Tallying up the national environment advantage Democrats have, and comparing it to the way the district voted in the 2012 Senate election and the 2014 gubernatorial election, Democrats ought to be a point or two shy from taking the district back. I think with a strong enough candidate however, and a wounded Republican party, it's entirely possible we see a Democratic win here.
I'm sorry, what?
Using the most generous estimates (likely voters vs all adults) 538's approval ratings average has his approvals around 3 points higher among likely voters than among all adults.
In addition, The popularity of the out of power party literally does not matter in midterms and specials. Obama and the Dems were more popular in 2010 than the GOP, and the GOP still got a massive wave that year.
