ridings.

3. Matane-Matapedia. What the hell?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

So did that "progressive federalist" boutique party NDPQ crack 0.5% of the vote?

yes they are at 0.56% of the vote currently

[King of Kensington]

So did that "progressive federalist" boutique party NDPQ crack 0.5% of the vote?

Even where they ran former MPs (like Pauline Ayala in Rosemont), they seem to have gotten joke results. Haven't seen province-wide totals, though; 0.5% is still plausible.

They are a joke.  People on the Left backed QS regardless of their position on the national question, while hardcore federalists backed the PLQ.

[Oryxslayer]

Lisée continues to blame QS, claiming that the Sovereigntists could have won if QS had only accepted PQs offer. At the same time, he uses language that tries to reach out to QS though...

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

PQ now down to 9 seats, falling into 4th

[King of Kensington]

Lisée continues to blame QS, claiming that the Sovereigntists could have won if QS had only accepted PQs offer. At the same time, he uses language that tries to reach out to QS though...

lol

[Oryxslayer]

Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue got called to the QS a while ago by 506 votes. This reach seat is the capstone on a great night for the QS. One theme that could be taken away from tonight was that once the Sovereignty issue was stripped away, the old parties had nothing to stand on.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is the party who won the province version  of the Conservative Party

[Tintrlvr]

Is the party who won the province version  of the Conservative Party

No. CAQ is a moderate right-populist Quebec nationalist (but not, at least openly, pro-independence) party. There is no close equivalent to the Conservative Party provincially in Quebec.

[Tintrlvr]

There are two seats left uncalled currently (Bourget and Laval-des-Rapides), but there are only a handful of polls outstanding in them (1 in Bourget, 2 in Laval-des-Rapides), so I'm willing to call them for the CAQ and PLQ, respectively. Which means the final seat totals are:

CAQ: 74
PLQ: 32
QS: 10
PQ: 9

Popular vote totals will move a bit still. QS has been gaining on the PQ all night and are now within 1% of the PQ's popular vote total at a bit over 16% (PQ a bit over 17%, which is worse than the party's popular vote when it was a marginal party way back in 1970 and an unmitigated disaster); does not seem likely that the QS can catch the PQ, but in the end they are at least quite close in addition to pipping the PQ in seats. PLQ is currently a hair below 25%, and it seems likely but not certain to stay that way, which any way you slice it is a really embarrassing popular vote total for them, too (although their votes were somewhat more efficient this time than they have been in the past; they won fewer seats on a lot more votes in 1976, e.g.). CAQ currently rounding down to 37% for the first majority with less than 40% of the vote in Quebec.

[jaichind]

So where did the QS surge come from? I assume from PQ.   If so then most of the CAQ vote share increase must have came from QLP.  I assume this is mostly center-right lean Federalist voters that was attracted to CAQ based on their economic and/or social positions and felt that CAQ was moderate enough on the sovereignist issue to vote for it.

[Hatman 🍁]

A few notes:
- Worst showing for the Liberals and the PQ EVER
- lol Magdalen Islands
- Laval-des-Rapides loses its bellwether status
- Beautiful to see the PQ in fourth
- Interesting random second place finishes for the QS in rural Quebec. Also they finished 2nd in D'Arcy-McGee
- The polling was a bit off; perhaps indicative last minute surge from the Liberals to the PQ?

[DC Al Fine]

- The polling was a bit off; perhaps indicative last minute surge from the Liberals to the PQ?

Do you mean PLQ to CAQ? PQ met or slightly underperformed the polls I think.

[Former President tack50]

Come to think about it, since Papineau apparently voted for CAQ (and not exactly by a close margin either), is Trudeau at any risk of losing his seat in the federal election?

[the506]

Come to think about it, since Papineau apparently voted for CAQ (and not exactly by a close margin either), is Trudeau at any risk of losing his seat in the federal election?

Different ridings, same name. The provincial Papineau is a rural riding in the Outouais.

[DC Al Fine]

Come to think about it, since Papineau apparently voted for CAQ (and not exactly by a close margin either), is Trudeau at any risk of losing his seat in the federal election?

Different ridings, same name. The provincial Papineau is a rural riding in the Outouais.

Yet another reason why naming ridings after people is silly.

[Hatman 🍁]

- The polling was a bit off; perhaps indicative last minute surge from the Liberals to the PQ?

Do you mean PLQ to CAQ? PQ met or slightly underperformed the polls I think.

Yeah, that's what I meant. I'm severely under-slept.

[Hatman 🍁]

Come to think about it, since Papineau apparently voted for CAQ (and not exactly by a close margin either), is Trudeau at any risk of losing his seat in the federal election?

Different ridings, same name. The provincial Papineau is a rural riding in the Outouais.

Yet another reason why naming ridings after people is silly.

Isn't Trudeau's riding named after the street?

Anyway, more to the point: the southern half of Trudeau's riding did vote QS.  It was an NDP target for a very brief period of time.

[King of Kensington]

Is the party who won the province version  of the Conservative Party

No. CAQ is a moderate right-populist Quebec nationalist (but not, at least openly, pro-independence) party. There is no close equivalent to the Conservative Party provincially in Quebec.

There are not moderate by Quebec or general Canadian standards.  Their platform included Tim Hudak-style austerity with anti-immigrant populism. 

[Velasco]

Is the party who won the province version  of the Conservative Party

No. CAQ is a moderate right-populist Quebec nationalist (but not, at least openly, pro-independence) party. There is no close equivalent to the Conservative Party provincially in Quebec.

There are not moderate by Quebec or general Canadian standards.  Their platform included Tim Hudak-style austerity with anti-immigrant populism. 

The CAQ is something like the heir of the old ADQ, which was a right-wing populist party. If I'm not wrong the CAQ is more moderate than the ADQ, but not necessarily moderate in the context of Quebec and Canada. Right?

Also, I think there is a small provincial party called PCQ. Maybe that party is the equivalent kf the federal PC, if only for the shared word "conservative".

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/drainvillepm/status/1047129059916963840