Do the Democrats have any shot at getting this seat or coming close?
Looking at the other R+11 seats and considering how many were competitive in 2008, it's not impossible. Dems won both PA-12 and NY-27 in special elections under comparable boundaries in the Obama era when Dems were riding high. It feels unlikely, but this is a seat where a shock Dem win is conceivable if the bottom is falling out under Trump.
Florida 8th R+11 Republican
Indiana 2nd R+11 Republican
Iowa 4th R+11 Republican
Montana At-large R+11 Republican
Nebraska 1st R+11 Republican
New York 27th R+11 Republican
Ohio 5th R+11 Republican
Oregon 2nd R+11 Republican
Pennsylvania 3rd R+11 Republican
Pennsylvania 4th R+11 Republican
Pennsylvania 12th R+11 Republican
Pennsylvania 18th R+11 Republican
Texas 2nd R+11 Republican
Texas 25th R+11 Republican