Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[Poirot]

I think electoral reform has been usually in the PQ policies. The Liberal minister for democratic reform said we are well served by the current system.

With Option Nationale now part of Québec Solidaire, QS has a new logo:


This could create nomination battles between former ON and QS candidates in Taschereau and Jean Lesage ridings.

[Poirot]

Mainstreet just out with a poll for Quebec, have one for New Brunswick and Ontario tomorrow.

CAQ - 32%
PLQ - 31%
PQ - 18% (whoa! this is disastrous for them)
QS - 15%

CAQ has a 6 point lead amongst Francophones.  A strong tightening in the Quebec City region, but CAQ surges ahead in the rest of Quebec.  PLQ well out in front in the Montreal region with the CAQ in a distant second.  So it seems the PLQ rebounding a bit, but PQ in a death spiral and CAQ gaining primarily from them.  Could this be the beginning of the end of the PQ?

If PQ ends under 20% and QS over 10%, this will relaunch the merger/alliance talks.

Might be tough as PQ is very much a party with largely aging members while QS is much more youth oriented.  QS support is strongest in the urban core working class areas while PQ is more in the rural periphery of the province such as Gaspésie, Abitibi, Saguenay (they could even lose that with these numbers) and North Shore.  Still both are separatists and left leaning, but probably the best thing would be let the PQ wither away and instead have the CAQ for the right, Liberals for the middle, and QS for the left, otherwise similar to other provinces, just different labels.

The electoral alliance was refused by QS, I imagine for a future alliance or merger to be accepted the new deal would have to be more left wing, closer to them. It might be too far from  the center. It reminds me of the left wing version of the progressive conservative federally. Conservatives divide the right wiing vote and then regroup in a party that is further from the center and less appealing to the general public.

[the506]

Jean-Martin Aussant is back in the PQ, which is kind of like jumping from the Titanic to the Andrea Doria.

http://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/02/21/jean-martin-aussant-annoncera-son-retour-au-pq-jeudi_a_23367846/

[Tintrlvr]

Mainstreet just out with a poll for Quebec, have one for New Brunswick and Ontario tomorrow.

CAQ - 32%
PLQ - 31%
PQ - 18% (whoa! this is disastrous for them)
QS - 15%

CAQ has a 6 point lead amongst Francophones.  A strong tightening in the Quebec City region, but CAQ surges ahead in the rest of Quebec.  PLQ well out in front in the Montreal region with the CAQ in a distant second.  So it seems the PLQ rebounding a bit, but PQ in a death spiral and CAQ gaining primarily from them.  Could this be the beginning of the end of the PQ?

If PQ ends under 20% and QS over 10%, this will relaunch the merger/alliance talks.

Might be tough as PQ is very much a party with largely aging members while QS is much more youth oriented.  QS support is strongest in the urban core working class areas while PQ is more in the rural periphery of the province such as Gaspésie, Abitibi, Saguenay (they could even lose that with these numbers) and North Shore.  Still both are separatists and left leaning, but probably the best thing would be let the PQ wither away and instead have the CAQ for the right, Liberals for the middle, and QS for the left, otherwise similar to other provinces, just different labels.

The electoral alliance was refused by QS, I imagine for a future alliance or merger to be accepted the new deal would have to be more left wing, closer to them. It might be too far from  the center. It reminds me of the left wing version of the progressive conservative federally. Conservatives divide the right wiing vote and then regroup in a party that is further from the center and less appealing to the general public.

Part of the problem is clearly that the PQ does not view the QS as an equal and tends to offer "alliances" where the QS runs in just a handful of seats while the PQ gets everything else. Given current polling trends, the QS could end up with more seats than the PQ at the next election...

[Poirot]

There was an Ipsos poll published in La Presse in early February that doesn't seem to mentioned in this thread.

CAQ 34%
PLQ 30%
PQ 23%
QS 8%

Franco: CAQ 40, PQ 29, PLQ 18, QS 8
Non-Franco: PLQ 74, CAQ 12, QS 7, PQ 1

61% time to change government vs 25% keep it

Over the last three years:
economy improved 53% vs 39% worsened
education system improved 33% vs 56% worsened
Health system improved 25% vs 70% worsened 

https://www.ipsos.com/fr-ca/news-polls/la-caq-se-classe-en-tete-des-intentions-de-vote

[Poirot]

Léger poll done in the last days of February.

CAQ 37%
PLQ 26%
PQ 22%
QS 9%
Conservateur 2%, NDPQ 2% Vert 1%

LINK to PDF result
http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Rapport%20Politique%20Provinciale%20-%20MARS%202018%20FINALv.pdf

What is interesting is Léger mentions small parties. It soesn't get full breakdown details for all parties for age, region or language.

Franco: CAQ 42, PQ 27, PLQ 16, QS 11
Non Franco: PLQ 66, CAQ 15, QS 5, PQ 2

This poll has less people satisfied with the government than in their January poll. 22% are satisfied vs 71% not

Best premier: Legault 27%, Couillard 15%, Lisée 14%, Massé 6%

70% want a change of government vs 18% continue with same team
party representing change the most: 30% CAQ, 15% QS, 12% PQ, 9% PLQ

who will win next election?
CAQ 36, PLQ 25, PQ 10, QS 2 (41% franco said CAQ, 44% non-franco said PLQ)

66% think the health minister did a bad job over the last three years vs 19% good job

Over the last 15 years 12% think the health care system has improved, 31% stayed the same, 53% deteriorated

Those who used the health care system, 80% are satisgied with quality of care   

[lilTommy]

Some nominations:

Journalist Vincent Marissal is running for QS in Rosemont; notable since he will go up against PQ leader Jean-François Lisée. This was already a top 3 seat for QS I believe

NPDQ leader Raphael Fortin, wisely so, will run in the Montreal riding of Verdun. This is one of the few Montreal ridings where I think the NPDQ could do very well, perhaps even win. The others I thought were Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne or Notre-Dame-de-Grace. Huge long shot, but a good riding to start in. 

[EPG]

What's the deal with NDPQ? Why bother?

[Poirot]

I think NDPQ is to give a choice for progressive federalists who absolutely need the two elements. I don't remember hearing about them since they chose a leader. It will be difficult for them to get their message out.

The federal NDP isn't officially backing NDPQ because it could vex their QS base,

The QS nominations in Quebec City were won by the two ex-Option Nationale candidates over the last two QS candidates in their respective ridings. Former ON leader Sol Zanetti in Jean-Lesage and Catherine Dorion in Taschereau. QS has said Taschereau is now their biggest riding for membership with 850 (Nadeau-Dubois in Gouin has 800).

[Poirot]

Mainstreet did a poll Feb 28 and March 1st with Interactive voice recording. Decided and leaning results, margin of error 3%.

CAQ 32%
PLQ 27.8%
PQ 19.8%
QS 10.8%
Con 4.!%
NDPQ 2,5%
Other 3%

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/caq-opens-four-point-lead-couillard-liberals/

[mileslunn]

I think NDPQ is to give a choice for progressive federalists who absolutely need the two elements. I don't remember hearing about them since they chose a leader. It will be difficult for them to get their message out.

The federal NDP isn't officially backing NDPQ because it could vex their QS base,

The QS nominations in Quebec City were won by the two ex-Option Nationale candidates over the last two QS candidates in their respective ridings. Former ON leader Sol Zanetti in Jean-Lesage and Catherine Dorion in Taschereau. QS has said Taschereau is now their biggest riding for membership with 850 (Nadeau-Dubois in Gouin has 800).

Quebec may have a provincial NDP and provincial Conservative Party but I doubt either will go far.  Other than difference on separatism, I suspect most NDP supporters will for the Quebec Solidaire which has a similar base and lots of overlap.  Also if the PLQ loses and CAQ wins, wouldn't be surprised if the PLQ moves to the left similar to the Ontario Liberals and federal Liberals thus making them more palatable to NDP supporters.

I suspect most Francophone Conservatives will go for the CAQ which is already centre-right as opposed to Quebec Conservatives.  Likewise with the PLQ being fiscally conservative, they might get some federal Conservatives although probably mostly amongst the Anglophone and Allophone Conservative voters not so much amongst Francophone Conservatives.

Even federal Liberals won't necessarily go PLQ as federal Liberals are polling higher in Quebec and the two despite sharing the same name lean in different directions with PLQ being more fiscally conservative and federal Liberals more on the progressive side.

But when it comes to provincial NDP and provincial Conservatives I suspect they will win no seats and probably be a lot like the Saskatchewan Progressive Conservatives, BC Conservatives, or Saskatchewan Liberals; get a few percentage points but not amount to very much.

[EPG]

Sorry, someone is also going to have to explain to me the Québec Conservatives.

[_]

So these provincial parties like the NDPQ and Quebec Conservatives exist mostly because Federal Parties like to have a party in all provinces, even if they won't win anything?

[Hatman 🍁]

So these provincial parties like the NDPQ and Quebec Conservatives exist mostly because Federal Parties like to have a party in all provinces, even if they won't win anything?

Just the NDP (though they've tolerated not having a provincial party for decades; this is a new construct). The provincial conservatives in Quebec are not affiliated with the federal Tories. Most federal Tories support the CAQ.

[parochial boy]

So these provincial parties like the NDPQ and Quebec Conservatives exist mostly because Federal Parties like to have a party in all provinces, even if they won't win anything?

Just the NDP (though they've tolerated not having a provincial party for decades; this is a new construct). The provincial conservatives in Quebec are not affiliated with the federal Tories. Most federal Tories support the CAQ.

So the Conservatives are for people who listen to radio poubelle?

[mileslunn]

For the NDP in Quebec, since the PQ and QS are social democratic in their policies, the NDP never really bothered as well as most unions backed the PQ.  But with millennials being fairly progressive in Quebec yet mostly federalist there is somewhat a void if you are a left wing federalist.  The PLQ and CAQ both lean to the right while QS and PQ want to separate.  Also until recently people in Quebec didn't vote along left vs. right lines, they voted along sovereignty vs. federalism lines.  So if a separatist you voted PQ no matter where you stood on the spectrum and if a federalist you voted PLQ regardless.  Only with the decline of sovereignty has this changed which is quite recent.

In terms of Conservatives, BC, Saskatchewan, and Quebec all have conservative parties on paper, but most Conservatives vote BC Liberals, Saskatchewan Party or CAQ in their respective provinces.  To be fair the Liberals are also pretty much dead in both Alberta and Saskatchewan but there most go NDP in Alberta or Alberta Party and in Saskatchewan, Blue Liberals go Saskatchewan Party while progressives ones go NDP.

[mileslunn]

So these provincial parties like the NDPQ and Quebec Conservatives exist mostly because Federal Parties like to have a party in all provinces, even if they won't win anything?

Just the NDP (though they've tolerated not having a provincial party for decades; this is a new construct). The provincial conservatives in Quebec are not affiliated with the federal Tories. Most federal Tories support the CAQ.

So the Conservatives are for people who listen to radio poubelle?

radio poubelle is quite popular in the regions of Quebec and Quebec City.

[Poirot]

So these provincial parties like the NDPQ and Quebec Conservatives exist mostly because Federal Parties like to have a party in all provinces, even if they won't win anything?

Just the NDP (though they've tolerated not having a provincial party for decades; this is a new construct). The provincial conservatives in Quebec are not affiliated with the federal Tories. Most federal Tories support the CAQ.

Is the new NDPQ affiliated with the NDP? I mean officially, like provincial NDP members are also members of the federal NDP? It doesn't seem to be the case with the NDPQ.

If I can trust wikipedia, the Conservative party of Quenec was created in 2009 by two former Union Nationale. After some changes in party leader, the current leader I think was working on the policy for the ADQ. He's more libertarian, against corporate subsidy, state intervention. Maxime Bernier during his leadership race told them if he would try to help them win a seat. 
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_Quebec_(2009%E2%80%93present)

For now they are fringe parties with "famous" names. Not sure if they will have candidates in all ridings.

[Poirot]

Jean-Martin Aussant is back in the PQ, which is kind of like jumping from the Titanic to the Andrea Doria.

http://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/02/21/jean-martin-aussant-annoncera-son-retour-au-pq-jeudi_a_23367846/

Aussant wants the nomination in Pointe-aux-Trembles. He has the support of retiring MNA. The problem for him is Maxime Laporte declared for the nomination right after the retirement announcement. Laporte succeeded Mario Beaulieu has head of the Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste. Beaulieu the local MP, supports him as is former premier Bernard Landry.

[Poirot]

The CAQ doesn't face nomination battles because candidates are picked by the leader. Some have experience getting elected.

In Pointe-aux-Trembles they have Chantal Rouleau who has been re-elected last November as mayor of Rivière-des-Prairies - Pointe-aux-Trembles borough. Legault said his internal poll had her neck and neck with the PQ.

In Verchères Suzanne Dansereau was mayor of Contrecoeur before retiring last November.

In Dubuc François Tremblay has been a councillor in Saguenay and president of La Baie borough. He chose not to run in the last municipal election.

André Bachand in Richmond. He was a PC MP for Richmond-Arthabaska and later served as ambassador to UNESCO.

[IceAgeComing]

The New Democrats were traditionally a fringe party in Quebec - prior to Mulclair winning Outremont in a 2007 by-election and then the Orange surge in 2011 the NDP had only ever won two seats in Quebec either Federally or Provincially: Chambly in 1990 (Phil Edmonston who won was a Quebec Nationalist and fell out with the party on questions related to Quebec's place in Canada and devolution of power and elected not to stand in 1993) and the provincial seat of Rouyn-Noranda in 1944 (David Côté won with 21% of the vote on a five way split between the CCF; the Bloc Populaire, the Liberals, the Union Nationale and Social Credit so hardly a ringing endorsement) and at their lowest would finish behind parties like the Rhinoceros Party in large chunks of Quebec.

The reason why there wasn't a provincial arm of the party for so long was that when you are a small wing of a party its much easier for entryism to happen and that's what happened, in the late 80s they were basically taken over by sovereigntists and they split from the provincial arm over a mostly constitutional stuff (support for Quebec's language policy and the provincial wings support for Quebec nationalism generally was the main thing, them calling on the NDP to withdraw from a by-election in favour of Giles Duceppe is an example of this) with the Quebec NDP electing not to bother running at provincial level and setting up a Quebec wing of the party just for Federal Elections with members able to support who they like for Provincial elections - which incidentally was the case for the early years of the NDPs existence after a similar split.  The NDPQ focused on provincial elections without any success for a few years, then became the PDS which merged into the UFP which merged into QS and that's when they actually started winning seats.

Personally I think that its too late for them to do this: the NDP is trending downwards federally and that doesn't strike me as a good time to go after provincial votes especially considering the QS already exist.  They might try and go after Federalist left voters but, well, I think that doing that would be a bit of a fools errand - there's a reason why parties of the Left in Quebec have gone in the nationalist direction.

[Hatman 🍁]

So these provincial parties like the NDPQ and Quebec Conservatives exist mostly because Federal Parties like to have a party in all provinces, even if they won't win anything?

Just the NDP (though they've tolerated not having a provincial party for decades; this is a new construct). The provincial conservatives in Quebec are not affiliated with the federal Tories. Most federal Tories support the CAQ.

Is the new NDPQ affiliated with the NDP? I mean officially, like provincial NDP members are also members of the federal NDP? It doesn't seem to be the case with the NDPQ.

If I can trust wikipedia, the Conservative party of Quenec was created in 2009 by two former Union Nationale. After some changes in party leader, the current leader I think was working on the policy for the ADQ. He's more libertarian, against corporate subsidy, state intervention. Maxime Bernier during his leadership race told them if he would try to help them win a seat. 
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_Quebec_(2009%E2%80%93present)

For now they are fringe parties with "famous" names. Not sure if they will have candidates in all ridings.

I believe members of the NDPQ are also members of the federal NDP.

[mileslunn]

So these provincial parties like the NDPQ and Quebec Conservatives exist mostly because Federal Parties like to have a party in all provinces, even if they won't win anything?

Just the NDP (though they've tolerated not having a provincial party for decades; this is a new construct). The provincial conservatives in Quebec are not affiliated with the federal Tories. Most federal Tories support the CAQ.

Is the new NDPQ affiliated with the NDP? I mean officially, like provincial NDP members are also members of the federal NDP? It doesn't seem to be the case with the NDPQ.

If I can trust wikipedia, the Conservative party of Quenec was created in 2009 by two former Union Nationale. After some changes in party leader, the current leader I think was working on the policy for the ADQ. He's more libertarian, against corporate subsidy, state intervention. Maxime Bernier during his leadership race told them if he would try to help them win a seat. 
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_Quebec_(2009%E2%80%93present)

For now they are fringe parties with "famous" names. Not sure if they will have candidates in all ridings.

I believe members of the NDPQ are also members of the federal NDP.

Now that Ekos has done an Ontario poll, will they do a Quebec one?  I would be interested to see what they are showing as most show the CAQ ahead now but still questionable whether they would get a majority or not.

[Poirot]

There has been an increase of migrants crossing the border. It is predicted it could rise again in the coming months. This could happen during the summer pre-campaign. 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/quebec-sees-surge-in-border-crossings-600-entered-last-weekend-1.3873597

The Quebec government is asking the federal government to pay $146 million for expenses caused by the migrant crisis.

The religious symbols debate reappeared when Montreal mayor siad she was open to religious head covering by police officers. Provincial opposition parties are against (the idea that people in coercive function - judge, police officer, prison guard - should not wear religious symbols.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-mayor-supports-allowing-police-to-wear-religious-head-coverings-1.4604502

[Hatman 🍁]

So these provincial parties like the NDPQ and Quebec Conservatives exist mostly because Federal Parties like to have a party in all provinces, even if they won't win anything?

Just the NDP (though they've tolerated not having a provincial party for decades; this is a new construct). The provincial conservatives in Quebec are not affiliated with the federal Tories. Most federal Tories support the CAQ.

Is the new NDPQ affiliated with the NDP? I mean officially, like provincial NDP members are also members of the federal NDP? It doesn't seem to be the case with the NDPQ.

If I can trust wikipedia, the Conservative party of Quenec was created in 2009 by two former Union Nationale. After some changes in party leader, the current leader I think was working on the policy for the ADQ. He's more libertarian, against corporate subsidy, state intervention. Maxime Bernier during his leadership race told them if he would try to help them win a seat. 
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_Quebec_(2009%E2%80%93present)

For now they are fringe parties with "famous" names. Not sure if they will have candidates in all ridings.

I believe members of the NDPQ are also members of the federal NDP.

Now that Ekos has done an Ontario poll, will they do a Quebec one?  I would be interested to see what they are showing as most show the CAQ ahead now but still questionable whether they would get a majority or not.

I think we're mostly focused on Ontario right now.