UT-04 Ben McAdams Officially in!!!

[jamestroll]

http://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2017/09/30/salt-lake-county-mayor-ben-mcadams-seriously-considering-a-run-against-mia-love-for-congress/

In a year like 2018 and McAdams mostly surviving the controversy with the homeless debate not an impossible race. He certainly has a credible shot.

Though I am skeptical still because he would essentially be giving up on 2020 in which he would be the only credible Democrat to run for governor in 2020. He probably just figures he has a better chance at a congressional race.

There are plenty of other Democratic officials who could make a credible race against Love.

Hopefully the independent redistricting passes on the ballot in Utah next year because if that happens Democrats would very likely have a fairly safe congressional seat starting with 2022 elections. Though considering the GOP bench in Utah it would have to be "lean or likely" instead of "safe".

[Cactus Jack]

Worth a shot.

[Kamala]

It’d be a shame to love Mia Love, one of the less terrible Republicans in Congress, but it’s worth it if the Democrats get a majority.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Worth a shot.

[Anna Komnene]

Ben McAdams and Jim Matheson are like the forbidden fruit of Utah politics. We are constantly teased with the prospect of them running and making races competitive, only to be left with Doug Owens or Misty Snow, or some other nobody with no shot. If McAdams is actually going to run, that could make for a fun election, though I would prefer a statewide race for gov or sen.

Give me that forbidden fruit. I'll drink deep.

[jamestroll]

Well to be fair, Doug Owens did an impressive job in 2014 which made Mathesons victory in 2012 look slightly less impressive. 

Owens big screw up was seeking a rematch with Mia Love.  If he wanted to hold public office he would have had a better chance at running for the at large Salt Lake County council seat which I believe he could have won. Democrats barely lost it last year.  Owens seemed like a sore loser to Love and did not give anyone a good reason to vote for him.

[Zioneer]

Well to be fair, Doug Owens did an impressive job in 2014 which made Mathesons victory in 2012 look slightly less impressive. 

Owens big screw up was seeking a rematch with Mia Love.  If he wanted to hold public office he would have had a better chance at running for the at large Salt Lake County council seat which I believe he could have won. Democrats barely lost it last year.  Owens seemed like a sore loser to Love and did not give anyone a good reason to vote for him.

Agreed, though I contend that our lackluster Senate and Gubernatorial candidates hurt our chances to win the County Council seat. And I liked Catherine Kanter's convention opponent, Kim Bowman (a dude, as an FYI). He was way more charismatic and entergetic than Kanter, and I feel like even with lackluster statewide candidates, he could have won the seat. Owens would have been pretty good too though.

Anyway, if McAdams runs for UT-04, I think he has an excellent chance at winning it. The no-name, no-money Berniecrats running now have absolutely no chance of defeating Mia Love.

[KingSweden]

He would be a MASSIVE get.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Worth a shot.

[publicunofficial]

HE'S IN!!!!!!!!!!

[Cactus Jack]

Can we get a WWE crowd doing the Holy S**t chant?

[Dr. Arch]

[BuckeyeNut]

The wave is building.

[Zioneer]

This is definitely rapidly moving to a Lean R, away from Solid R. McAdams picked the best possible moment, Mia Love literally just spent all of her fundraising for the year on direct mail fundraising, and had to dig into some of the money she kept from last year.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Enthusiastically Endorsed!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Enthusiastically Endorsed!

[Jeppe]

I like Mia Love, I wish he would've run for another seat.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm sorry, but I honestly think it's more likely that Love loses to a McMullin type in the primary than a Democrat.

Hillary did finish third in Utah after all (and I'm pretty sure she also finished either second or third in UT-04).

[Zioneer]

I'm sorry, but I honestly think it's more likely that Love loses to a McMullin type in the primary than a Democrat.

Hillary did finish third in Utah after all (and I'm pretty sure she also finished either second or third in UT-04).

Nope. She got 32.4% of the vote to Trump's 39.1%. She barely beat Trump in the Salt Lake County portion of the seat, where McAdams would need to win by about ten points or more to win the seat. He did get 58% of the vote in the UT-04 portion of the seat in his partisan reelection race last year, indicating it is possible. Doug Owens also barely won SLC in 2014, hence why the district was surprisingly close that year.

I think it's reasonable to call this race leans R.

Are you sure he got 58%? I asked someone on Daily Kos Elections, and they said it was 55%. If you're right, then I'm even happier, but I just wanted to make sure on the numbers. Also, either one is higher than Jim Matheson's 52% in the SLCO portion of the district... and Matheson's strategy was based on running up the numbers in SLCO.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Salt Lake Tribune poll, Oct 9-18, 402 RV

Love (R) 48%
McAdams (D) 42%
Don't know 9%

[BuckeyeNut]

Nice to see Love under 50 this early.

[Jeppe]

Trump's approval ratings in Utah are much higher than his 2016 vote share, unlike most other places. I think McAdams has a very hard route to victory in this gerrymandered district. Jim Matheson barely beat Mia Love while running for re-election to his 7th term as a popular incumbent.

[Holmes]

Not a bad start.

[KingSweden]

This is awesome news. What a great get for this seat

[Boomer sooner]

Why is Love so realativley unpopular? She’s not a full blown trumpist and the district is very GOP.