Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[DC Al Fine]

What would be the most likely seat outside Montreal island to go QS? I would like to see them become a contender in the long term, but it would be crucial for them to get a foothold outside the island to make QS seem credible.

I would guess Taschereau, i.e. Downtown Quebec City.

[DC Al Fine]

Makes you wonder what campaigning will look like when millennials are the older generation.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah, the French system is one of the few I would consider worse than FPTP. I'm glad that Quebec is kicking around MMP for electoral reform instead.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't think the French system is worse, as in theory it should mean the winner should have the majority support of the electorate (though if the top 2 candidates received fewer than 50% of the vote, this is not the case).

That's exactly why I think it's worse. It's even less proportional than FPTP. Majoritarian votes exclude unpopular ideological minorities even more so than FPTP and rewards the inoffensive with larger seat counts. En Marche! got a majority off of 28% of the first round vote last year. I don't think that's remotely fair. FPTP at least allows an outlet so long as the unpopular group can concentrate their vote.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't think the French system is worse, as in theory it should mean the winner should have the majority support of the electorate (though if the top 2 candidates received fewer than 50% of the vote, this is not the case).

That's exactly why I think it's worse. It's even less proportional than FPTP. Majoritarian votes exclude unpopular ideological minorities even more so than FPTP and rewards the inoffensive with larger seat counts. En Marche! got a majority off of 28% of the first round vote last year. I don't think that's remotely fair. FPTP at least allows an outlet so long as the unpopular group can concentrate their vote.

Oh, I see what you mean. Yeah, I agree. The Liberals would probably have a super majority if we had that system federally (this is why Trudeau supports AV). I don't think it would skew things as badly in Quebec provincial politics though.

Do you (or anyone else) have any ideas what a two round system would look like in Quebec? I assume Anglophone voters would vote Anyone But PQ in the 2nd round, but that really only affects the few seats where Anglos are a significant portion of the vote but not enough to move the Liberals out of 3rd place. I have no idea what Francophone 2nd votes would look like.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah you're probably right. The only places it would make a difference would be wherever QS is competitive plus maybe Iberville (there's a Liberal part of the riding that I think is Anglo, but otherwise PLQ is a distant third).

It would be the Francophones who would be more interesting. Thoughts?

[DC Al Fine]

one would hope they move away from using the same two colours as QS.

What would you suggest given that QS owns Orange? Its a bit of a weird situation.

[DC Al Fine]

Leger says for the first time in his 30 years of polling, PLQ has surrendered their econ brand. Legault now owns that issue, PQ keeps culture, Grits immigration and weirdly, education.

Holy crap: the Marquette nomination sh**tshow has turned a safe Grit riding into a close race with CAQ. By safe I mean L+42 last time and since its creation Grits have always won by at least 2-1. SAD!

Could Ouimet run as an independent? Or has he decided to retire?

[DC Al Fine]

Given the PLQ's relatively inefficient vote, by approximately how much do they need to win the popular vote by to win the most seats? To win a majority?

[DC Al Fine]

Given the PLQ's relatively inefficient vote, by approximately how much do they need to win the popular vote by to win the most seats? To win a majority?

Too close to call has posted about this. If PLQ is ahead by 2.5%, each party has 50% chanve of winning the most seats. I think that is in the situation both parties are in the low 30% and the PQ is at 20% and wins at least a dozen seats. When there were two parties the PLQ needed to be ahead by maybe 4-5% to win.

I don't know if it's because of the Mainstreet polls that show CAQ lead decreasing but Legault is already pitching strtaegic voting to PQ voters because he's the only alternative to replace the Liberals. Usually this happens later. Mainstreet in the last months had a CAQ lead smaller than Léger.

I received an automated call from Bellwether technologies for a survey on voting intentions. I've never heard of them so was suspicious it was not a public survey but party polling.   

Thank you

I'm annoyed by how little polling we are getting. Before the campaign starts, we would get one or two polls a week basically showing the same results every time and since the campaign started, we probably got one or two non-Mainstreet polls.

It's weird because its Quebec. This is normal for a small province like SK or NB, but it's weird that Quebec isn't getting lots of polls. Freaking Nova Scotia was more heavily polled in our last election.

[DC Al Fine]

I see there is an English debate. How much of a sideshow is it given Anglo voter's preferences and does the PQ even bother showing up?

[DC Al Fine]

Favourite part of the English debate: Lisee making his opening statement about how Quebec needs to be independent and French needing to be its sole language.

I guess if you aren't competing for Anglo votes you might as well own it.

[DC Al Fine]

Also amazing that his English was the best of the four.

Haha, very true. Couilliard was fine too, but Legault and Masse were pretty painful to listen to.

[DC Al Fine]

Favourite part of the English debate: Lisee making his opening statement about how Quebec needs to be independent and French needing to be its sole language.

I guess if you aren't competing for Anglo votes you might as well own it.

I'm a bit surprised the PQ showed up to the English debate. Have they skipped English debates in the past?

It was the first English debate since the 80's.

Hmm, PLQ vs Equality Party would have been interesting to watch.

[DC Al Fine]

My vote compass:

NPD 79%
PVQ 76%
QS 74%
PQ 63%
PLQ 62%
CAQ 48%
PCQ 27%

Where is Québec 51?

They're the fringe of the fringe and most people cant even vote for them.

[DC Al Fine]

Well, Lisée basically set himself on fire tonight. That was basically a political suicide and I'm pretty sure he just gave the CAQ a majority.

What did he do?

At last night's debate, while he was having a face off with Massé about healthcare, he went on a bizarre rant about how Massé wasn't the real leader of QS (and that neither was Nadeau-Dubois) and implied she shouldn't be there because it's a leaders' debate. He also seemed to imply that QS was led by a shadowy figure (Of course, his fans ate it up by ranting on facebook about the politburo's true leader). He ignored repeatedly the moderator asking him to stay on topic while pushing that point again and again in a really weirdly agressive and slightly unhinged way. And times and times again during the debate, he had to be called back to order. He was very agressive and he went off topic once again in a face off with Legault and would just not let it go. Now, reading the covering, it seems news are more focusing on the Couillard-Legault face off since they're the front runnings, so my political suicide comment was a bit an over statement, but it was still an awful debate performance, especially compared to the ones he had on monday and last thursday. Social medias were buzzing about how he looked like someone who wanted to lose his election and how he killed any momentum and goodwill he could have been gaining in the past few days.

Yeah that was weird. I have no idea why he and/or his handlers thought that was a good idea.

[DC Al Fine]

Does he feel he might lose his own seat to QS?

He probably does. Most models seem to have Rosemont "on the bubble".

[DC Al Fine]

Paging Earl

[DC Al Fine]

Excellent Hebert column. PQ's desperation reminds me of BQ's against Layton in the final days of 2011.

Lisé's attacks are pathetic. And all the PQ-supporting pundits in Peladeau's medias repeating his desperate lies and innuendos just make them sound even dumber.

Even if we ignore the weird "Who is Masse's puppetmaster line", the PQ's "ZOMG MARXISM!!!" attack doesn't make any sense. The PQ's right has already gone over to the CAQ, so it's a completely ineffective line of attack among the remaining PQ waverers.

[DC Al Fine]

D'Arcy-McGee also being a bubble within the Montreal bubble.

Hence what I mean by not having a good read on the ground. I live in a QS stronghold (Sainte-Marie Saint-Jacques) and spent my day in the place where it's weird and crazy rare not to be PLQ. Will be at the PLQ party, which is held at New City Gas, a huge venue/club in Griffintown.

Why did you volunteer in a safe seat when there are contested ones nearby?

[DC Al Fine]

Looks at map. Looks at 2014 map. Oh my.

[DC Al Fine]

CAQ on the board on the Island of Montreal. Lisee trailing.

[DC Al Fine]

Is it still the case that the heavy federalist vote comes in later on? (As per the 1995 referendum.)

There's a decent # of Liberal safe seats yet to report, but I doubt it affects much besides the PV.

[DC Al Fine]

Couillard is up

[DC Al Fine]

Solitaire has won their first non-Montreal seat, in Taschereau