Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 04:14:37 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 18
Author Topic: Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018  (Read 43928 times)
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 02, 2017, 10:41:30 AM »

In just under a year Quebec goes to the polls for their provincial election.  My thoughts on things now are as follows.

PLQ (Liberals): Have a slight lead in the polls, but are trailing amongst Francophones who make up the majority of the population and dominate most ridings.  Also Philippe Couillard doesn't have great approval ratings although with a healthy surplus there is reason to believe they should rebound somewhat as a lot of the disapproval comes from earlier austerity.  Also the PLQ does strongest amongst older voters so as we've seen in the past, polls could be underestimating their support.

Parti Quebecois: Are in third place now in most polls and somewhat struggling as support for sovereignty is now under 30%.  A lot will depend if they talk a lot about having another referendum which will hurt their chances or do they focus more on other issues.  Also Quebec Solidaire is polling in the mid to high teens so pushing them down will be necessary if they wish to win.  Still wouldn't rule out them winning, but I think the odds of them winning are long.  Opposition perhaps.

CAQ: Doing reasonably well in the polls and also amongst Francophones Francois Legault ranks as best premier, but their support is quite soft so tough to say how they will do.  Could possibly win, but just as easily their support could taper off as we've seen them ride high in the polls before as well as with their predecessor the ADQ only to never materialize. 

Quebec Solidaire: Doing surprisingly well in the polls placing in the mid to high teens, however asides from the East side of Montreal unlikely to win many seats.  Also their vote is heavily skewed towards millennials so unless there is a strong turnout amongst them polls maybe overestimating their support.  In past elections they have generally done worse than polls have predicted.

What is everyone else's thoughts on this?
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2017, 01:40:27 PM »

Last PQ congress agreed to not hold a referendum in their first term, so I would assume their campaign wouldn't be about that.
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,269
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2017, 02:26:15 PM »

Quebec Solidaire is polling unusually high. Any reason behind the recent increase?
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2017, 04:28:31 PM »

Last PQ congress agreed to not hold a referendum in their first term, so I would assume their campaign wouldn't be about that.

Probably a wise move as every time this is brought up it hurts their numbers.  Both PLQ and CAQ are centre-right so better for them to focus on centre-left voters whether they are separatist or federalist.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2017, 04:29:36 PM »

Last PQ congress agreed to not hold a referendum in their first term, so I would assume their campaign wouldn't be about that.

Probably a wise move as every time this is brought up it hurts their numbers.  Both PLQ and CAQ are centre-right so better for them to focus on centre-left voters whether they are separatist or federalist.

Almost all of it has come from their strong support amongst millennials.  They are very left wing party so much as you saw Corbyn, Sanders, and Melenchon all do well amongst millennials same thing.  That being said they often poll in double digits in between elections, but on election day their strong numbers for whatever reason rarely seem to materialize.
Logged
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,286


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2017, 05:32:33 PM »
« Edited: October 02, 2017, 05:34:31 PM by Tintrlvr »

Last PQ congress agreed to not hold a referendum in their first term, so I would assume their campaign wouldn't be about that.

Probably a wise move as every time this is brought up it hurts their numbers.  Both PLQ and CAQ are centre-right so better for them to focus on centre-left voters whether they are separatist or federalist.

Almost all of it has come from their strong support amongst millennials.  They are very left wing party so much as you saw Corbyn, Sanders, and Melenchon all do well amongst millennials same thing.  That being said they often poll in double digits in between elections, but on election day their strong numbers for whatever reason rarely seem to materialize.

Assume you meant to respond to MAINEiac. Agree in general, although the QS's polling currently is significantly stronger than pre-2014 (the best they did in any poll 2012-2014 was 11%, but recent polling has them in the mid-teens). That said, I can't see them breaking through province-wide. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve will likely go to the QS (was a surprise last time how close they came), and they have a decent shot at Rosemont as well. Laurier-Dorion is a possibility as well, especially if Sklavounos runs as an independent and splits the PLQ vote.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2017, 05:53:33 PM »

I'd say at least partially due to GND.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2017, 09:16:36 PM »

I'd say at least partially due to GND.

I presume you're answering AF2020's question.

For the uninitiated: GND means
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriel_Nadeau-Dubois
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2017, 03:10:38 PM »

Two more issues on this front.

1.  CAQ picks up normally safe PLQ seat of Louis-Hebert so this would be a sign at the moment at least they are strong in Quebec City and have potential province wide.  And it wasn't even close either.  That being said by-elections are a different animal and sometimes people vote for opposition parties to send a message to the government knowing it won't change the government whereas a general election is a whole different ball park.  The main barrier for the CAQ is you had too many dead zones which are Island of Montreal, Gaspésie region, Saguenay, Outuoais, and Nord du Quebec so without seats there, they have to win big elsewhere to get a majority.

2.  Quebec Solidaire and Option Nationale have merged.  Doubt that will make to big a difference and actually might even hurt them a bit as Quebec Solidaire's support is strongest amongst millennials.  It is strong amongst them as their left wing policies are popular with millennials much like Corbyn's were in the UK and Sanders in the US, they are not voting for them for sovereignty.  Whereas Option Nationale is a sovereigntists first party as opposed to left wing.
Logged
Poirot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,519
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2017, 09:52:24 PM »

Ipsos poll for La Presse. Sample of over 1100 from web panel and 500 by phone.
PLQ 32%, CAQ 28%, PQ 24%, QS 12%

News article and Ipsos release (in French, I don't see it on their website in English)

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201710/19/01-5140629-a-un-an-des-elections-les-astres-salignent-pour-la-caq.php

http://ipsos.ca/fr/2017/10/20/le-parti-liberal-32/

Franco: CAQ 32%, PQ 29%, PLQ 24%, QS 12%
Non-franco : PLQ 61%, CAQ 12%, QS 12%, PQ 7%

I guess the PLQ has room to grow in non-franco.

Greater Montreal: PLQ 36%, PQ 23%, CAQ 22%, QS 13%
Greater Quebec City: CAQ 40%, PLQ 25%, 16% PQ, 14% QS
Other regions: CAQ 32%, PQ and PLQ 27%, QS 11%

Best Premier: Legault 23%, Couillard 20%, Lisée 13%, QS co-leaders 8%

For second choice, 19% opt for CAQ, 17% PQ, 13% QS, 10% PLQ

34% are satisfied with the government
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2017, 10:07:51 PM »

Couillard trying to shake things up with the veil ban? Disgusting prick.

Not good numbers for QS, funny to seem them doing as well with non-Francos as with Fancos.
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2017, 10:13:27 PM »

What would be the most likely seat outside Montreal island to go QS? I would like to see them become a contender in the long term, but it would be crucial for them to get a foothold outside the island to make QS seem credible.
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2017, 10:28:04 PM »

Explain CAQ to me: is it basically like the ADQ?
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2017, 11:27:14 PM »

Couillard trying to shake things up with the veil ban? Disgusting prick.

Not good numbers for QS, funny to seem them doing as well with non-Francos as with Fancos.

Rather to kill the idea, by passing a bill that doesn't work and will have to be amended and will make nationalists look bad.
Media covers it as "the public transit muslim ban", which isn't popular with most people.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2017, 12:46:21 AM »

What would be the most likely seat outside Montreal island to go QS? I would like to see them become a contender in the long term, but it would be crucial for them to get a foothold outside the island to make QS seem credible.

That is the challenge.  If they dropped the whole sovereignty stance I think the Outaoais might be winneable as it is probably the most left wing area off the island, but it is staunchly federalist and thus why it goes it heavily PLQ, but with the PLQ becoming more of a centre-right than centre-left party does leave an opening.  Still probably tough.  The thing they have most going for them is strong potential amongst millennials so if they hold them as they age then they will start picking up elsewhere.  The problem for them is most in their 20s tend to be idealistic and quite open to left wing ideas, but they say once you start paying taxes, buy your first home, get married and have children people tend to become more conservative.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2017, 12:47:04 AM »

Explain CAQ to me: is it basically like the ADQ?

Similar but a bit more moderate so a more modified version of the ADQ.
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2017, 06:09:15 AM »

What would be the most likely seat outside Montreal island to go QS? I would like to see them become a contender in the long term, but it would be crucial for them to get a foothold outside the island to make QS seem credible.

I would guess Taschereau, i.e. Downtown Quebec City.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2017, 11:22:36 PM »

I would guess Taschereau, i.e. Downtown Quebec City.

I was going to make that same guess.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2017, 12:03:24 AM »

I would guess Taschereau, i.e. Downtown Quebec City.

I was going to make that same guess.

Maybe it's a bit different than the rest of the region, but for whatever reason it seems Quebec City is generally more conservative than most of the province.  The ADQ and CAQ have tended to perform better here and certainly federally the Conservatives tend to often get double the support they do in the rest of the province.  Not sure the exact reason for it, but past results suggest that. 
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2017, 12:06:27 AM »

I would guess Taschereau, i.e. Downtown Quebec City.

I was going to make that same guess.

Maybe it's a bit different than the rest of the region, but for whatever reason it seems Quebec City is generally more conservative than most of the province.  The ADQ and CAQ have tended to perform better here and certainly federally the Conservatives tend to often get double the support they do in the rest of the province.  Not sure the exact reason for it, but past results suggest that.  

Well, Taschereau is unlike Quebec City.
Result last time: PQ 32, Lib 30, CAQ 16, QS 15, ON 4.

I think PQ will hold it until Agnès Maltais retires, but after...
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2017, 12:12:53 AM »

Just in general how come most of Quebec City except the core area is fairly conservative compared to the rest of the province?
Logged
VPH
vivaportugalhabs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,682
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2017, 09:17:27 AM »

Just in general how come most of Quebec City except the core area is fairly conservative compared to the rest of the province?
A number of reasons. I blame much of it on conservative talk radio, backlash against what they see as Montreal domination of the province, higher religiosity, less diversity.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2017, 09:46:05 PM »

Politically speaking, Taschereau is to Quebec as Ottawa Centre is to Ottawa.  That might offer a hint.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2017, 10:22:37 PM »

Just in general how come most of Quebec City except the core area is fairly conservative compared to the rest of the province?
A number of reasons. I blame much of it on conservative talk radio, backlash against what they see as Montreal domination of the province, higher religiosity, less diversity.

I've heard their radio is quite conservative than the rest of the province so makes some sense.
Logged
Clyde1998
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2017, 09:21:06 AM »

This poll doesn't seem to have been mentioned by anyone:

Leger (23-25 Oct)Sad CAQ 34 (+6 compared to August); QLP 29 (-3); PQ 20 (-2); QS 12 (NC)

Francophone: CAQ 37; PQ 24; QLP 21; QS 13
Non-Francophone: PLQ 60; CAQ 17; QS 7; PQ 4

Any serious possibility that the CAQ could win the election in terms of votes and, more importantly, in terms of seats?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 18  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.044 seconds with 12 queries.