"Pro-life" Rep. Tim Murphy (R-PA-18) urged mistress to get an abortion

[McGovernForPrez]

Tallying up the national environment advantage Democrats have, and comparing it to the way the district voted in the 2012 Senate election and the 2014 gubernatorial election, Democrats ought to be a point or two shy from taking the district back. I think with a strong enough candidate however, and a wounded Republican party, it's entirely possible we see a Democratic win here.

[McGovernForPrez]

Tallying up the national environment advantage Democrats have, and comparing it to the way the district voted in the 2012 Senate election and the 2014 gubernatorial election, Democrats ought to be a point or two shy from taking the district back. I think with a strong enough candidate however, and a wounded Republican party, it's entirely possible we see a Democratic win here.

Don't count on it.  Trump's job approval is up to 10 points higher with likely voters than the public as a whole, and Congressional Democrats are even more unpopular in the same polls.  Not to mention that they couldn't win the Georgia seat.

I mean election fundamentals generally claim that the party in control of the white house typically does worse during special elections and midterms. Nothing about the 2017 midterms has contradicted this reality. Democrats lost the Georgia seat but they massively overperformed in almost every other race. This is because the party outside the white house typically has a more energized voting base. The congressional generic ballot currently gives the Democrats an 8 point edge, which seems somewhat consistent with previous special election results. Democrats lost the Georgia seat because the seat had massive turnout as a result of media saturation about the race. The Georgia seat had the highest turnout of any special election ever, and also saw the most money spent on a congressional race ever.

[McGovernForPrez]

Who does everybody think are the best candidates for this race? I'm leaning towards Mike Crossey and Gina Cerilli.

[McGovernForPrez]

I seems being nasty was the cause of Murphy stepping down. In a quick review I did not see this reason posted.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/10/7/1705083/-PA-18-Tim-Murphy-isn-t-out-because-he-s-a-hypocrite-it-s-because-he-was-an-abusive-boss

It is hard to believe that anyone would just be nasty like this in an office anyone posting here would love to have.

He resigned for a scandal about him having a mistress, who he forced to have an abortion.

[McGovernForPrez]

Republican candidate is a "Right to Work" advocate and voted to lower prevailing wages, unlike Murphy, who was union-friendly.

That might give us a fighting chance if he's alienated the unions in that area. Hopefully we have a strong candidate here. I think Gina Cerilli is probably the strongest since she's from Westmoreland county which is the most Republican leaning part of this district. If she can keep margins relatively close there and can do well in the Democratic leaning areas she has a decent shot at this. She's pro-life which in the context of Murphys seat probably makes her a strong candidate.