Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[mileslunn]

In just under a year Quebec goes to the polls for their provincial election.  My thoughts on things now are as follows.

PLQ (Liberals): Have a slight lead in the polls, but are trailing amongst Francophones who make up the majority of the population and dominate most ridings.  Also Philippe Couillard doesn't have great approval ratings although with a healthy surplus there is reason to believe they should rebound somewhat as a lot of the disapproval comes from earlier austerity.  Also the PLQ does strongest amongst older voters so as we've seen in the past, polls could be underestimating their support.

Parti Quebecois: Are in third place now in most polls and somewhat struggling as support for sovereignty is now under 30%.  A lot will depend if they talk a lot about having another referendum which will hurt their chances or do they focus more on other issues.  Also Quebec Solidaire is polling in the mid to high teens so pushing them down will be necessary if they wish to win.  Still wouldn't rule out them winning, but I think the odds of them winning are long.  Opposition perhaps.

CAQ: Doing reasonably well in the polls and also amongst Francophones Francois Legault ranks as best premier, but their support is quite soft so tough to say how they will do.  Could possibly win, but just as easily their support could taper off as we've seen them ride high in the polls before as well as with their predecessor the ADQ only to never materialize. 

Quebec Solidaire: Doing surprisingly well in the polls placing in the mid to high teens, however asides from the East side of Montreal unlikely to win many seats.  Also their vote is heavily skewed towards millennials so unless there is a strong turnout amongst them polls maybe overestimating their support.  In past elections they have generally done worse than polls have predicted.

What is everyone else's thoughts on this?

[mileslunn]

Last PQ congress agreed to not hold a referendum in their first term, so I would assume their campaign wouldn't be about that.

Probably a wise move as every time this is brought up it hurts their numbers.  Both PLQ and CAQ are centre-right so better for them to focus on centre-left voters whether they are separatist or federalist.

[mileslunn]

Last PQ congress agreed to not hold a referendum in their first term, so I would assume their campaign wouldn't be about that.

Probably a wise move as every time this is brought up it hurts their numbers.  Both PLQ and CAQ are centre-right so better for them to focus on centre-left voters whether they are separatist or federalist.

Almost all of it has come from their strong support amongst millennials.  They are very left wing party so much as you saw Corbyn, Sanders, and Melenchon all do well amongst millennials same thing.  That being said they often poll in double digits in between elections, but on election day their strong numbers for whatever reason rarely seem to materialize.

[mileslunn]

Two more issues on this front.

1.  CAQ picks up normally safe PLQ seat of Louis-Hebert so this would be a sign at the moment at least they are strong in Quebec City and have potential province wide.  And it wasn't even close either.  That being said by-elections are a different animal and sometimes people vote for opposition parties to send a message to the government knowing it won't change the government whereas a general election is a whole different ball park.  The main barrier for the CAQ is you had too many dead zones which are Island of Montreal, Gaspésie region, Saguenay, Outuoais, and Nord du Quebec so without seats there, they have to win big elsewhere to get a majority.

2.  Quebec Solidaire and Option Nationale have merged.  Doubt that will make to big a difference and actually might even hurt them a bit as Quebec Solidaire's support is strongest amongst millennials.  It is strong amongst them as their left wing policies are popular with millennials much like Corbyn's were in the UK and Sanders in the US, they are not voting for them for sovereignty.  Whereas Option Nationale is a sovereigntists first party as opposed to left wing.

[mileslunn]

What would be the most likely seat outside Montreal island to go QS? I would like to see them become a contender in the long term, but it would be crucial for them to get a foothold outside the island to make QS seem credible.

That is the challenge.  If they dropped the whole sovereignty stance I think the Outaoais might be winneable as it is probably the most left wing area off the island, but it is staunchly federalist and thus why it goes it heavily PLQ, but with the PLQ becoming more of a centre-right than centre-left party does leave an opening.  Still probably tough.  The thing they have most going for them is strong potential amongst millennials so if they hold them as they age then they will start picking up elsewhere.  The problem for them is most in their 20s tend to be idealistic and quite open to left wing ideas, but they say once you start paying taxes, buy your first home, get married and have children people tend to become more conservative.

[mileslunn]

Explain CAQ to me: is it basically like the ADQ?

Similar but a bit more moderate so a more modified version of the ADQ.

[mileslunn]

I would guess Taschereau, i.e. Downtown Quebec City.

I was going to make that same guess.

Maybe it's a bit different than the rest of the region, but for whatever reason it seems Quebec City is generally more conservative than most of the province.  The ADQ and CAQ have tended to perform better here and certainly federally the Conservatives tend to often get double the support they do in the rest of the province.  Not sure the exact reason for it, but past results suggest that. 

[mileslunn]

Just in general how come most of Quebec City except the core area is fairly conservative compared to the rest of the province?

[mileslunn]

Just in general how come most of Quebec City except the core area is fairly conservative compared to the rest of the province?

A number of reasons. I blame much of it on conservative talk radio, backlash against what they see as Montreal domination of the province, higher religiosity, less diversity.

I've heard their radio is quite conservative than the rest of the province so makes some sense.

[mileslunn]

At the moment the CAQ would have a good shot at winning the most seats, but their support is quite soft so whether it holds up or not until election day is a big question mark.  While there are many possibilities, my prediction at the moment would still be a PLQ minority but that could change.  CAQ has a weaker base than the PQ and PLQ, but unlike those two it straddles the sovereignty/federalist line so can appeal to those on both sides.  Their real problem is in the Gaspésie region, Nord du Quebec, Saguenay, Island of Montreal, and Outaouis region, they are largely irrelevant so with no seats in those areas, that means they need to win around 2/3 of the seats in the rest of the province which is possible but quite difficult.

[mileslunn]

With the PQ numbers in bad shape, not surprised many are leaving.  I also suspect some PLQ will as well since even though I still think the PLQ has a decent chance at re-election, it is unlikely they will win as many seats as they did last time around so some marginal ones they will probably lose.  CAQ and QS by contrast should unless they mess up badly hold all the seats they currently hold and maybe pick up a few adjacent ones for QS while for CAQ probably make gains although whether the gains are enough to win outright or not is the big question at this point.  There is a possibility they are peaking too soon.  Also the PLQ still leads amongst seniors who generally vote and in addition to that I've found polls in the past tend to underestimate the PLQ while overestimate QS (Probably since their support is heavily skewed towards millennials who are less likely vote).

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet just out with a poll for Quebec, have one for New Brunswick and Ontario tomorrow.

CAQ - 32%
PLQ - 31%
PQ - 18% (whoa! this is disastrous for them)
QS - 15%

CAQ has a 6 point lead amongst Francophones.  A strong tightening in the Quebec City region, but CAQ surges ahead in the rest of Quebec.  PLQ well out in front in the Montreal region with the CAQ in a distant second.  So it seems the PLQ rebounding a bit, but PQ in a death spiral and CAQ gaining primarily from them.  Could this be the beginning of the end of the PQ?

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet just out with a poll for Quebec, have one for New Brunswick and Ontario tomorrow.

CAQ - 32%
PLQ - 31%
PQ - 18% (whoa! this is disastrous for them)
QS - 15%

CAQ has a 6 point lead amongst Francophones.  A strong tightening in the Quebec City region, but CAQ surges ahead in the rest of Quebec.  PLQ well out in front in the Montreal region with the CAQ in a distant second.  So it seems the PLQ rebounding a bit, but PQ in a death spiral and CAQ gaining primarily from them.  Could this be the beginning of the end of the PQ?

If PQ ends under 20% and QS over 10%, this will relaunch the merger/alliance talks.

Might be tough as PQ is very much a party with largely aging members while QS is much more youth oriented.  QS support is strongest in the urban core working class areas while PQ is more in the rural periphery of the province such as Gaspésie, Abitibi, Saguenay (they could even lose that with these numbers) and North Shore.  Still both are separatists and left leaning, but probably the best thing would be let the PQ wither away and instead have the CAQ for the right, Liberals for the middle, and QS for the left, otherwise similar to other provinces, just different labels.

[mileslunn]

In Quebec, PLQ always wins big amongst Anglophones and Allophones regardless of where they are on the spectrum.  For them ideology is irrelevant, its more which party is most opposed to separatism and is least hostile to English and other language rights.  CAQ is nationalist and Francois Legault was a former separatists so even Anglophones and Allophones on the right will avoid him for this reason and likewise wants to tighten Bill 101 which is hated by Anglophones.

CAQ's strong numbers are less to do with it being right wing and more many in Quebec are sick and tired of choosing between a federalist party (who save a 18 month hiatus has been in power since 2003 so people want change) and having to choose a separatist party (PQ who many fear will have another referendum despite their promise.  Voters for the CAQ come from across the spectrum and are essentially those who want to end the going back and forth between the PQ and PLQ.

[mileslunn]

I think NDPQ is to give a choice for progressive federalists who absolutely need the two elements. I don't remember hearing about them since they chose a leader. It will be difficult for them to get their message out.

The federal NDP isn't officially backing NDPQ because it could vex their QS base,

The QS nominations in Quebec City were won by the two ex-Option Nationale candidates over the last two QS candidates in their respective ridings. Former ON leader Sol Zanetti in Jean-Lesage and Catherine Dorion in Taschereau. QS has said Taschereau is now their biggest riding for membership with 850 (Nadeau-Dubois in Gouin has 800).

Quebec may have a provincial NDP and provincial Conservative Party but I doubt either will go far.  Other than difference on separatism, I suspect most NDP supporters will for the Quebec Solidaire which has a similar base and lots of overlap.  Also if the PLQ loses and CAQ wins, wouldn't be surprised if the PLQ moves to the left similar to the Ontario Liberals and federal Liberals thus making them more palatable to NDP supporters.

I suspect most Francophone Conservatives will go for the CAQ which is already centre-right as opposed to Quebec Conservatives.  Likewise with the PLQ being fiscally conservative, they might get some federal Conservatives although probably mostly amongst the Anglophone and Allophone Conservative voters not so much amongst Francophone Conservatives.

Even federal Liberals won't necessarily go PLQ as federal Liberals are polling higher in Quebec and the two despite sharing the same name lean in different directions with PLQ being more fiscally conservative and federal Liberals more on the progressive side.

But when it comes to provincial NDP and provincial Conservatives I suspect they will win no seats and probably be a lot like the Saskatchewan Progressive Conservatives, BC Conservatives, or Saskatchewan Liberals; get a few percentage points but not amount to very much.

[mileslunn]

For the NDP in Quebec, since the PQ and QS are social democratic in their policies, the NDP never really bothered as well as most unions backed the PQ.  But with millennials being fairly progressive in Quebec yet mostly federalist there is somewhat a void if you are a left wing federalist.  The PLQ and CAQ both lean to the right while QS and PQ want to separate.  Also until recently people in Quebec didn't vote along left vs. right lines, they voted along sovereignty vs. federalism lines.  So if a separatist you voted PQ no matter where you stood on the spectrum and if a federalist you voted PLQ regardless.  Only with the decline of sovereignty has this changed which is quite recent.

In terms of Conservatives, BC, Saskatchewan, and Quebec all have conservative parties on paper, but most Conservatives vote BC Liberals, Saskatchewan Party or CAQ in their respective provinces.  To be fair the Liberals are also pretty much dead in both Alberta and Saskatchewan but there most go NDP in Alberta or Alberta Party and in Saskatchewan, Blue Liberals go Saskatchewan Party while progressives ones go NDP.

[mileslunn]

So these provincial parties like the NDPQ and Quebec Conservatives exist mostly because Federal Parties like to have a party in all provinces, even if they won't win anything?

Just the NDP (though they've tolerated not having a provincial party for decades; this is a new construct). The provincial conservatives in Quebec are not affiliated with the federal Tories. Most federal Tories support the CAQ.

So the Conservatives are for people who listen to radio poubelle?

radio poubelle is quite popular in the regions of Quebec and Quebec City.

[mileslunn]

So these provincial parties like the NDPQ and Quebec Conservatives exist mostly because Federal Parties like to have a party in all provinces, even if they won't win anything?

Just the NDP (though they've tolerated not having a provincial party for decades; this is a new construct). The provincial conservatives in Quebec are not affiliated with the federal Tories. Most federal Tories support the CAQ.

Is the new NDPQ affiliated with the NDP? I mean officially, like provincial NDP members are also members of the federal NDP? It doesn't seem to be the case with the NDPQ.

If I can trust wikipedia, the Conservative party of Quenec was created in 2009 by two former Union Nationale. After some changes in party leader, the current leader I think was working on the policy for the ADQ. He's more libertarian, against corporate subsidy, state intervention. Maxime Bernier during his leadership race told them if he would try to help them win a seat. 
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_Quebec_(2009%E2%80%93present)

For now they are fringe parties with "famous" names. Not sure if they will have candidates in all ridings.

I believe members of the NDPQ are also members of the federal NDP.

Now that Ekos has done an Ontario poll, will they do a Quebec one?  I would be interested to see what they are showing as most show the CAQ ahead now but still questionable whether they would get a majority or not.

[mileslunn]

I'm surprised talk of electoral reform isn't bigger in Quebec. You'd think they would be the first province to want to get rid of an antiquated British system.

True, although France uses a majoritarian system like Britain.  They have run off elections based on constituencies.  In fact I believe UK and France are the only two countries in Western Europe that still use majoritarian systems while in the EU, Hungary and Lithuania use hybrid systems, but of the 28 member states, those four are the only ones that don't use some form of PR. 

Looking closer to Quebec, I can see why PQ and QS favour one to avoid splitting but CAQ might actually be harmed in the long run.  If the CAQ wins and PLQ loses, the next PLQ leader will likely be centre-left (similar to Trudeau and Wynne on the political spectrum) as opposed to centre-right (Couillard is centre-right as was the last leader Jean Charest) so that could make it more difficult for the CAQ do get anything done.  Quebec doesn't have a large enough population really for two centre-right parties.  It's only due to unique circumstances it works at the moment.

[mileslunn]

I'm surprised talk of electoral reform isn't bigger in Quebec. You'd think they would be the first province to want to get rid of an antiquated British system.

True, although France uses a majoritarian system like Britain.  They have run off elections based on constituencies.  In fact I believe UK and France are the only two countries in Western Europe that still use majoritarian systems while in the EU, Hungary and Lithuania use hybrid systems, but of the 28 member states, those four are the only ones that don't use some form of PR. 

The bonus seats awarded to the largest party in Greece is anything but PR. It is clearly a hybrid between PR and FPTP(on the national scale.)

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Good point and Italy also uses this too, so I guess out of the 28 member states (soon to be 27), 2 use Majoritarian systems (UK and France), four use hybrid (Greece, Hungary, Italy, and Lithuania), and the remaining 22 use some form of PR.  Most are List PR as only Germany and Romania use MMP, only Ireland and Malta use STV, while only Netherlands uses pure PR.

[mileslunn]

I suspect PR will come to a number of provinces, I think the groups demanding it unlike a decade ago are better organized and there is also more support amongst millennials.  Still whether it goes nation wide or not will depend on how well it works.  I think the biggest problem today is political polarization is much worse than it was in the past so finding consensus and getting parties to cooperate won't be easy due to how strong tribalism is.  In Europe they have a long history of PR whereas we do not.  Never mind it seems the right is more right wing than in the past while left more left wing and the centre hollowing out.  Also in Europe stability has been less so in recent elections as you are seeing greater political fragmentation.

Had it been implemented many years ago it would probably would have worked then, but with most going to their political echo chambers and each side seeming to dislike the other I am quite skeptical it can work in the current political climate.  Likewise those assuming it would help their party should be careful for what they wish for as parties would behave differently and voters would vote differently.  In the last decade, the right has done better in Europe than Canada despite the fact most use PR and social democratic parties throughout Europe are now in crisis.  Off course that could be a unique phenomenon we don't have to worry about but nonetheless it does point to be careful what you wish for.

[mileslunn]

I don't think the French system is worse, as in theory it should mean the winner should have the majority support of the electorate (though if the top 2 candidates received fewer than 50% of the vote, this is not the case).

That's exactly why I think it's worse. It's even less proportional than FPTP. Majoritarian votes exclude unpopular ideological minorities even more so than FPTP and rewards the inoffensive with larger seat counts. En Marche! got a majority off of 28% of the first round vote last year. I don't think that's remotely fair. FPTP at least allows an outlet so long as the unpopular group can concentrate their vote.

Oh, I see what you mean. Yeah, I agree. The Liberals would probably have a super majority if we had that system federally (this is why Trudeau supports AV). I don't think it would skew things as badly in Quebec provincial politics though.

True although in the long-run it might bite the Liberals as it would mean they would probably be in power for a long time and when people finally did get fed up they would fall to third place.  If AV was used in Ontario, the Ontario Liberals would almost certainly be on their way to third place as they don't have a lot of second choices even though ironically in 2014 Wynne would have won a bigger landslide so over the long-run it balances out although not as parties necessarily think.  I also think if AV were used in Ontario, the PCs would have chosen Elliott not Ford as they know she can pick up more second choices than he can and someone like Michael Chong or Lisa Raitt would have done better in the Conservative leadership race since they would need someone like that to have a hope in hell.  Likewise the NDP in Ontario might have taken a more centrist position than they have as most soft PC supporters won't go NDP, but if the NDP were more centrist they might get many second PC choices.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet is out with their quarterly poll and a bit closer than others but due to lead amongst Francophones and regional distribution, CAQ still have the upper hand, but a bit more competitive for the Liberals.

CAQ 32.3%
PLQ 29.7%
PQ 16.5%
QS 11.7%
CPQ 3.5%
NDPQ 2.1%
Vert 1.3%
Autres 2.9%

[mileslunn]

Does the PLQ have a monetary advantage over the CAQ?  I am thinking if they have a monetary advantage a long campaign works in their favour.  Could also be trying to catch Legault off guard but since the date is fixed, not sure that will be as effective as say it was for Jean Chretien in 2000 against Stockwell Day.  I have though noticed for whatever reason, the PLQ almost always does better than pre-election polls so any particular reason for this?  My thinking is most surveys are done in French only they miss the unilingual Anglophones who tend to vote massively PLQ thus why they underestimate them.  Anybody can comment on this?

[mileslunn]

Well, the good news about that is it means the threat of separatism will continue to die a slow death.

But the Liberals aren't that far to the left of CAQ, are they?

Both are actually slightly right of centre at the moment.  The PLQ unlike the Ontario Liberals or federal Liberals are fiscally conservative in terms of believing in balanced budgets and lower taxes.  In fact under Charest and Couillard, they were probably more like the BC Liberals than federal or Ontario Liberals although I suspect if they lose to the CAQ their next leader will be more left wing thus more like the OLP and federal counterparts.  The CAQ is not as right wing as the federal Tories, Ontario PCs, or UCP, but still definitely leans to the right.  The one area where they are to the right of most parties elsewhere in Canada is immigration, but that is an issue Quebecers in general have always been more conservative on.  In a lot of ways, the CAQ is like your typical centre-right party in Continental Europe and in some ways Quebecers on various issues like immigration, welfare state etc. are more European in their thinking than elsewhere in the country.