Favorability changes after the 2 nights of 1st debate as measured by 538/MC

[eric82oslo]

I'll rank all 20 debaters by two measures in this thread, by how much they improved their favorability ratings among voters due to the debate nights as measured by Morning Consult and published by 538. Finally I'll rank all the candidates as they stand now, on the first Friday after the first debates. Additional numbers will be released on Monday, so I will update these numbers again then.


Which candidates did the debates affect most positively vis-a-vis favorability?

1. Julián Castro: +16.1%

2. Kamala Harris: +9.2%
3. Elizabeth Warren: +9%
4. Cory Booker: +8%

5. Pete Buttigieg: +5.6%
6. Tulsi Gabbard: +4.8%
7. Amy Klobuchar: +4.5%
8. Bill de Blasio: +4.5%
9. Bernie Sanders: +4.1%
10. Jay Inslee: +3.3%
11. Kirsten Gillibrand: +2.5%
12. Michael Bennet: +1%
13. Tim Ryan: +1%
14. Eric Swalwell: +0.8%

15. John Hickenlooper: +0.2%
16. John Delaney: -0.1%
17. Andrew Yang: -0.2%

18. Joe Biden: -3.9%
19. Beto O'Rourke: -4.3%
20. Marianne Williamson: -6.5%


Current candidate favorability ranking after the first two debate nights

1. Bernie Sanders: +60.8%
2. Elizabeth Warren: +58.9%
3. Joe Biden: +56.5%
4. Kamala Harris: +54.1%

5. Cory Booker: +41.9%
6. Pete Buttigieg: +40.8%
7. Julián Castro: +36.1%
8. Beto O'Rourke: +31.6%
9. Amy Klobuchar: +24.4%
10. Kirsten Gillibrand: +23.5%
11. Andrew Yang: +15%
12. Jay Inslee: +12.4%
13. Tulsi Gabbard: +10.6%
14. Eric Swalwell: +10.6%
15. Michael Bennet: +9.6%
16. Tim Ryan: +8.7%
17. John Hickenlooper: +7.7%
18. John Delaney: +6.7%
19. Bill de Blasio: +2.4%

20. Marianne Williamson: -2.3%

[Hoosier_Nick]

The first, and to a lesser degree the second, seems pretty accurate based off of what I watched. No real surprises to me.

[Eraserhead]

But Bad Atlas told me it was Bernie who flopped in the debate. Would they lie to me?

[eric82oslo]

Which candidates increased their number of Twitter followers the most in the first 15-20 hours immediately after their debates?

Top 5:

1. Kamala Harris: +59,600
2. Julián Castro: +54,900
3. Pete Buttigieg: +40,200
4. Andrew Yang: +39,400 (!)
5. Marianne Williamson: +31,200

Bottom 5:

16. Beto O'Rourke: +2,400
17. Eric Swalwell: +2,100
18. Tim Ryan: +1,500
19. John Hickenlooper: +1,300
20. Michael Bennet: +1,100


Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-first-democratic-debate-in-five-charts/

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm surprised that Williamson had any favorability before.

[eric82oslo]

I'm surprised that Williamson had any favorability before.

She has 2.6 million Twitter followers, only 50,000 less than Warren. She was not an unknown before the debate, unlike people like Ryan, Delaney or Bennet, who noone had heard of outside of their district/state.

[Eraserhead]

Which candidates increased their number of Twitter followers the most in the first 15-20 hours immediately after their debates?

Top 5:

1. Kamala Harris: +59,600
2. Julián Castro: +54,900
3. Pete Buttigieg: +40,200
4. Andrew Yang: +39,400 (!)
5. Marianne Williamson: +31,200

Bottom 5:

16. Beto O'Rourke: +2,400
17. Eric Swalwell: +2,100
18. Tim Ryan: +1,500
19. John Hickenlooper: +1,300
20. Michael Bennet: +1,100


Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-first-democratic-debate-in-five-charts/

It'd be amusing if someone had actually lost followers during that time period.

Yeah, that's pretty good for Yang though considering they barely let him speak at the thing.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm surprised that Williamson had any favorability before.

She has 2.6 million Twitter followers, only 50,000 less than Warren. She was not an unknown before the debate, unlike people like Ryan, Delaney or Bennet, who noone had heard of outside of their district/state.

I knew that, but for peoples' opinion to be affected at all is kind of odd to me. Actually I liked her more after the debate, not as a serious candidate, but as an entertainer.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

But Bad Atlas told me it was Bernie who flopped in the debate. Would they lie to me?

My impression of Bernie went up a little bit, but my impression of annoying, victimized Berniebros continues to go down (three years and running).

[eric82oslo]

Here are the eventual, final post-debate poll numbers from the joint 538/Morning Consult project:


1. Biden: 28.2% (-6.8%)

2. Sanders: 18.3% (-0.9%)
3. Harris: 16.3% (+9.4%)
4. Warren: 14.1% (+0.8%)

5. Buttigieg: 5.3% (-1.3%)

6. O'Rourke: 2.7% (-1.4%)
7. Booker: 2.3% (-0.1%)
8. Yang: 1.6% (+0.1%)
9. Castro: 1.5% (+1.1%)

10. Gabbard: 0.7% (+0.1%)
11. Klobuchar: 0.6% (+0.1%)
11. Gillibrand: 0.6% (-0.2%)
13. Bennet: 0.3% (+0.1%)
13. Ryan: 0.3% (no change)
13. Hickenlooper: 0.3% (-0.1%)
16. De Blasio: 0.2% (+0.1%)
16. Williamson: 0.2% (no change)
16. Delaney: 0.2% (-0.1%)
19. Swalwell: 0.1% (no change)
19. Inslee: 0.1% (-0.2%)


Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-kamala-harriss-new-voters-came-from/