Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

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After a decade away, New Democratic Party of Quebec elects its leader

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/after-a-decade-away-new-democratic-party-of-quebec-elects-its-leader-1.3769214#_gus&_gucid=&_gup=twitter&_gsc=2LIzZGi

Raphael Fortin, 37, got his start in politics by volunteering for the federal NDP led by Tom Mulcair. According to his LinkedIn page, he also moonlights as a bartender. (CTV Montreal)

[136or142]

Well, the good news about that is it means the threat of separatism will continue to die a slow death.

But the Liberals aren't that far to the left of CAQ, are they?

Outside of the right wing Quebec Identity politics, from my little knowledge of Quebec politics, it reminds me of the old battles between the Federal Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives. Both were essentially centrist political parties.  The liberals were slightly more to the left generally than the P.Cs and the Liberals also campaigned as slightly more to the left than they governed. 

For instance, Pierre Trudeau's governments were regarded as extremely profligate but the Mulroney P.C government didn't do all that much to tackle the deficit either.

[136or142]

Well, the good news about that is it means the threat of separatism will continue to die a slow death.

But the Liberals aren't that far to the left of CAQ, are they?

Both are actually slightly right of centre at the moment.  The PLQ unlike the Ontario Liberals or federal Liberals are fiscally conservative in terms of believing in balanced budgets and lower taxes.  In fact under Charest and Couillard, they were probably more like the BC Liberals than federal or Ontario Liberals although I suspect if they lose to the CAQ their next leader will be more left wing thus more like the OLP and federal counterparts.  The CAQ is not as right wing as the federal Tories, Ontario PCs, or UCP, but still definitely leans to the right.  The one area where they are to the right of most parties elsewhere in Canada is immigration, but that is an issue Quebecers in general have always been more conservative on.  In a lot of ways, the CAQ is like your typical centre-right party in Continental Europe and in some ways Quebecers on various issues like immigration, welfare state etc. are more European in their thinking than elsewhere in the country.

It's easier for Quebec to balance it's provincial budget since it receives about $10 Billion in equalization.

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How stable are the polls in Quebec normally during their provincial elections vs how much do 'campaigns matter'?

I know the P.Q support collapsed in the 2014 election, but is that degree of volatility normal?

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In 2012 polls were very stable during the writ period. In 2008 PQ overperformed in the final inning because Harper's coalition stance boosted their support. 2007, ADQ went up about 10% in March and they nearly won. 2003: PQ held a small lead during the first half which disappeared when they bungled a controversy about Parizeau repeating his "ethnic vote" statement and ADQ support declined when voters discovered how conservative they were.

Thanks.

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1039368928353562624?s=19

If these numbers are accurate and with PQ support spread relatively evenly through French speaking Quebec (not as evenly as I'd like) is there a possibility they could get shut out?  (I'd like that)

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No, a PQ shutout would require low double digits.

What about falling below official party status (whatever number that is)?

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No, a PQ shutout would require low double digits.

What about falling below official party status (whatever number that is)?

12 seats or 20% (no matter the number of seats, if you get 20% of votes, you're an official party).

Thanks!

[136or142]

CAQ is promising free daycare in the province by 2023. Seems to me like a more economically populist move to gain voters from the PQ, which has actually gained a few points in the last weeks.
https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2018/09/12/5000-classes-a-ajouter-pour-la-caq

These populist promises are getting beyond silly now.

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My rough prediction, numbers rounded to '0'

CAQ: 60
Liberals: 40
P.Q: 10
QS: 10

(I know there are 125 ridings)

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Results have started to come in.  LET"S GET READY TO RUUUUUMBLE! (I love Michael Buffer)

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Is it a surprise to see the CAQ doing welll in Argenteuil , or the rural parts of  the Gatineau region?

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Is it still the case that the heavy federalist vote comes in later on? (As per the 1995 referendum.)