Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet has their first daily tracker out and interesting Quebec Conservatives and Greens are included but not NDP who are under Autres.  Anyways if you speak French or are willing to rely on a lousy google translator, worth signing up for, but unlike the Ontario one, it is in French only (although pretty sure their surveys include English as without offering in English that would underestimate PLQ support).

[Hatman 🍁]

Are they doing riding polls?

Not sure if I will subscribe this time.

[mileslunn]

Are they doing riding polls?

Not sure if I will subscribe this time.

They will be beginning after Labour Day.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ self-owns with the campaign slogan "seriously."

PLQ enrages local activists in Marquette by replacing veteran backbencher Francois Choquette with a washed-up bad hockey player from 20 years ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger is out: 36/30/18/10. Breguet projects this as 74/40/6/5. 45% of voters could change their minds. Battlegrounds are northern couronne, Estrie and Est-du-Quebec. CAQ leads with seniors.

[DL]

So the biggest question is who comes in third, the PQ or Quebec Solidaire?

[Hatman 🍁]

Do we know why QS has collapsed so much? They were polling in the high teens not too long ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Their highest in Leger was 15 with the GND bump last year but quickly returned to earth. Either way they were limited to the eastern island.

[Hatman 🍁]

Their highest in Leger was 15 with the GND bump last year but quickly returned to earth. Either way they were limited to the eastern island.

Mainstreet had their highest at 19% last year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Quebec_general_election,_2018

[RogueBeaver]

Leger's the only poll I care about here, and even if you used those Mainstreet numbers they were still stuck in eastern Montreal. Hell jack them up to 25% and they're still at 14 seats in Breguet's simulator.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the QS were at 25% all bets are off, and you can throw all of the simulators in the garbage.

[RogueBeaver]

In other news, Legault has found his would-be health minister.

[EPG]

It looks like CAQ have done enough to hold time-for-change voters jusqu'à the election. I expect the further dynamics to be very risky for PQ.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/2closetocall/status/1030976399606046720

[136or142]

How stable are the polls in Quebec normally during their provincial elections vs how much do 'campaigns matter'?

I know the P.Q support collapsed in the 2014 election, but is that degree of volatility normal?

[RogueBeaver]

In 2012 polls were very stable during the writ period. In 2008 PQ overperformed in the final inning because Harper's coalition stance boosted their support. 2007, ADQ went up about 10% in March and they nearly won. 2003: PQ held a small lead during the first half which disappeared when they bungled a controversy about Parizeau repeating his "ethnic vote" statement and ADQ support declined when voters discovered how conservative they were.

[136or142]

In 2012 polls were very stable during the writ period. In 2008 PQ overperformed in the final inning because Harper's coalition stance boosted their support. 2007, ADQ went up about 10% in March and they nearly won. 2003: PQ held a small lead during the first half which disappeared when they bungled a controversy about Parizeau repeating his "ethnic vote" statement and ADQ support declined when voters discovered how conservative they were.

Thanks.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger says for the first time in his 30 years of polling, PLQ has surrendered their econ brand. Legault now owns that issue, PQ keeps culture, Grits immigration and weirdly, education.

Holy crap: the Marquette nomination sh**tshow has turned a safe Grit riding into a close race with CAQ. By safe I mean L+42 last time and since its creation Grits have always won by at least 2-1. SAD!

[Hatman 🍁]

I was wondering why they were even bothering to poll the riding. Now we know.

[UWS]

Do we know why QS has collapsed so much? They were polling in the high teens not too long ago.

If QS collapsed so much, maybe it could be good news for the PQ to rally the sovereignist vote even though it would not be enough votes to win the election.

[UWS]

Leger says for the first time in his 30 years of polling, PLQ has surrendered their econ brand. Legault now owns that issue, PQ keeps culture, Grits immigration and weirdly, education.

Holy crap: the Marquette nomination sh**tshow has turned a safe Grit riding into a close race with CAQ. By safe I mean L+42 last time and since its creation Grits have always won by at least 2-1. SAD!

Of course, Legault’s business experience (he founded Air Transat) gives him an advantage on economic issues.

[DC Al Fine]

Leger says for the first time in his 30 years of polling, PLQ has surrendered their econ brand. Legault now owns that issue, PQ keeps culture, Grits immigration and weirdly, education.

Holy crap: the Marquette nomination sh**tshow has turned a safe Grit riding into a close race with CAQ. By safe I mean L+42 last time and since its creation Grits have always won by at least 2-1. SAD!

Could Ouimet run as an independent? Or has he decided to retire?

[mileslunn]

Leger says for the first time in his 30 years of polling, PLQ has surrendered their econ brand. Legault now owns that issue, PQ keeps culture, Grits immigration and weirdly, education.

Holy crap: the Marquette nomination sh**tshow has turned a safe Grit riding into a close race with CAQ. By safe I mean L+42 last time and since its creation Grits have always won by at least 2-1. SAD!

To be fair Mainstreet's riding polls need to be taken with a grain of salt.  While they can be useful, they've also had some big misses like the one they showed Peter Fassbender easily being re-elected in Surrey-Fleetwood, showing a three way race in University-Rosedale as examples.  That being said their poll for Ottawa West-Nepean was the first one to show NDP had a chance there so unlike most I was not shocked when the NDP led that riding most of the night until the final polls.  That being said I think Mainstreet predicted NDP would win Parry Sound-Muskoka which was a solid PC riding, so I think a poll like this is interesting but lets wait and see if other riding polls corroborate this in nearby ridings or not.  Riding polling I find is a lot more difficult to do than overall polling.  For example with Ekos, while most of the predictions were right and the few wrong were mostly close, the one big miss was Durham where PCs won by 15 points (only one they were this far off in Ontario election) so that is why I would say lets wait and see.

[RogueBeaver]

Grits probably won't lose it, as I said, but margin will be closer than usual. If by some freak accident they do lose (like Martin's similar 2004 fiascoes), then Grits are getting <40 seats.

DC: No, he's retiring.

In other candidate news, Legault did not get the highly respected hospital CEO he wanted for Health. She also turned down a Grit offer.

[RogueBeaver]

Update: Gertrude Bouillon, the hospital CEO I mentioned yesterday, has decided to go with Couillard and run in the Quebec City riding of Jean-Lesage. CAQ is currently poised for a near-sweep of 418.