Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[RogueBeaver]

I'd say at least partially due to GND.

[RogueBeaver]

Quite possible but as we've discussed in the general thread there's a cyclical RW surge every 5 years or so since 2002. Those numbers would be on the minority/majority threshold and per La Presse last week, are mirrored in Grit internals.

[RogueBeaver]

Hebert raised the possibility that when Cloutier returns, he'll form some sort of new party or at least try to overhaul the PQ. Aussant's also someone to watch sorting through the wreckage.

[RogueBeaver]

New Leger poll: 39/28/20/9. Splendid news! Michel David says that with CAQ at 46% of Francophones, they'd win about 80 seats. Grits lose about half their seats, PQ down to 8 seats. If PQ goes below 20% they lose official party status. Worst PLQ result in seats since 1976.

[RogueBeaver]

There have been umpteen retirements in recent days, mostly ministers but also Amir Khadir yesterday. Most recent retirements are Laurent Lessard (Ag) and David Huertel (Environment).

Ipsos: 35 (+1), 32 (+2), 20 (-3).

[RogueBeaver]

I only trust Leger for provincial polls, but Mainstreet's current numbers are actually an improvement for CAQ over their previous one. Minor parties will be much smaller. QS can only win island seats. Seat-wise, that would be the worst Grit result since '76.

[RogueBeaver]

Agreed on the PQ, though probably need closer to 15% than 20% for that. New party could form from PQ ashes that's progressive and staunchly nationalist, but not explicitly sovereigntist. Chantal Hebert wrote about this possibility back in January. Names I'd watch if that happens are Aussant and Cloutier. I'll believe QS wins a Quebec City seat if I see it.

[RogueBeaver]

Couillard taking a page from Harper's 2015 playbook by floating starting the writ campaign a week early, i.e. in 2 weeks rather than 3 as scheduled.

[RogueBeaver]

Polls always overestimate minor parties. In 2014 they got about 2%, no reason to imagine it'll be any different.

[RogueBeaver]

Former Habs player Enrico Ciccone will run for the Grits.

[RogueBeaver]

Writ campaign starts in 12 days.

[RogueBeaver]

Not really. TBH ideological distinctions on most issues aren't yuge - all 3 heartily endorse the "Quebec model."

[RogueBeaver]

PQ self-owns with the campaign slogan "seriously."

PLQ enrages local activists in Marquette by replacing veteran backbencher Francois Choquette with a washed-up bad hockey player from 20 years ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger is out: 36/30/18/10. Breguet projects this as 74/40/6/5. 45% of voters could change their minds. Battlegrounds are northern couronne, Estrie and Est-du-Quebec. CAQ leads with seniors.

[RogueBeaver]

Their highest in Leger was 15 with the GND bump last year but quickly returned to earth. Either way they were limited to the eastern island.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger's the only poll I care about here, and even if you used those Mainstreet numbers they were still stuck in eastern Montreal. Hell jack them up to 25% and they're still at 14 seats in Breguet's simulator.

[RogueBeaver]

In other news, Legault has found his would-be health minister.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/2closetocall/status/1030976399606046720

[RogueBeaver]

In 2012 polls were very stable during the writ period. In 2008 PQ overperformed in the final inning because Harper's coalition stance boosted their support. 2007, ADQ went up about 10% in March and they nearly won. 2003: PQ held a small lead during the first half which disappeared when they bungled a controversy about Parizeau repeating his "ethnic vote" statement and ADQ support declined when voters discovered how conservative they were.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger says for the first time in his 30 years of polling, PLQ has surrendered their econ brand. Legault now owns that issue, PQ keeps culture, Grits immigration and weirdly, education.

Holy crap: the Marquette nomination sh**tshow has turned a safe Grit riding into a close race with CAQ. By safe I mean L+42 last time and since its creation Grits have always won by at least 2-1. SAD!

[RogueBeaver]

Grits probably won't lose it, as I said, but margin will be closer than usual. If by some freak accident they do lose (like Martin's similar 2004 fiascoes), then Grits are getting <40 seats.

DC: No, he's retiring.

In other candidate news, Legault did not get the highly respected hospital CEO he wanted for Health. She also turned down a Grit offer.

[RogueBeaver]

Update: Gertrude Bouillon, the hospital CEO I mentioned yesterday, has decided to go with Couillard and run in the Quebec City riding of Jean-Lesage. CAQ is currently poised for a near-sweep of 418.

[RogueBeaver]

What toaster said: The Liberals and PQ were extremely progressive in the 60s and 70s but once they locked in what's called the Quebec model, they mellowed out and slouched away from bold progressivism.

[RogueBeaver]

FWIW, today's Mainstreet riding polls have CAQ leading in 5 and PLQ holds narrow lead in 2.

[RogueBeaver]

More likely that they're overrating QS and underrating PLQ, particularly the latter. Leger tweeted as much recently.