OR-icitizen: Brown (D) ahead

[MT Treasurer]

41% Kate Brown (D, inc.)
40% Knute Buehler (R)
11% Someone else
8% Undecided

40% Kate Brown (D, inc.)
34% Lori Chavez Deremer (R)
17% Someone else
8% Undecided

42% Kate Brown (D, inc.)
39% Greg Wooldrige (R)
11% Someone else
7% Undecided

Brown favorability: 46/50 (-4)

GOP primary

17% Greg Wooldrige
15% Knute Buehler
4% Lori Chavez Deremer
3% Someone else
14% Undecided

47% I won't be voting on the Republican primary

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https://icitizen.com/insights/oregon-statewide-poll-september-13-28-2017/
https://icitizen.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/ORStatewide_Governor_WTCrosstabs.pdf
http://koin.com/2017/10/02/poll-brown-buehler-governor-race-very-tight/

[President Johnson]

There is much room for Brown to climb.

[UncleSam]

This is, statistically speaking, the most impressive poll I've seen in a while. They really did their homework on this one.

As for the results, I'm stunned Brown's numbers are so weak. Seriously doubt she will struggle in the end but I was expecting something in the double digits at the least. I don't know Oregon that well though - is she unpopular? I'd have expected this from Raimondo in RI but I haven't heard anything about Brown (well, this Brown at any rate xD).

[Kamala]

Doesn't it seem problematic that it's an opt-in poll?

[GlobeSoc]

If this is true, then Oregon will have a big R trend next year. With that out of the way, this poll is not that big of a bombshell

That last 1-3% would be extremely difficult for the GOP to get unless Brown's popularity craters, so the margin may be deceptive.

Also

Doesn't it seem problematic that it's an opt-in poll?

On top of that, there is an enthusiasm gap to account for

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

>including 'someone else'

[user12345]

Brown will win by a larger margin than in '18.

[Holmes]

She'll win comfortably. Oregon is in its Republican teasing stage that it's always in at the beginning of an election cycle. Sort of how Georgia always teases Democrats.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

>including 'someone else'

Their are often third party candidate that run and win a few % points each election in Oregon. Often times these candidates are left of centre. Anyway I suspect much of the other and undecided will break for brown and she will win something like 51-44-4 on Election Day.

[Ye We Can]

Likely D. Buehler would of had a shot in a better year for the GOP.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Just due to the lgbt whatever issue, I would probably support buehler, but I just learned that he bathes in corruption, so I will close my nose and support Kate again.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, those aren't stellar numbers.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Does her unpopularity have anything to do with her bisexuality?

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Doubt this race will be close by the time election day comes.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Does her unpopularity have anything to do with her bisexuality?

No lol, most people don't care about that. There is a big urban-rural divide but really Oregon elections hinge on the I-5 corridor from Portland to Eugene, occasionally other areas come into play as well like the Rouge Valley, really though the Republicans are dead in the water if they can't get someone who can cut into the dem margins a good bit in the Portland Metro area and in the Eugene area. In terms of the Portland area, I've seen a lot of complaints about how Kate Brown has handled the wildfires (many rural people feel abandoned and she didn't handle the fires near Portland and into the Gorge too well) I doubt these factors are enough to make the race winnable for the GOP, but I don't think it's going to be the landslide some people think it is going to be.