Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[Hatman 🍁]

Couillard trying to shake things up with the veil ban? Disgusting prick.

Not good numbers for QS, funny to seem them doing as well with non-Francos as with Fancos.

[Hatman 🍁]

Unfortunately they will be irrelevant, doing slightly better than the last left wing federalist party did a few elections ago (the UCQ).

[Hatman 🍁]

How come CAQ only get half as much support with non-Francophones as they do with Francophones?

They're a nationalist party, and and non-Francophones do not like nationalist/separatist parties.

Non francos already have a right wing party to vote for, it's called the PLQ!

[Hatman 🍁]

Has there ever been demand for electoral reform in Quebec?

Last year all opposition parties have agreed on the idea of a mixed member proportional sytem based on regions. I don't know if they are all very committed to it of if they would agree on the details of the system.

Around 2006 there was a commission with public hearings on reforms to the electoral law. It covered not only the voting system but I think the recommandation was a MMP system.   

I suppose the PQ sees the writing on the wall re: their declining support. Once upon a time they relied on FPTP to win false majorities thanks to the Liberal vote sinks on the West Island.

[Hatman 🍁]

So these provincial parties like the NDPQ and Quebec Conservatives exist mostly because Federal Parties like to have a party in all provinces, even if they won't win anything?

Just the NDP (though they've tolerated not having a provincial party for decades; this is a new construct). The provincial conservatives in Quebec are not affiliated with the federal Tories. Most federal Tories support the CAQ.

[Hatman 🍁]

So these provincial parties like the NDPQ and Quebec Conservatives exist mostly because Federal Parties like to have a party in all provinces, even if they won't win anything?

Just the NDP (though they've tolerated not having a provincial party for decades; this is a new construct). The provincial conservatives in Quebec are not affiliated with the federal Tories. Most federal Tories support the CAQ.

Is the new NDPQ affiliated with the NDP? I mean officially, like provincial NDP members are also members of the federal NDP? It doesn't seem to be the case with the NDPQ.

If I can trust wikipedia, the Conservative party of Quenec was created in 2009 by two former Union Nationale. After some changes in party leader, the current leader I think was working on the policy for the ADQ. He's more libertarian, against corporate subsidy, state intervention. Maxime Bernier during his leadership race told them if he would try to help them win a seat. 
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_Quebec_(2009%E2%80%93present)

For now they are fringe parties with "famous" names. Not sure if they will have candidates in all ridings.

I believe members of the NDPQ are also members of the federal NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

So these provincial parties like the NDPQ and Quebec Conservatives exist mostly because Federal Parties like to have a party in all provinces, even if they won't win anything?

Just the NDP (though they've tolerated not having a provincial party for decades; this is a new construct). The provincial conservatives in Quebec are not affiliated with the federal Tories. Most federal Tories support the CAQ.

Is the new NDPQ affiliated with the NDP? I mean officially, like provincial NDP members are also members of the federal NDP? It doesn't seem to be the case with the NDPQ.

If I can trust wikipedia, the Conservative party of Quenec was created in 2009 by two former Union Nationale. After some changes in party leader, the current leader I think was working on the policy for the ADQ. He's more libertarian, against corporate subsidy, state intervention. Maxime Bernier during his leadership race told them if he would try to help them win a seat. 
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_of_Quebec_(2009%E2%80%93present)

For now they are fringe parties with "famous" names. Not sure if they will have candidates in all ridings.

I believe members of the NDPQ are also members of the federal NDP.

Now that Ekos has done an Ontario poll, will they do a Quebec one?  I would be interested to see what they are showing as most show the CAQ ahead now but still questionable whether they would get a majority or not.

I think we're mostly focused on Ontario right now.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm surprised talk of electoral reform isn't bigger in Quebec. You'd think they would be the first province to want to get rid of an antiquated British system.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think the French system is worse, as in theory it should mean the winner should have the majority support of the electorate (though if the top 2 candidates received fewer than 50% of the vote, this is not the case).

There are worse electoral systems than FPTP though, like the system used in municipal elections in BC (plurality at-large voting; should be noted this is used outside of BC too, but it's worse in partisan elections). Also very surprised that the province that will likely get electoral reform first has such a terrible system for municipal elections.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hatman sees in the future... a journalist from Le Soleil newspaper has an article on electoral reform.

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/un-scrutin-proportionnel-pourrait-mener-a-plus-de-sieges-4d1d00776d2514a4e50e50d9837f91d7

Opposition parties agree on the principle of proportional but need to have a consensus on the precise formula. They have a report from the organization pushing for electoral reform. It suggests a mixed proportional sytem with national compensantion and regional distribution. There could be a few more seats than the current 125.

People would cast two votes. One for a candidate in the riding and one for a party. 75 candidates elected in constituencies and about 50 elected from regional list made by parties based on the entire Quebec vote share. There would be eight regions for compensation. It suggests a treshold of 2% to be in the Assembly financial incentives based on the number of women elected, measures so candidates of women, visible minorities and immigrants reflects their proportion in each region, and submit a law for reform within 90 days after the next election.       

If they make it 78 seats, they could just use the federal riding map like we do in Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think the French system is worse, as in theory it should mean the winner should have the majority support of the electorate (though if the top 2 candidates received fewer than 50% of the vote, this is not the case).

That's exactly why I think it's worse. It's even less proportional than FPTP. Majoritarian votes exclude unpopular ideological minorities even more so than FPTP and rewards the inoffensive with larger seat counts. En Marche! got a majority off of 28% of the first round vote last year. I don't think that's remotely fair. FPTP at least allows an outlet so long as the unpopular group can concentrate their vote.

Oh, I see what you mean. Yeah, I agree. The Liberals would probably have a super majority if we had that system federally (this is why Trudeau supports AV). I don't think it would skew things as badly in Quebec provincial politics though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, they would probably vote CAQ, in any PQ-CAQ race, no?

[Hatman 🍁]

one would hope they move away from using the same two colours as QS.

[Hatman 🍁]

one would hope they move away from using the same two colours as QS.

What would you suggest given that QS owns Orange? Its a bit of a weird situation.

Orange and blue would look good for them, I think. It is Quebec, after all. But odd that this logo is orange and purple.

[Hatman 🍁]

If there were a comprised of La Cité-Limoilou borough, then I think QS could win it. Unfortunately, the current map divides the borough in half, splitting the progressive vote. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Does the PLQ have a monetary advantage over the CAQ?  I am thinking if they have a monetary advantage a long campaign works in their favour.  Could also be trying to catch Legault off guard but since the date is fixed, not sure that will be as effective as say it was for Jean Chretien in 2000 against Stockwell Day.  I have though noticed for whatever reason, the PLQ almost always does better than pre-election polls so any particular reason for this?  My thinking is most surveys are done in French only they miss the unilingual Anglophones who tend to vote massively PLQ thus why they underestimate them.  Anybody can comment on this?

While it probably doesn't account for much, Quebec polls are French first/English second, which suppresses some Anglophone responses. Any firm that weights by language though can overcome this problem fairly easily, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't call the CAQ federalists as Federalism is a euphemism for Canadian Nationalism and they're Quebec Nationalists ever bit as much as the PQ, it's just that they aren't also seperatists.

Indeed, and CAQ's ancestor party, the ADQ was definitely a separatist party.  In the end, almost all federalists will still vote for the Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

Strange. Why would young people want to support that party?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, the good news about that is it means the threat of separatism will continue to die a slow death.

But the Liberals aren't that far to the left of CAQ, are they?

[Hatman 🍁]

Are they doing riding polls?

Not sure if I will subscribe this time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Do we know why QS has collapsed so much? They were polling in the high teens not too long ago.

[Hatman 🍁]

Their highest in Leger was 15 with the GND bump last year but quickly returned to earth. Either way they were limited to the eastern island.

Mainstreet had their highest at 19% last year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Quebec_general_election,_2018

[Hatman 🍁]

If the QS were at 25% all bets are off, and you can throw all of the simulators in the garbage.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was wondering why they were even bothering to poll the riding. Now we know.

[Hatman 🍁]

#hottake: There is no major left wing federalist party for the same reason there's no major left wing unionist party in Northern Ireland.